I haven't had a race on a fast course yet this season (combination of sickness, mud, and hills)... I have 3 races left including footlocker south (and my regional/state courses aren't particularly fast), which I am running just for fun with my team mates and to hopefully get a good PR this season. 16:20 so far and would love to run under 16.
Kids seem to run fast there. I've only run the course once and I was injured so really shouldn't have been racing. I had run 15:50 a month before and felt like I was in better shape but I wasn't close to sub 16. One issue was I didn't get out fast as needed. Be sure to run the course beforehand. There's a pretty quick downhill which leads right into a quick turn so if you run improperly you could fall or run off course or at least lose a lot of momentum there. The championship race will be very crowded so you could get pulled to a fast time but you also could get lost in the mix. I think you have about half a mile to get in a decent position before any turns. If you've run 16:20 on a sorta tough course then I'd say you have a good shot if you feel good that day. It's after Thanksgiving though so you may be carrying some extra weight.
They call it the McAlpine Speedway for a reason. The course is short and font let anyone else tell you different. It's like claiming a PR on a Revel course. For years the South regional runners would run nationally competitive times in the Footlocker Regional and then get their a$$e$ kicked at Nationals. I haven't watched the regional results in a couple years but I guess it is still the same story.
I actually heard they changed the course to be accurate. But you may be right. Here's the Strava segment: https://www.strava.com/segments/7341938 in case the OP wants to see the profile.
The course is very fast. Almost all on mostly dirt path so a quick surface if not muddy. Ran there a few weeks ago, my first time in the area. There’s one hill but it’s quick and not overly steep. You’ll lose a bit of time on the slightly steeper downhill but overall, very fast