I was mostly done with a race report and ended up losing all that I typed. Here it is take two. Sorry this is a bit long and you can skip to the race section.
Expo day (the day before)
I wake up early and see rain in the forecast and that it was wet outside so I opt for the hotel treadmill for about 3miles. We end up doing a lot of walking around between finding a place for breakfast, lunch, dinner, packet pickup, and some light sight seeing. I estimated that we did 5-6mi walking and I was concerned that it was bit too much so I called it a day. Knowing that I would have to get up early I go to bed at 8pm. At around 8:30 I hear a sound that sounds like some sort of alarm but to me it sounds like it is something outside the hotel. After a minute or two my wife decides to investigate and when she opens the door we both realize that it is the fire alarm for the hotel so we get reasonably dressed, grab our coats, car keys and get ready to exit the hotel. We get to the hallway and there is a hotel employee at the end of the hallway and he calls out to us that it is a false alarm. Back to bed I go.
Race Day - Pre-race
I set my alarm for 3:30am but I am awake at 3:00am so I take care of my pre race breakfast, coffee and BM. Start line buses start loading at 4:45am and depart at 5am so I head out the door at 4:40. We are allowed to stay on the buses for as long as we want to stay warm. With the exception of the potty break I remain on the bus till 35min before race start. I make my last potty stop, check out the corral area, start to shuffle around for a warm up and shut that down as soon as I return to see the corral is starting to fill up. The corral is rear loaded and I had to make my way up to the 3:00 estimated section which is closer to the front. Once in the the corral I strip off my pants and two extra shirts. I was reasonably comfortable waiting in the corral. Someone in the corral noted that it wasn't too bad. It most have been the mass of bodies. While I was more comfortable than expected I figure it is better to be more safe than sorry when a goal race is on the line.
The Race
I found myself corralled near the 3:00 pacer and as we made our way to the start line I let myself fall back a bit so the 3:00 pacer would cross the start line seconds ahead of me. This was a part of my backup plan. If I faded late in the race and found that the pacer caught up to me I would do my best to latch onto that group to hang on for the sub 3. I will admit that despite my worries about the cold weather, the weather turned out to be darn near perfect. While the temps at home have been somewhat similar, it has been the windchill that has made the cold that much worse.
5k 20:46, 6:41 pace
Note that what I actually saw at each 5k split is 47sec slower. I found myself surrounded with good number of runners with similar time goals and just sort of ran what I felt was about right. I did a half @ss job of checking pace on the watch in the first mile and the first split comes in at 6:40. I must have been 2-3miles in when I just switch my watch over to the HR display and leave it there for the rest of the race. My HR was in the lower end if what I would see for a tempo run and top end for MP efforts. I figured my HR would settle in lower towards the middle of the race. So I stick with the current effort.
10k 41:16, 6:39 pace
Seems like I picked up the pace a bit for this 5k split but I didn't really notice. I see something like 42:0x on the clock so I figure I am on target. Still got a good number of other runners around me.
15k 1:02:29, 6:43 pace
Still looks good to me. I'm noting that this split is probably pretty close to being equivalent to the 10miler I ran last March. It was somewhere around this time there I notice two women running together. I think I traded places with them a couple of times and things sort of settle out with them remaining a few strides in front of me. Their pacing seems to be fairly consistent so I just settle in behind them.
20k 1:23:40, 6:44 pace
This 20k comes in faster than the 20k race I ran this past August. Everything seems to be going pretty well. Still seeing those optimistic splits on my watch, but they are coming so far in advance of the mile markers I just assume that the splits could be as much as 10sec too low.
13.1mi 1:28:07, 6:43 pace
Halfway there! At first I was a bit disappointed because the time that I saw was 1:28:5x because it seemed to me I should have had more of a time margin. I estimated that I was ahead of 6:45 pace but this time did not reflect it. I then realized that I need to double the time delta here and then the time seemed better. I seem to recall feeling a bit of fatigue at this point, but I just keep up the effort hoping that I can keep this up till the finish line.
25k 1:44:20, 6:43 pace
I see 1:45:xx and this is where I start doing some rough mental math. I realize that I am trying to working out the time for a 50k which is all wrong. I'm starting to feel the fatigue wondering if I went out too hard. I keep the goal in mind and try to stay at a steady effort.
30k 2:05:08, 6:43 pace
I just keep telling myself to keep the effort up. I end up dropping the two women that I had been following as they slowed through one of the hydration stations where I did not bother to take anything. I had skipped a water stop or two because I ended up with a mild side stitch after taking water at one of the previous stations. They used 8 or 10oz paper cups at each of the stops and I able to get in more hydration per station than any previous race.
35k 2:26:22, 6:44 pace
I'm still hanging on and keeping the effort up. I may have picked up some water or Nuun at one or two of the hydration stations, but I just don't remember. I pass more runners than expected and there are less runners around me.
40k 2:47:51, 6:46 pace
As has happened in the past, this is where I really hemorrhage time. Not nearly as bad in the past. At around mile 22 my left calf got twitchy and and was on the verge of cramping. I tried to adjust things a bit to avoid the cramps and I seemed to succeeded. I really felt close to having a cramp in my left calf but it never did happen. Do I need to state the obvious. This is where it really got tough for me. The pace dropped off the most for miles 24 and 25. Once I saw the time at the 40k mat I told myself that all I needed to do now is finish the last 2k in 10min. Also, my HRM got stuck on a high reading around the 23 mi mark and flatlined there for the rest of the race. Honestly, that HR probably reflected how difficult it felt for me at this point. I told myself to forget the HR and just keep the effort up and make the goal time.
The last 2k
I just kept the effort up and did my best to make it to the finish in time. I picked it back up a bit here knowing that I was in the home stretch and this stretch had the best crowd of the race.
There were a couple of things that helped motivate me through the race. At the top of the list was both stating here and with my local runner friends that my goal was sub 3. How can I go back and say I missed my goal? During the race I tied to keep in mind that I need to run my own race and not pay too much attention to being passed or to passing other runners. My race was solely against the clock because I had my goal time and because I knew that there it was very unlikely that I would be within the top 3 for my AG. I can't believe that I got the sub 3, that I got the sub 3 with a good margin, and that I managed to maintain a reasonably good pace through the final 10k. Honestly, I got a lot of good advice from this thread. Some of it may have come in those little nuggets of wisdom that may go by unnoticed by many. I did mention some problem around my quads and I wish my legs were a bit more fresh going into the race. While my quads were not much of problem in the race I did notice my quads throughout the race. After the race my quads have been feeling pretty rough. Everything else is good though.
The Taper
Mon. 60min Easy 7.6mi @ 7:55avg
Tues. 6.2mi as 2E+2X1T+2E (6:33, 6:20)
Wed. 4.0mi Easy 8:20avg
Thurs. 4.2 Easy 8:10avg
Fri. Off travel
Sat. 25min treadmill 3.1 @ 7:57avg
Sun. Race
Smoove, I saw your comments on the CIM course. I'll try to get something together while I am vacationing here on the West Coast. Just to give you some foreshadowing, I do think the consistent weather is a big factor here. There is a couple of other factors at play though. Maybe I should give a make another post as full review of CIM as a participant although some may come through it my race report above.