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|Author: ||Team Analysis|
|Subject: ||RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it?|
Sprint Geezer wrote:
The idea of Rudisha making the 100 or 200 standards is totally laughable!
Why choose David when he has only had world class success at one event. He has not done anything to show he could be a short sprinter or a long distance ruuner. Why not speculate about someone like Geb or Rod Dixon who has been world class in 1500 to the marathon.
Personally, I don't think he could get the B standard in anything under the 400m or over the 5000. David is actually a 400/800 type could become a world class 1500m if he worked on it, but that would certainly be at the exclusion of the 400...you can't train to be a miler and sprinter at the same time.
By the way, on the McMillan calculator, a 52 second 400 is equivalent to a 12.4 in the 100. I realize not everyone agrees with his chart, but since you are a middle-distance runner, if anything your 100 meter time should be even slower than the 12.4 equivalent. That is why I have a difficult time believing the 10.96.
I am also finding it comical all of the people that think some of these distance runners could run in the low 10's for a 100. Even breaking 10.5 FAT for a middle distance runner would be very, very impressive.
I understand all the skepticism. Frankly, I don't think he could run 10.07 either. But what we have to remember is that nothing of this sort has ever ever ever been attempted. When was the last time a world class 800m runner completely quit his event and started training exclusively for the short sprints? Never, of course, because that would be about the stupidest thing you could do for your career. But until that happens, our estimates are very very high-variance. We really have no idea how he would do. Maybe he is already running his 400s at essentially his absolute maximum speed, and he wouldn't break 11. Or maybe he could completely revamp his technique, bulk up, and break 10. This sounds ridiculously fast, but then again, the whole thing is a ridiculous idea in the first place. I would hesitate to dismiss the possibility of a 10.07 just because we have no context to base our analysis on.
The other thing to keep in mind is that Rudisha is an absolutely transcendent athlete. I mean, he is the world record holder for the 800m. No one, ever, has run faster, and only three other people have come within a second of him. He has an incredible amount of athletic talent. He is focusing solely on the short sprints for 2-3 years, with 10.07 and 20.30 being his lifetime goals. Furthermore, he doesn't have to come anywhere near to his 800m level of performance in the 100m. He only has to be within 0.5 seconds of the world record, so achieving this would still affirm him as an 800m runner. Now maybe the gulf between 100m runners and 800m runners is just too great, but if somehow it isn't, if somehow an 800m runner could turn into a 10.07 100m runner, then wouldn't this be exactly the situation in which it would happen?
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