Does today's sucker rally mean the global economic slow down is over?
Does today's sucker rally mean the global economic slow down is over?
prof88 wrote:
Nice job millennial dude!!.... Congrats.. . I own two properties and it is great being out in my boat knowing the properties are appreciating....and have absolutely NO idea where stocks are headed in the short term.....stay clear of bitcoin nonsense and other precious metals!!!!
After pulling out of stocks circa 2009 didnt work out for them, the same idiots told me to chase bitcoin in 2016-2017. Buffett said it has zero intrinsic value, worthless artificial gold.
Then the latest now in 2018-2019 seems to be a push for investing in precious metals like gold and silver and staying away from all other asset classes. These critics claim economy will collapse bigtime and that "fiat money" is worthless. These critics have very little money in general. I wonder why. They chase all the latest get rich quick fads
Sucker rally wrote:
Does today's sucker rally mean the global economic slow down is over?
Good time to get out of the market after this artificially stimulated rally.
Elon wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/1-my-tweet.pngThanks for the laugh.
You keep distorting things with your inflation-adjusted chart. Again, the historical return has been about 10- to 11% (if reinvesting dividends). What other investment comes even close to that. Even if you adjust for inflation, it comes to about 7% - again no other investment over the long haul comes anywhere close. The prof who suggested money market accounts - that is laughable - inflation eats up any measly return you might get on that. Here is the S & P chart with no inflation adjustment (you need to click on at lower right to move to more recent years):
https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/%5EGSPC#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwiY2FuZGxlV2lkdGgiOjEsInZvbHVtZVVuZGVybGF5Ijp0cnVlLCJhZGoiOnRydWUsImNyb3NzaGFpciI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcnRUeXBlIjoibGluZSIsImV4dGVuZGVkIjpmYWxzZSwibWFya2V0U2Vzc2lvbnMiOnt9LCJhZ2dyZWdhdGlvblR5cGUiOiJvaGxjIiwiY2hhcnRTY2FsZSI6ImxpbmVhciIsInBhbmVscyI6eyJjaGFydCI6eyJwZXJjZW50IjoxLCJkaXNwbGF5IjoiXkdTUEMiLCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsInRvcCI6MH19LCJzZXRTcGFuIjp7ImJhc2UiOiJhbGwiLCJtdWx0aXBsaWVyIjoxfSwibGluZVdpZHRoIjoyLCJzdHJpcGVkQmFja2dyb3VkIjp0cnVlLCJldmVudHMiOnRydWUsImNvbG9yIjoiIzAwODFmMiIsImV2ZW50TWFwIjp7ImNvcnBvcmF0ZSI6eyJkaXZzIjp0cnVlLCJzcGxpdHMiOnRydWV9LCJzaWdEZXYiOnt9fSwiY3VzdG9tUmFuZ2UiOm51bGwsInN5bWJvbHMiOlt7InN5bWJvbCI6Il5HU1BDIiwic3ltYm9sT2JqZWN0Ijp7InN5bWJvbCI6Il5HU1BDIn0sInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJ0aW1lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwic2V0U3BhbiI6eyJiYXNlIjoiYWxsIiwibXVsdGlwbGllciI6MX19XSwidGltZVVuaXQiOm51bGwsInN0dWRpZXMiOnsidm9sIHVuZHIiOnsidHlwZSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIiwiaW5wdXRzIjp7ImlkIjoidm9sIHVuZHIiLCJkaXNwbGF5Ijoidm9sIHVuZHIifSwib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJVcCBWb2x1bWUiOiIjMDBiMDYxIiwiRG93biBWb2x1bWUiOiIjRkYzMzNBIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJzIjp7IndpZHRoRmFjdG9yIjowLjQ1LCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fX19Freaking out wrote:
Good day today, my account is now -$5400. So glad I didn't panic sell when it was -$9000.
Be patient, my young grasshopper, be patient.
Not saying if won't be choppy, but you have learned a valuable lesson when saving for a house. Speaking about a house, try to pay 20% down so you don't have to pay the PMI.
Mr. M, the master
These charts will show how great the market has performed since 1950, delivering an annual 7% inflation-adjusted return over that time period. That is a remarkable return considering you had years like 1979 to 1981 when the inflation was 10 to 14%. Again, no other investment over the long haul performs anywhere close.
http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm
Sucker rally wrote:
Does today's sucker rally mean the global economic slow down is over?
The global economy is fairly flat.
-$4470 today. Will I break even this year?
Prepare for the apocalypse! wrote:
Typical LRC Boomer Logic wrote:
YES!!!! SELL! SELL!! SELL!!!!
I got some advice from a friend—a YUGE Trump supporter—he said sell your index funds—then put 1/3 into crypto, 1/3 into gold, and hide 1/3 under your mattress. You know this is solid, well-thought-out non-reactionary, fact based advice given my friends politics.
Great advice above! Sounds a lot like the type of advice you’d get from the brilliant Peter Schiff.
+1. Buy gold now!
Freaking out wrote:
-$4470 today. Will I break even this year?
Sell after the US-China trade deal is done and get that "house" money in the bank.
Problem is, many people have unrealistic expectations from investing in the market. You hear about stocks going up or down by 30 or 40% in a day and you may think you can get rich off of timing the market and retire early.
Market is about investing in good long term stocks and putting your extra money that you saved in the market so inflation won’t eat your money in the bank.
So you don’t want to be moving your entire bankroll in and out of the market trying to catch lightning in a bottle. You may catch it few times but other times, you may lose big.
So in the end, you need to find a way to generate more income and spend less to generate wealth. Then with your extra money saved up, invest and see your money grow over the long haul.
Agree
SAlly V wrote:
These charts will show how great the market has performed since 1950, delivering an annual 7% inflation-adjusted return over that time period. That is a remarkable return considering you had years like 1979 to 1981 when the inflation was 10 to 14%. Again, no other investment over the long haul performs anywhere close.
http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm
Stop being fact-based! Reality is NOT welcome here!
Freaking out wrote:
-$4470 today. Will I break even this year?
Some years you make money. Some years you lose money. If losing money for one year freaks you out then you have no business being in the stock market in the first place.
Stop Freaking Out wrote:
Freaking out wrote:
-$4470 today. Will I break even this year?
Some years you make money. Some years you lose money. If losing money for one year freaks you out then you have no business being in the stock market in the first place.
Thanks I already established in my first post that I know that now but don't have a time machine. But I appreciate the endless responses that I shouldn't have done what I did!
Freaking out wrote:
-$4470 today. Will I break even this year?
Look. Nobody knows. It's impossible to predict the stock market in the short term because all the predictions/probabilities/models are already factored into the price. The price is what it is at any given moment because tons of people (experts, computer programs, hedge fund managers, day traders, amateurs, etc) have collectively decided it has a 50/50 probability of going either up or down in the near future. That being said, on average, the market gains ~9% per year, so taking into account we had a 4% loss last year, we theoretically should see a 22% increase this year based only on last year. You can get a more accurate/probable forecast by taking more years into account. When I do this going back to various years between the 1990s to mid 2000s, it shows that growth over this time period is actually below the long term historical average of 9%, suggesting either a) the market is fundamentally different now than it has been over the last 50 years, or b) we should see significant growth over the next few years (despite interest rate hikes) to bring the average growth up to the ~9% average. Personally, I think AI is the next technological revolution that will drastically increase productivity and efficiency, and that that revolution will start in the next 5 years. It's already begun but is in its infancy.
Again, it is always entirely possible, regardless of what anyone says, that the market will crash 20, 30, even 40% or more in the next year. The larger the swing, the lower the probability, but the POSSIBILITY is always there. Smart investing is an imprecise science based on probabilities which themselves are based on incomplete and infinitely complex data.
Freaking out wrote:
Stop Freaking Out wrote:
Some years you make money. Some years you lose money. If losing money for one year freaks you out then you have no business being in the stock market in the first place.
Thanks I already established in my first post that I know that now but don't have a time machine. But I appreciate the endless responses that I shouldn't have done what I did!
You continue to miss the blindingly obvious.
If you have no business being in the stock market in the first place (this FACT has already been established) then it immediately follows that you should get out NOW. TODAY. It is moronic to sit there waiting for the market to just bounce up a little bit before getting out or waiting to see how low it will go. YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS BEING IN THE STOCK MARKET! I don't know how much plainer I can be with you.
And, no, having purchased some shares at some point in the past does not in any way obligate you to be a shareholder in the future. So you don't need a time machine to do the OBVIOUS right now. Get out. Stay out - unless and until 40% market drops don't cause you to sweat.
You're welcome!
I got this advice a few weeks ago when I was -$9200, now I'm -$4200. If I listened back then I would have $5000 less. I guess that's a drop in the bucket for some people.
My grasshopper-depending on what type of index fund, it should price out around 3500-3600 after today. Keep my mantra in mind about selling, regardless of where the loss (or possibly gain) is, upon a US-China trade deal. A lesson learned is the path to wisdom...
Stop Freaking Out wrote:
Freaking out wrote:
-$4470 today. Will I break even this year?
Some years you make money. Some years you lose money. If losing money for one year freaks you out then you have no business being in the stock market in the first place.
And if $7k makes you freak out, then maybe reconsider purchasing a home. What are you going to do when your home value drops $70k? Or when the seller counter offers $10k higher? Either seems possible in the current housing market.
Sorry if this has been stated before. I did not go through all 8 pages of comments.