Hobbyjogger 53 wrote:
So here's my bet:
30% chance Kipchoge will break 2 in next 3-5 years. It doesn't look like he's going to settle at his current lifetime best.
20% chance Bekele will break 2 in next 2-3 years - he's GOAT but he's not getting any younger. He might have already done sub-2 if he switched from track to road a couple of years earlier
30% chance some new guy would come up and smash it before 2030
20% it won't be broken before 2030
I'll summarize for you:
100% chance neither Bekele nor Kipchoge will break 2.
Therefore there is 100% chance it'll be someone else.
As for whether it will be before 2030, I think so. The current WR really has the feel of being there 10 years or something like that, but when it starts falling again, I think it will quickly go below 2. I'll autumn of 2028.
The half WR will be a minute faster than it is now. Lets say 57:10. I think there are guys out there right now that could go sub 58, Kipchoge being one. Kam being another.