2:50 Guy wanting an OTQ in 5 years

2:20?? Who’s to say that will be the qualifying time?

Needs to be 2:13:30 or a 1:03 half. This is why we suck.

Amateur runner wrote:

Hi, I have recently run a sub 2:50 over the marathon after following the Pfitz 18 weeks maximum 88km weekly mileage training. Earlier to that I was running in 50-60km/week range. What are my chances to go sub 2:20/OTQ by 2024 start, and who should I progress. I am 25 years old right now, with PB of 4:32 in 1500m and 17:30 in 5000m.

Your chances are slim...very slim. You can definitely improve a lot by increasing your mileage and putting more area under that curve. But improving more than 30 minutes(greater than 20%) in your situation is a tall order. Unless you've got an extra 25 lbs to lose it's going to be next to impossible with your talent level.

A sub 2:20 marathon is equivalent to a 30 min 10 k. So imagine you have to run faster than your current 1500 m pace for 10 k. It's a long way to go...

You don't just have to improve your endurance level with a lot of mileage (slowly increase to 100 - 130 miles per week) and a good amount of threshold work (long intervals, tempo runs, fast finish long runs every week). But you also have to work on your basic speed. A sub 2:20 marathon/30 min 10 k definitely needs 4:00 flat and sub 2:00 1500 m/800 m, too.

I have similar (slightly better I think) stats, also 25yo, and similar dreams hehe

Let’s do this!

So your 1500m best equates to about a 4:54 mile.

Improving from 2:49 to 2:19 is an improvement of ~69secs per mile. Improving an equivalent amount for the mile would put you at 3:44.XX for the mile. For the 5k it would be ~13:56. Think about that.

I think it's a pretty big ask to hit that time in 5 years. It would probably be more realistic to do this by 2028. It's hard to look at a goal that will take 8 years to achieve, but this is a big goal and it will likely take you 2-3 years to build to and get comfortable at 100-120 miles per week and then another 4-5 years of running that kind of mileage before you will dip under 2:19. I've seen other guys do this on a similar 8ish year progression (and around the same age as you), I've never seen anyone do it in half the time (assuming they are starting where you are, very talented guys will hit this time very quickly).

For comparison sake, a training partner of mine has a decent shot of hitting this time sometime this year and this has been his progression:

2008: 1:17:high half (probably pretty similar to what you could hit right now)

2009: 1:16/2:43

2010: 1:12

2011: 1:08:high/2:37 (not sure why this was so weak compared to the half)

2012: 2:35

2013: 10 miles in 51:35

2014: 1:07

2015: 10 miles in 50:56

2016: 1:06:high

2017: 2:32

2018: 1:06/2:25 (on 2:19 pace through 22 miles and blew up)

There's really no way to know at this point. Everyone improves at different rates and everyone has their own ultimate limitations. If you're serious, train smart and consistently, eat well and get a lot of good sleep for the next 5 years and see where it takes you. Avoid injury and be serious about addressing any issues as they come up. Keep a long-term view on your training (will this decision make me run better in 3 weeks or 3 months? Prioritizing 3 weeks at the expense of 3 months is usually a bad idea). Keep running a top priority in your life. You may have a decent idea of where things will pan out after the first 3 years, but even then improvement isn't always linear over time.

Same boat as OP but a little faster like the other person that chimed in (1:15 half). I'm not going to kid myself but I train hard and put in the miles. I'd like to find whatever my full potential and once you're more than 20:00 under your BQ time there really isn't much else to aim for. I'd like to run sub-2:30 within the next 3-5 years. I didn't come to running with a track background so maybe it's wise to focus on the shorter stuff? I've always written off having a slower 5k to being an endurance runner but maybe the trick to getting better is spending some time working on my speed.

What do folks think? In the spirit of this thread -- not trashing on OP & others working towards their goals -- what would be the right move now to try to bring the marathon down? At some point long tempos will stop working when your top end speed doesn't get any faster. I feel like if I don't improve at the mile/3k/5k then my ceiling for the marathon doesn't really move much. I'm also getting older (27) and you usually see people move away from the shorter stuff by then or around then but when I started running I just started running slow + long & eventually that got me somewhat fast but nowhere near OTQ level.

So should I focus on more marathons or 10k/HMs (along with high mileage)?

First to the OP, I would say doubtful, but 50km a week is basically not running so if you can get yourself over 160KM/wk or 10-12hrs/wk for a few years it could be possible as others have noted. Likely not going to happen if you don't set intermediate goals as well. I ran a 2:47 this fall for my first marathon (with slightly quicker 1500 and 35s faster 5k), I give myself less than 50% chance of hitting my lifetime goal of sub 2:30.

NewtotheSouthSide - it is worth taking a training cycle or two and focus on a shorter distance, 1mi 5k or 10k. I agree with the bolded statement, but disagree with your age being a limiting factor for the next ~5-7 years.

There was a good article in RunningTimes a few years ago about marathoners (who came from the track) that decided to focus on shorter stuff and ended up PRing. Paula Radcliffe was one of these with her 5k.

Not sure about what race to focus on, but focus on increasing your training volume.

- RS

"I drove my Honda Civic down the highway at 87 miles an hour - what are the chances of me qualifying for the Indy 500?"

I would just like to join in with the others in this thread that have the pipe dream or just want to see how close they could possibly get.

I'm in a similar spot to you but thinking about 10 years out though, which would be 2028 ish. I figure even if it's a 0.1% chance or lower it's worth finding out.

I'm M24 and started at the marathon about a year ago. No college running, cross country & track in high school but nothing special, 5 min mile etc. But I also didn't commit as seriously as I think I could have. Did 3 marathons last year, with some mildly structured training and a bit sparsely throughout the year, starting with a 3:29, then a 2:59, then a 2:46. For the 2:46 I peaked around 60mpw for a few weeks. Now I'm aiming to be a lot more serious and see how fast I can get. I've gone for a bold direct jump to high mileage with 3 weeks at 100+mpw going into the New Year, a down week at 50mpw with some days off due to a rib injury, and back on track for 100+mpw this week while adding in some quality work. Ideally I can go sub 2:40 this year and work from there!

Who knows what will happen but I want to find out! Cheers to everyone else chasing the almost certainly unrealistic pipe dream.

Grenio wrote:

"I drove my Honda Civic down the highway at 87 miles an hour - what are the chances of me qualifying for the Indy 500?"

LOL at comparing the American trials to the Indy 500. More like the Tuscaloosa Walmart dirt track series championship of the world.

I'm gonna bookmark this thread and keep it updated with my progress. Official OTQ-aspiring hobbyjoggers thread. Wooo go us!

DietBacon wrote:

I'm gonna bookmark this thread and keep it updated with my progress. Official OTQ-aspiring hobbyjoggers thread. Wooo go us!

Well count me in.....if all goes well I'll be running a 2 fitty low on a hilly course this Spring at age 34. What are my odds of getting to OTQ?

Going from 2:50 to sub 2:20 is not a realistic goal based on the information provided.

You need to average 5:20 pace for 26+; that's over eight 5K's at 16:34 per...

Did you finish your 2:50 marathon with a smile? Where you injury free during your training?

Where you not an a%^&*hole to be around when your where training?

The training it takes for most to run sub 2:20 is not something I really think you want to do...focus on what you have...

Best of luck to your training partner !! Based on his information he should be able to go sub 2:20; finding the right course and getting good weather is key...

It's that last 4 that gets a lot of people.

Have studied running since 1976; a lot of guys can dip under 30 for 10k and under 50 for 10 and run 61-62 for the 1/2 marathon and not run sub 2:20.

Knew a guy who was on 2:12 pace through 20 miles (years ago in St Louis at the old Olympiad marathon) and not make it; sub 2:20 is tough to do...

Sorry, I am kind of shocked when I see these posts. One, you better respect the work and talent required to run that fast. Two, I would concentrate on breaking 2:45 before I thought about 2:40. And three, at this point 2:20 is a wish, a hope, a dream, but for now you have a lot of work to do just to get under 2:45. Get busy rather than continuing this mental masturbation.

Igy