How many people out of over 7 billion can run a sub 30 second 200m and a sub 60 second 400m?

On my high school track team circa 1980 there were maybe 8 guys who could go sub 60.

The baseball team had maybe 8 more who could maybe do it.

So out of a school of 1800 (all grades) we had maybe 18, or 1 per 100.

The county had about 25,000 and maybe 18 more could do it.

And that is the problem, most of the population is not in school,

rather they are more than double that age, and now much slower.

The highest possible answer seems 1 per 1000.

I would guess that 35 years later obesity is a larger problem.

More like 1 per 5000, and maybe as bad as 1 per 10,000 that could go sub 60.

So that would be 700,000 to 1.4 million out of 7 billion, mostly men under 45.

Round number, 1 million. (1 per 7,000)

stateroftheoblivious wrote:

On my high school track team circa 1980 there were maybe 8 guys who could go sub 60.

The baseball team had maybe 8 more who could maybe do it.

So out of a school of 1800 (all grades) we had maybe 18, or 1 per 100.

The county had about 25,000 and maybe 18 more could do it.

And that is the problem, most of the population is not in school,

rather they are more than double that age, and now much slower.

The highest possible answer seems 1 per 1000.

I would guess that 35 years later obesity is a larger problem.

More like 1 per 5000, and maybe as bad as 1 per 10,000 that could go sub 60.

So that would be 700,000 to 1.4 million out of 7 billion, mostly men under 45.

Round number, 1 million. (1 per 7,000)

I will make this a job interview question. Just to see how a candidate thinks this through.

I think 75%+ men have the genetic ability to run sub 60 at some point in their lives if they trained.

I think if you made all then men run 400m at their current untrained level, I’d guess 1% of men above 15 and under 50 can do it.

How many % of females have the genetic potential to break 60? I have been sprint training for 7 months and could maybe break 30 flying and downhill in a 200 lol but am lightyears away from 60.

7 billion people have paused in their daily lives to reflect upon this burning question.

I ran 5 consecutive sub-30 second 200m’s in a 1000m race once and finished dead last.

I didn’t feel very impressed with my accomplishment.

round and round wrote:

I ran 5 consecutive sub-30 second 200m’s in a 1000m race once and finished dead last.

I didn’t feel very impressed with my accomplishment.

You identified with the wrong gender.

Looking and men and women, here is what I'd guess could break 60 seconds in the 400m.

Age 1-12: 1 in 1,000,000

Age 13-29: 1 in 100

Age 30-50: 1 in 10,000

Age 50-60: 1 in 100,000

Age 60+: 1 in 100,000,000

It works out to around 600,000 so 99.99% could not run under 60 seconds.

less than 250,00

The 2 times are not equal.

This revives the fascinating math question of whether it's possible to run a certain distance in a certain time without running at least one segment of a given shorter distance just as fast.

For example, it IS possible to run a sub 7 2800 without running a sub 4 1600 along the way:

59.9

59.9

59.9

60.5

59.9

59.9

59.9

But it's not possible when the shorter distance is a divisor of the original distance. You can't run a sub 8 3200 without at least one sub 4 1600.

sub 60 400 without a sub 45 300:

14.90

15.25

14.90

14.90

stateroftheoblivious wrote:

On my high school track team circa 1980 there were maybe 8 guys who could go sub 60.

The baseball team had maybe 8 more who could maybe do it.

So out of a school of 1800 (all grades) we had maybe 18, or 1 per 100.

The county had about 25,000 and maybe 18 more could do it.

And that is the problem, most of the population is not in school,

rather they are more than double that age, and now much slower.

The highest possible answer seems 1 per 1000.

I would guess that 35 years later obesity is a larger problem.

More like 1 per 5000, and maybe as bad as 1 per 10,000 that could go sub 60.

So that would be 700,000 to 1.4 million out of 7 billion, mostly men under 45.

Round number, 1 million. (1 per 7,000)

Agreed. This is the same way I was approaching the question and think it is very reasonable. Not only is age a big factor when extrapolating from high school kids, but also places in the world with less of a focus on athletics would have even lower rates at those peak ages. We at LetsRun truly are the genetic elite.

You all are terribly underestimating the potential of people. I believe that over 50% of men have the ability to run sub 60 in their prime.

Asking people to just go out and do it today, however, is a different question. Perhaps we have interpreted OP’s question differently.

fisky wrote:

Looking and men and women, here is what I'd guess could break 60 seconds in the 400m.

Age 1-12: 1 in 1,000,000

Age 13-29: 1 in 100

Age 30-50: 1 in 10,000

Age 50-60: 1 in 100,000

Age 60+: 1 in 100,000,000

It works out to around 600,000 so 99.99% could not run under 60 seconds.

Wow, if that is true, maybe I will change my focus, at 58 and untrained for speedevents I sometimes stride 30 seconds 200meters (flying start), just getting the speedendurance and at age 60+ I may be kinda 1 in a 100million.

Female runnnner wrote:

How many % of females have the genetic potential to break 60? I have been sprint training for 7 months and could maybe break 30 flying and downhill in a 200 lol but am lightyears away from 60.

Letsrun skewed statistics:

1) I was sub-60 400m so I am an average male.

2) I have have two daughters. One of my daughters' was a sub-60 400m person, so 50% of females should race sub-60 400m.

The Few, the Proud, the LRC High Achievers Team wrote:

Time is on my side,Yes it is wrote:

A little over 7 billion people in the world now. How many of them can run under these times?

Less than .1% That's right, 99.9% of the people throughout the world cannot achieve those times. What I'm also saying is that only 7 million people maximum can achieve that goal right now. Almost all of the people that could achieve those two time goals would be male and between the ages of 15-25.

And all 7 million of them are on LR clearly.

75 percent wrote:

I think 75%+ men have the genetic ability to run sub 60 at some point in their lives if they trained.

I think if you made all then men run 400m at their current untrained level, I’d guess 1% of men above 15 and under 50 can do it.

When you consider the number of fit runners and other wanna be athlete types who cannot run a sub 60 this question becomes much easier to answer. Out of the 15+ male runners I know that can run between 1:20 and 1:30 for the half, I am sure that NONE could break 60. I know this because the fastest one just tried the other day and best he could do on fresh legs was a 63. On the same day I witnessed some soccer players racing 100m that same day, clocking in at 15-17 seconds. They seemed to have decent acceleration and despite being able to "run" after the ball during most a friendly match, they were dying at the end of 100m. My guess is that well under 0.5% of all men between 15-50 can do it.

I once ran 50 seconds but now can only hit low 60s despite still running 17 minutes for 5k. Very few men over 25 can do it.