It's encouraging to see that data point as you're both quite similar to me: mid-30s male, no serious running background, poor natural speed, have run aimlessly over the years for fitness but have gotten more serious and upped my mileage to 40--50/wk with specific training over the past four to five weeks (workouts, long-ish runs, easy runs). I plan on running my first marathon in Spring 2019 with the perhaps ambitious goal of a BQ (which may require sub-3 in the 35--39 age bracket -- check out Boston's web site for previous years' qualifying cut-offs). I'm running a HM this weekend and will increase my mileage for the marathon.
I ran 8x800m last week averaging 2:58 while aiming for 3:00 with 60s walking rest. I could have done a few more but didn't want to overextend myself because of this weekend's HM. Other recent workouts have been: one 6x1mi @ 6:00 pace with 90s rest cutting down to 60s prior to the last two; two 3x2mi @ 6:15 to 6:20 pace with 3:00 rest; and a 5mi tempo @ 6:25 pace on tired legs. I haven't run a race in eight years and don't know how these workouts will translate to race pace -- I suppose that's why it's good to race often. FWIW, I ran the workouts in trainers but I'll wear flats this weekend.
The HM course looks to be fairly flat and I plan to set out at 1:25 pace (6:30 miles) until halfway and pick it up from there if I'm able. I may fail spectacularly but I'll give that a go and report back -- I like when people follow up prediction posts with results.
I'm certainly no expert either, but I'll guess you're in 18:30--19:00 5k shape and that 3:05 is certainly possible, presuming you've run at least a few long runs of 16, 18, 20mi with a few late miles @ MP in those.
Good luck!