Can I Get Sub-3 on a flat marathon course? Cynics welcome.

You’re definitely up to the task.

But you really should run a 20-miler once or twice 3-4 weeks before race day.

I think you might suffer quite badly towards the end if you don't get in a couple of runs over 20 miles before hand

When was the 1:24 HM?

Keep in mind a lot can go wrong in a marathon. Most people don’t execute perfectly, especially in their first marathon. Having the fitness is just one aspect.

1:24 is borderline for a sub 3:00 but you may be faster now. You’ll likely need to execute flawlessly. You’ll also need factors outside your control to work in your favor, mainly weather (if it is hot forget about sub 3:00)

No, your mileage is too low and your long runs too short.

Happy for you to prove me wrong, through.

Oh and you definitley can run sub 3 but not this training cycle.

Thanks all you always steer me the right way. I’ll do 16-17 this next weekend, and then aim for 20 the next weekend (scary). The half was last May. Just anecdotally in much better shape currently and doing double the mileage.

The Obvious Answer wrote:

No, your mileage is too low and your long runs too short.

Happy for you to prove me wrong, through.

Oh and you definitley can run sub 3 but not this training cycle.

Correct. I doubt the OP will break 3:20 first time out.

Damn, harsh. Understand there’s plenty of pitfalls and my mileage is low. Then again feel like I know some guys who ran in the 3:05-3:15 range with not particularly impressive resumes. I definitely won’t go out too fast, and will up my long runs.

colorunner123 wrote:

The Obvious Answer wrote:

No, your mileage is too low and your long runs too short.

Happy for you to prove me wrong, through.

Oh and you definitley can run sub 3 but not this training cycle.

Correct. I doubt the OP will break 3:20 first time out.

You're definitely fast enough. My advice is to do a weekly 20-22 mile long run from now until 2 weeks out. Start them slow and finish at marathon pace (first long run, maybe 2-3 miles at MP, then add 1-2 miles per week). You'll suffer, but thank me later. I think the only adaption you need is these long runs, preferably with a couple miles on tired legs at goal pace.

Echoing everyone else here - more mileage is probably needed, both in terms of long runs (2h - 2h30) and overall weekly mileage in the 60+ range over a couple of months minimum.

You probably have the speed but not the endurance. For reference I have run a 2:53 marathon and no better than 1:25 half in the same cycle, but I'm on the slow-twitch side of the spectrum. Consistent mileage, with one 90min+ run and one 2h+ run per week, was key for me.

1:24 should translate to sub 3:00 as long as it was done on a similar course. But total weekly mileage weighs in a lot more in a marathon than it does a half. It's way easier to fake a half marathon with fewer miles. The marathon will expose you if you don't have decent weekly mileage.

Definitely do not feel like you have to do a 20 mile long run if you're doing less than 60 a week. Focus on quality miles. 18 miles is plenty if you're doing less than 60. I've blown past many people the last 10k who were hell bent on getting in their weekly 20-22 miles...as if the world revolves around that one day when my longest was 18.

colorunner123 wrote:

Correct. I doubt the OP will break 3:20 first time out.

3:10 - 3:15

Do you need more mileage? No. You can do it on 40mi/wk. I did at age 32 with 2yrs hobby jogging.

Do you need more long runs? Yes, probably. Unless you are an outlier, you will suffer...

I did 2.58.57 of 40mi/wk with peaks of 50mi/wk for 2 yrs with a half of 1.24. But my weekly runs always included a long run of 17-20mi.

You CAN do it, but I think you will suffer. Unless you have hidden endurance capabilities. 2-3 runs of 17-20 mi will not be enough. You need it for a longer time period. Next cycle no problem. This time? mmm...no.

Noted. Like the spectrum of takes here and I hope I do have some hidden endurance. I think I'm going to do a 17 or so mile run this week and then a 20 mile one before dropping down again. Getting mixed advice on that but I think mentally doing a 20 miler could be valuable. This cycle has been for fun to some degree, I know I'm taking some liberties and not going "all-in." I'm 30, so feel like if I need to ramp it up I can do that later.

Northener wrote:

Do you need more mileage? No. You can do it on 40mi/wk. I did at age 32 with 2yrs hobby jogging.

Do you need more long runs? Yes, probably. Unless you are an outlier, you will suffer...

I did 2.58.57 of 40mi/wk with peaks of 50mi/wk for 2 yrs with a half of 1.24. But my weekly runs always included a long run of 17-20mi.

You CAN do it, but I think you will suffer. Unless you have hidden endurance capabilities. 2-3 runs of 17-20 mi will not be enough. You need it for a longer time period. Next cycle no problem. This time? mmm...no.

My prediction is on pace for 2’58 at 18 miles, finishing on 3’11... The last 6 miles will be horrible.

Everyone responds to training differently, but imo going under 3 is harder than people make out on this message board. Most people need either a strong history of running or a good training block of 16 weeks averaging 50 mile + weeks that include at least one quality workout and a long run, with at least 2 of these being 20+ (preferably 3 or 4 of them).

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Getting mixed advice on that but I think mentally doing a 20 miler could be valuable.

Obviously long runs have their physical benefits, but I think the mental piece is a big one, too. You noted earlier that 20 is scary, which is certainly true and understandable if you've never done it. If 20 is scary, you don't necessarily wanna cross that threshold for the first time in a goal race. There's already enough anxiety.

Personally, I like the confidence I get mentally from a few 20 or 22 milers. I also think 16-20 miles with the first half easy and the second half at MP are beneficial mentally as well.

Good luck and keep us posted along the way and afterwards.

No. You don't run enough weekly miles.

You aren't fast enough to do it on talent alone, without hard work. 1:24 is not even close to being fast enough to make up for your weekly mileage.

If you decided to actually train and stop use excuses for not training enough, then sure.

Will do, thanks. Definitely going to try and hit at least one twenty-miler as it seems like it could be a good help.

suburbanxcore wrote:

Obviously long runs have their physical benefits, but I think the mental piece is a big one, too. You noted earlier that 20 is scary, which is certainly true and understandable if you've never done it. If 20 is scary, you don't necessarily wanna cross that threshold for the first time in a goal race. There's already enough anxiety.

Personally, I like the confidence I get mentally from a few 20 or 22 milers. I also think 16-20 miles with the first half easy and the second half at MP are beneficial mentally as well.

Good luck and keep us posted along the way and afterwards.

Love it. We'll see what happens.

well..... wrote:

No. You don't run enough weekly miles.

You aren't fast enough to do it on talent alone, without hard work. 1:24 is not even close to being fast enough to make up for your weekly mileage.

If you decided to actually train and stop use excuses for not training enough, then sure.

My prediction is between 2:58 and 3:06.

Good idea to include one 20-miler.