Can I cut 7 minutes and hit the OTQ?

HoustonBound wrote:

I don’t want to blow up again, but I also don’t want to sell myself short.

Your workouts look fine, but your biggest issue is your mental approach to this race. If you go into it all wishy washy you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. You have a good feel for your needed race pace from the results of your workout. Now go out there and execute. If you fail to meet your goal you have all of 2019 to run another marathon (or half marathon) and qualify for the Trials. You have nothing to lose. Go get it!

You are in a good spot. You have run 2:52. Getting the OT qualifier or a PR would be a great result. But, running slower than 2:52 would probably not be considered a success. So, don't run the race conservatively.

You really don't have to think. Go out at a pace that can get you the OT qualifier and pay close attention to your nutrition along the way. At some point, probably 15-18 miles in, go for it and get aggressive. If you blow up, so what? You are going to feel better knowing you were on pace for a very long time before you blew up .

I guess if I were you I'd rather be able to say I died and ran 3:00 but I was on pace for 22 miles than I didn't blow up and ran 2:55. You are in a good position to just go for it. You just need a good day.

The 20 miler with 8 hard looks good, but the other workouts make me wonder if 2:45 is a stretch. I had a woman I coach go 2:45:24 at Chicago in 2017 when it was in the low 70s. She and the other woman I coached were regularly getting in 6-8 miles of tempo intervals at 6:00 pace, often a touch under. I think she had a faster time in her on a cooler day, but most of your tempo work being at goal pace makes me think it's going to take a very good weather day and a very good performance from you. Any recent race's to help assess your race fitness relative to your workouts?

i thought that the qualifying time was 2:18

hmmmmmm wrote:

i thought that the qualifying time was 2:18

so you're dumb, sexist or both

OP

I'd recommend trying the 4%s a few times. You'll easily get 100miles out of them so might as well do some workouts in them. They take a bit of getting used to.

Good luck and find a pack to run aiming for 2:45. There should be one in a race that size.

I couldn't have run those workouts when I ran 2:51 almost 20 years ago so I would say you should certainly break 2:50 with ease. Unfortunately, I'm a guy so I was never near the OTQ.

My first half marathon I felt I was in about 1:25 shape (6:30 pace). I ended up linking up with a group of guys running 6:00 pace and stayed with them through 11 miles before I fell off their pace. Ended up running 1:19. You never know when you are going to have a great race. Take a chance and go for it.

Good luck in Houston.

HoustonBound wrote:

Since that time, I have been running 70-80 mpw in hopes of hitting the OTQ (2:45) in Houston.

Why would you run such low mileage if you're serious about the OTQ?

I don't think you would be over reaching too much to give it a shot. Your training is pretty close or spot on with 2 of my ladies who have run 2:44:xx and 2:43 in the last year.

I have 3 ladies who are going to try to hit the OTQ and will work together to run 6:15 pace at Houston, if you'd like to link up with them let me know.

First off Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays Houston Bound.

I believe you are on the right path to Trials Qualifier but would love to get more info to help you. I have coached 3 Olympic Trials Women Qualifiers in addition to all my male marathoners reaching PRs. I also have been a State XC Coach of the year in the past three years.

Some info that would benefit helping you is what marathon did you run 2:52 (with the positive split). What was your mileage going into that race (last 6-8 weeks especially). What are your 10K and Half-Marathon PRs??

You can also reach me via the following email:

MarathonCoachOTQ@gmail.com

Keep at it and always remember to enjoy the journey!

HoustonBound wrote:

My current PR is 2:52. While I was pretty happy with the race and am not one for excuses - it was in the upper 70s and I did have a 5 minute positive split.

Since that time, I have been running 70-80 mpw in hopes of hitting the OTQ (2:45) in Houston. Is this a realistic goal? If not, what pace does LRC suggest I am for? I don’t want to blow up again, but I also don’t want to sell myself short. For reference, the workouts were done in regular flats, but I have 4%s for Houston.

Recent Workouts

12/15 - 22 miles with first 11 easy, and then 2 x 4 miles with 1 mile recovery. 6:22, 6:22, 6:17, 6:15; 6:18, 6:14, 6:13, 6:16

12 /19 - 2 mile tempo (12:33), 3x800 (2:52, 2:52, 2:50), 2 mile tempo (12:21), 2x400 (83, 83). 2-3:00 between sets

12/22 - 20 miles with 10 easy, 8 at (6:20, 6:17, 6:11, 6:12, 6:09, 6:06, 6:02, 6:02)

Those are some solid workouts. I am doing Houston, too, and have begun tapering - I probably won't do more than a 12 miler from here on in.

As far as your 2:52 in the 70s, the humidity is a big factor. When I ran Houston in warm humid 2017 I calculated I was slowed by between 4 and 9 minutes depending on whose estimate you used. A year later in ideal conditions I was 9 minutes faster.

I'm also aiming for about a 2:52, but my workouts are not as fast as yours. I hope that means you're in 2:45 shape.

PS, I'm a 50s male.

Can I ask you what do you feel like you struggled with in the marathon? You said you blew up...but what does that mean for you? I ran one marathons so far and 6 minutes off the trials..aka same boat as you. I started to slow in the last 4-5 miles. I noticed I was breathing hard at the end which surprised me at the time but also I feel like I need to work on strength (I neglected hills only did them during my base and feel like I lost some power towards the end of my season) also the breathing hard I feel like will improve if I get my aerobic capacity even better. There's no point in worrying right now just go in it and do your freakin best! You'll learn something either way and can adjust from there!

70s makes a difference though...if the weather is cool it will help definitely.

I've run 2:44-flat twice now. One was on a perfect day and one was the cycle after that at Boston last spring so I think I improved a little more even though I ran the same time. I think my fitness and workouts are probably more akin to the 2:38-42 range but my indicator for sub-2:45 was how easy/difficult a 10 miler in 60 minutes feels. If that feels doable, in a high mileage week, in the middle or end of a long run, then you should be ready to click off 6:15s for 26.2. The workouts look great but appear to fall into the 2:46-50 range. I would want to see workouts where you're able to go 8 x 1 mile at 5:50, 4 x 2 miles around 5:45 pace, 3 x 3 miles @ 5:50-6:05, etc., all on short rest. What you're doing looks good and is working. You can definitely get to sub-2:45 in the future.

Go out and run hard at Houston. Since you had a big positive split I would set some conservative-ish goals. Open the front half at 1:23-24-25, try to negative split. It should be more manageable and you're bound to walk away with a PR regardless. Don't feel pressured for 2:45. Go out and enjoy the race. If you don't OTQ, maybe dedicate to a full spring/summer slate of shorter distance races and then target an October race like Chicago with CIM as a backup. I would guess that the paces I put above are closer to your 5k/10k paces versus half marathon for me (5:50). What's your 5k/10k? I would say 17:00-15ish/35:30-36:00ish is probably the ballpark you need or want to be in to realistically go sub-2:45. If your 5k/10k is already there then it looks like a strength problem. I would still work on shorter stuff but then look to add more miles, more long runs, more long tempos, to your next build. Good luck! Go out and crush Houston!

well yes, if you are saying you are going to start using vaporflys you basically have to just break 2:45 to match your 2:52 performance

and houston is a very fast course with typically best weather possible

at CIM there were lots of previously "2:5x" folks that OTQ, suddenly using vaporflys, dozens of them

just don't compare yourself to anyone who OTQ without them and enjoy in Atlanta 2020

What is your half marathon pr?

Bump. How’d it go?

BUMP -- I'm intrigued. How did you make out??

I was on pace through 30k, but faded and came up a few minutes short. I still had a nice 3.5 minute PR and am now into the 2:40s. I can’t wait to give it another go, probably at CIM!

Sorry for not checking back sooner. Life got busy after Christmas Break and I neglected LRC for awhile.

Good mob. Think about the process and you will keep improving.