What percentage chance did Pre realistically have of winning Olympic Gold, had he lived and competed?

just wanna know wrote:

And what would have been his best event?

5000, 10,000, or marathon?

Zero percent. He was going to stick with the 5,000 and Viren was going to beat him. Same result had he opted for the 10,000. What sometimes gets lost in the Pre hype with him only being 21 in Munich is the fact that Viren was 23.

To be clear - I love Pre. I also love reality.

Zero percent chance, reindeer milk wins every time.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DpXVvEHF98A

GBohannon wrote:

just wanna know wrote:

And what would have been his best event?

5000, 10,000, or marathon?

Zero percent. He was going to stick with the 5,000 and Viren was going to beat him. Same result had he opted for the 10,000. What sometimes gets lost in the Pre hype with him only being 21 in Munich is the fact that Viren was 23.

To be clear - I love Pre. I also love reality.

Oh, and then we boycotted in ‘80 and Aouita had arrived by ‘84. Although, Pre may have had a shot at Cova in the 10,000 in ‘84. I guess it’s possible. So, I revise my post. He had a 5% chance.

Never a Gold, but for sure a Bronze or a Silver in the 76 10000.

Not much chance at all.

How come no one ever talks about Bob Schul, who actually DID win a gold medal?

GBohannon wrote:

GBohannon wrote:

Zero percent. He was going to stick with the 5,000 and Viren was going to beat him. Same result had he opted for the 10,000. What sometimes gets lost in the Pre hype with him only being 21 in Munich is the fact that Viren was 23.

To be clear - I love Pre. I also love reality.

Oh, and then we boycotted in ‘80 and Aouita had arrived by ‘84. Although, Pre may have had a shot at Cova in the 10,000 in ‘84. I guess it’s possible. So, I revise my post. He had a 5% chance.

I was a kid in '84 and it was weird to read about Pre in yellowed library books that made it seem like he was from 30 years previously. He really could have still been there competing like Lopes was.

Still, Cova would have ridden him like a show pony and Norpothed his ass on the last lap.

GBohannon wrote:

GBohannon wrote:

Zero percent. He was going to stick with the 5,000 and Viren was going to beat him. Same result had he opted for the 10,000. What sometimes gets lost in the Pre hype with him only being 21 in Munich is the fact that Viren was 23.

To be clear - I love Pre. I also love reality.

Oh, and then we boycotted in ‘80 and Aouita had arrived by ‘84. Although, Pre may have had a shot at Cova in the 10,000 in ‘84. I guess it’s possible. So, I revise my post. He had a 5% chance.

What if Pre had jumped on the blood doping bandwagon?

If Aouita could go from 14:05 at age 23 to 12:58 at age 28, then it's reasonable to suppose that Pre could have gone from 13:20 at age 23 to 12:58 at age 28.

Best chance would be to knock Foster off the podium in the 10k, which I think is doable if he hadn’t died.

~1% chance of gold in 5 or 10

10% chance of a medal in 5

45% chance of a medal in 10

Pretty cool that he ran 13:23 for 5,000 the day before he died, so we know what shape he was in.

I don’t understand why this is posed as a hypothetical. Prefontaine did live to run in the Olympics, and he did not win. So...mystery solved.

prefanatic wrote:

What if Pre had jumped on the blood doping bandwagon?

What if he was already on it?

Also his progression had completely stalled at 13:2low while the list of 13.1low runners kept growing.

None.

End of thread.

Move on.

Pre wouldn't have been able to beat blood doped Viren. The Finns had this cheat down in the 70's because of their X-Country ski racers. Lasse got that benefit. How many Finns won after the 70's? Nada.

The same percentage as there is alcohol in beer.

4th place. wrote:

I don’t understand why this is posed as a hypothetical. Prefontaine did live to run in the Olympics, and he did not win. So...mystery solved.

Mirut Yifter. I know they say scheduling misunderstanding. I see Yifter not racing 5000m due to being extremely stressed out by the violence which occurred soon after 10000m. If Yifter were arguing with coaches about violence in Olympic village, his 9 months in prison makes sense. It does not make sense that Ethiopian government imprisoned an Olympic medalist for making an error. If Yifter raced 5000m, that pushes Prefontaine down to 5th. Due to event scheduling conflict, Kipchoge Keino couldn't race 5000m. This talk of Prefontaine gold. I think he was the seventh fastest 5000m man in the Olympic village, 1972. Why is it assumed that Ben Jipcho couldn't have beaten Prefontaine?

Throw a rock into water and ecosystem is forever changed. Assuming Prefontaine was alive in 1976, does not mean he would have been healthy. He may have been in Hazelden-Addiction Treatment Center if alive in 1976. Why do people on letsrun think his drinking wouldn't have ruined him even if he were alive?

To assume Prefontaine would have earned a medal in 1976 also assumes an African boycott.

Rod Dixon was only six months older than Pre and was undefeated against him.

Pre's career would have lagged behind Dixon's career.

Mods, please ban Pre threads, it's getting tedious. wrote:

None.

End of thread.

Move on.

Move on yourself, ninny.

Bad Wigins wrote:

prefanatic wrote:

What if Pre had jumped on the blood doping bandwagon?

What if he was already on it?

Also his progression had completely stalled at 13:2low while the list of 13.1low runners kept growing.

True. He was actually drinking with Finnish runners the night he died (and his accident likely caused by alcohol).

Ackley wrote:

Rod Dixon was only six months older than Pre and was undefeated against him.

Pre's career would have lagged behind Dixon's career.

Dixon handled his beer better too.

Pre was always in the hunt on the European circuit prior to his death. He was a racer who could also hang in on a fast pace. Was also improving as his AR’s were set after Munich. Getting smarter as a racer as well. This being said he had a 75-80% chance of medalling in the Montreal 10k with 75% chance in the 5k. Beating Viren for gold in either I’d say 20%. Would be in the hunt in 80 sans boycott & also in 84 for a 10k medal. Often wondered what he could do in either the Steeple or Marathon where he would be a strong medal prospect. Lopes was 4 years older than Pre when he won the Marathon gold in 84. Marathon could have been Pre’s best event. Think Viren was blood doping & this is why my odds are much lower for gold vs medal.