Anybody up for predicting my HOU marathon time?

Forgot to add, ran 2250 miles in 2018.

3:05-3:15

Quite the range there! Thanks for chiming in.

Within a few minutes of 3:10. Good luck.

^ Also, I'd recommend doing longer fartlek workouts and intervals measured in miles rather than 400 and 800 meter interval workouts when training for marathon

Thansks! Depending on which side of that 3:10 I’m on I can live with that ;)

Thanks! I did 6x1600 early on in cycle and then 3x2 mile tempos a few times and 3, 2,1 tempo ladder another. FWIW.

What's your previous marathon pr? How long ago was it set? When you say "best training cycle" how much better?

Does Houston have a 3:00 pace group?

Ran a 3:15 last year. Mileage up for year about 15% and about 12% for cycle. More long runs, all other times faster even with more mileage in legs.

Houston has a 3:05 pace group; not sure about 3:00.

Want2getfaster wrote:

I’m 10 days out from Houston marathon and curious what some of you think I can run. Not my first marathon but my best training cycle ever.

Average mileage last 20 weeks: 52 mpw

Peak week: 68 miles

Long runs over last 20 weeks: 17, 19, 20 (2), 22, 24

Key workouts: 10x800 @ 3:02 (90 secs jog)

10x400 at 1:24 (90 secs jog)

2x2.5 at 6:29 with 3.5 mins jog between

17 with 13.1 at 7:03

Untapared races: hilly/hot 5k (19:27); half marathon (1:27:55 with 6:45/6:39 negative splits)

What do you guys think?

not sure 10x400 or 10x800 should go into "key workout" category for a marathon. I'd say around 3:06 given the rest of the info.

thoughts:

Some good longruns (hopefully they were within the last 13 or so weeks),

2x2.5 should be run around HM pace and HM pace is ~20-30s off MP.

17 LR with 13.1 @ 3:05ish pace is good for a workout.

HM race time*2 = 2:56 +10 = 3:06

Mileage kinda low but not too bad for the times we are looking at

Goodluck

-RunnerSam

I'm going to predict around 3:05. I would say just go out with the 3:05 pace group and see what happens! If you feel great start picking it up second half or later.

Want2getfaster wrote:

Ran a 3:15 last year. Mileage up for year about 15% and about 12% for cycle. More long runs, all other times faster even with more mileage in legs.

Houston has a 3:05 pace group; not sure about 3:00.

Ok I checked there is a 3:05. Nothing quicker and 3:15 is next slowest. I think you go with the 3:05 pacer.

I worry a bit about the weather. Rain forecast the days leading up to the race. If that slides could be a wet race. and it looks like best case temps are going to be starting off in the 50's and may be 60 when you finish. You did 3:15 last year in houston? I did 3:21 and that 36-40 degree weather was about perfect...

If you get good running weather, I agree with the 3:06.

Seriously mate? wrote:

3:05-3:15

Giving a 10 minute range isn't predicting anything.

I predict you'll run between 2:00-5:00

3:07 or thereabouts. Possibly a bit closer to 3:00, but not under.

Thanks for the replies all. I feel like all my workouts and results point to a 3:05-3:07 which would be awesome. Hoping the weather is good! Would obviously adjust if not.

3:05 or bust. Make it happen.

Want2getfaster wrote:

I feel like all my workouts and results point to a 3:05-3:07 which would be awesome. Hoping the weather is good! Would obviously adjust if not.

Yeah, go for the 3:05. Your training paces and race times are nearly identical to what I was running in 2017. And your 52 mpw average may be low by Letsrun standards, but it's much higher than mine. I ran 3:07:23 with a bit if a fade over the last couple miles. With your superior base, 3:05 should be very doable. Good luck.

Thanks Allen!

I don't know if you remember, but I had a thread last year around this time where I was hoping to break 3:10 and actually ran 3:15. You were super helpful on there. Looking forward to a little redemption this time around after the best cycle of my life.