Give me an exact percent chance that I will break 16:50

High School Running
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  • georgia stud

    Anonymous Poster

    5 years ago 10/20/2018 3:44pm EDT

    I ran 17:19 at my Conference meet in good conditions. Next Saturday I'm racing again on the same course, same conditions. However, with 600 to go I tried to start my kick and but couldn't as I had to take a crap (and the last 600 is largely uphill), so I could only maintain the same pace. Probably only about 3-5 seconds but still. I also was not super mentally tough (could have pushed it more from 1.5-2.5, maybe 5-10 seconds). I'm going to absolutely kill myself next weekend and not make the mistake of eating so close to my race next time. I should also be closer to my peak.

    Obviously the exact percent chance thing is a joke, but it would be pretty fun to see where my odds stand.

  • Mid-Michigan, baby.

    GBohannon

    Member since 06/24/2017.

    1,442 posts. Last post 1 week ago.
    5 years ago 10/20/2018 5:09pm EDT
    re: georgia stud

    49.99%

  • One%

    Anonymous Poster

    5 years ago 10/20/2018 5:11pm EDT
    re: georgia stud

    1%

  • stateroftheoblivious

    Anonymous Poster

    5 years ago 10/20/2018 8:17pm EDT
    re: One%

    50.00% chance of success.

    50.00% chance of failure.

    Either you will or you won't.

    Strangely, that is the same odds of an asteroid striking earth tomorrow.

    Either it will, or it won't.

  • Statistics nerd

    Anonymous Poster

    5 years ago 10/20/2018 9:47pm EDT
    re: stateroftheoblivious

    That's not how probability works, bud.

  • yabadaba

    Anonymous Poster

    5 years ago 10/20/2018 10:15pm EDT
    re: georgia stud

    3%

    You're over-analyzing way too much. You're more likely to run slower than faster at this point.

  • reg poster

    Anonymous Poster

    5 years ago 10/21/2018 12:48am EDT
    re: georgia stud

    Think less, hurt more

  • vxcxcvx

    Anonymous Poster

    5 years ago 10/21/2018 1:31am EDT
    re: Statistics nerd

    Statistics nerd wrote:

    That's not how probability works, bud.

    There is 50% chance that it does work that way.

  • Haha

    Anonymous Poster

    5 years ago 10/21/2018 1:36am EDT
    re: vxcxcvx

    vxcxcvx wrote:

    Statistics nerd wrote:

    That's not how probability works, bud.

    There is 50% chance that it does work that way.

    Lmfao

    OP: 0.0%, with repeating zeroes

  • STATS god

    Anonymous Poster

    5 years ago 10/21/2018 5:49am EDT
    re: georgia stud

    georgia stud wrote:

    I ran 17:19 at my Conference meet in good conditions. Next Saturday I'm racing again on the same course, same conditions. However, with 600 to go I tried to start my kick and but couldn't as I had to take a crap (and the last 600 is largely uphill), so I could only maintain the same pace. Probably only about 3-5 seconds but still. I also was not super mentally tough (could have pushed it more from 1.5-2.5, maybe 5-10 seconds). I'm going to absolutely kill myself next weekend and not make the mistake of eating so close to my race next time. I should also be closer to my peak.

    Obviously the exact percent chance thing is a joke, but it would be pretty fun to see where my odds stand.

    50/50

    Either you do or you don’t

  • yung nasty

    Anonymous Poster

    5 years ago 10/21/2018 10:24am EDT
    re: georgia stud

    You call yourself a "stud" yet you only ran 17:19??? Kids in Georgia must be slow.

  • maybenotgeorgiaeither

    Anonymous Poster

    5 years ago 10/21/2018 10:48am EDT
    re: yung nasty

    Georgia doesn't do Conferences either, so who knows?

  • registered

    LoneStarXC

    Member since 08/09/2017.

    3,000 posts. Last post 1 year ago.
    5 years ago 10/21/2018 10:54am EDT
    re: georgia stud

    1%

  • georgia stud

    Anonymous Poster

    5 years ago 10/21/2018 11:00am EDT
    re: LoneStarXC

    I will be sure to update you all in 6 days.

  • registered

    Duane

    Member since 08/19/2018.

    410 posts. Last post 4 years ago.
    5 years ago 10/21/2018 11:14am EDT
    re: georgia stud

    you get what you ask for, you need to be more precise with your question, which I think is to get an accurate assessment of your chance to break 16:50

  • Georgia stud

    Anonymous Poster

    5 years ago 10/27/2018 2:03pm EDT
    re: Duane

    I ran 16:50. Honestly didn't expect to run that fast. I know I didn't break it but I ran a 29 seconds PR

  • registered

    FlyingFast

    Member since 02/23/2018.

    437 posts. Last post 5 years ago.
    5 years ago 10/27/2018 2:37pm EDT
    re: georgia stud

    Think more like the Kenyans. They don't dwell over the past or obsess with predicting the future. They will just look towards the future and say, "I'll do it next time" with a big grin. Race day comes and they just run, trying out new strategies and going out hard. Sometimes they run extremely fast times, but sometimes they even DNF.

    Just do it.

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