As you already know, these are not just my claims -- I'm repeating quotes from the link you provided from the Guardian, and the findings of the WADA-IC regarding the questionable opinions from the "experts". 1) I didn't compare this to the 1 in 7 athletes, but looked at the makeup of the podium. Armstronglivs talked about finding most of the 43% on the podium, something you suggested was supported by the Sunday Times data. For the 5K and above, the numbers from the Sunday Times suggest that the podium is only 28% or 11% "suspicious", or, subtracting from 100%, respectively 72% or 89% "not even abnormal". In an absolute sense, these are not large numbers, but a minority. To put it differently, there is no evidence that these 72% or 89% of medals won come from doped athletes, or are over-represented in the 43% (a number itself which is contaminated by sprints and field events, not to mention lacking a significant correction recommended by the study authors to eliminate a proven problem of fast-responding.) 2) Not sure what you want to represent by the math. If you want to compare "suspicious athletes" to "non-suspicious athletes", we need to count how many athletes won the other 304 medals, and compare 76 to that number. We also need to understand it is inflated by Russian race-walkers and Russian women on steroids, to put EPO and blood doping, particularly alleged East African doping, in context.
casual obsever wrote:
Most of your claims are plainly wrong, as you know, but btt before I head out:
Here are two direct quotes from the Sunday Times article:
1) "1 in 7 named in the files has recorded blood tests results described by an expert as “highly suggestive of doping or at the very least abnormal”. "
-> 1/7 = 14% overall
2) "A total of 146 medals had been awarded to 76 athletes who had given suspicious blood tests — a figure that included 55 gold medals. "
76/146 = 52%
52/14 = 3.7. Yes that includes double winners. Unless the average medal winner won almost 4 medals, medal winners were more suspicious. (One could go and count that...)
Gold medals are 33% of the overall medals. 55/146 = 38%. Gold medal winners were slightly more suspicious than the other medal winners by a factor of 38/33 = 1.15.