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|Author: ||da coach|
|Subject: ||RE: HEPS 2012 INDOOR|
Okay. I pulled the top six marks (only five times listed in the men's 4x8) in each event off the Ivy performance list, scored them 10-8-6-4-2-1, and totalled them.
*I went with the marks on the list. If some meet results from this weekend (or earlier) aren't yet on the list, they're not in this total.
*I may have screwed up the arithmetic, though I was trying to check as I went. I won't check it again.
*I'm only listing whole numbers. Half the teams actually get fractions after the whole number.
*I paid absolutely no attention to likely/unlikely/impossible doubles. If a guy was listed as leading both the 400 and 500 lists, I gave his team 20 points. If a top guy in the 3,000 hasn't posted a 5,000 time yet (*cough* Princeton *cough*), I didn't speculate on what might happen.
*I also didn't speculate on relay times; a majority of the relays don't seem to show anything like the kinds of performances we can expect at Heps.
Here we go:
Women's events minus relays and pentathlon
Cornell 102, Columbia 88, Harvard 74, Princeton 59, Dartmouth 50, Penn 24, Brown 24, Yale 11
Women's events with relays, minus pentathlon
Cornell 116, Columbia 98, Princeton 79, Harvard 78, Dartmouth 54, Penn 32, Brown 25, Yale 12
Women's events with pentathlon, minus relays
Cornell 102, Harvard 92, Columbia 88, Dartmouth 62, Princeton 59, Penn 25, Brown 24, Yale 11
All women's events
Cornell 116, Columbia 98, Harvard 96, Princeton 79, Dartmouth 66, Penn 33, Brown 25, Yale 12
The "stealth" candidate here is Harvard. With most of its points projected in the field/pent, people (like Cornell's spectators) may tend to overlook this team, which has the personnel to score much better in the relays than its current four points. This team is absolutely a contender for the championship.
Columbia is also very much in the hunt for the title, with potential points in nearly every event area and the possibility of even more than their projected 22 points in the mile/3k/5k. Even without Sharay Hale, this team could win.
The current favorite: Cornell, with top-six marks in every event but pentathlon--OTOH they scored in every event last year and were not very close to the win! If Columbia, Princeton (which *right now* doesn't seem to have enough bodies to defend the team title), and especially Dartmouth double (or triple?) their personnel in the longer races, Cornell's projected 27 points in the mi/3k/5k could be significantly reduced.
My pick: Cornell, but only because of homefield advantage. I think the meet will be a fantastic competition and still in the balance right through to the relays--and may actually hang on the last couple of field events.
Men's survey tomorrow. G'night.
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