Which will break first, 1:40 for the 800 or 2:00 for the marathon and why?
On a related topic, who's time is more impressive?
Rudisha's 1:40.91
or
Kipchoge's 2:01:39
Which will break first, 1:40 for the 800 or 2:00 for the marathon and why?
On a related topic, who's time is more impressive?
Rudisha's 1:40.91
or
Kipchoge's 2:01:39
1:40 will be broken first, but still not for quite a while. Maybe sub-1:40 around 2030-2035 and sub-2:00:00 by 2040.
So basically, whoever breaks 2 hours for the first time has probably not even began running yet.
Sub-2 will fall before (or at) Berlin by next year.
1:40. Why? Because Emmanuel Korir.
The 800m record
statfanatic wrote:
1:40. Why? Because Emmanuel Korir.
LOL, let's pretend the Kenyan doping busts will suddenly stop and they've caught all the cheats.
Jakob will probably crush 3:26 before anyone breaks 1:40.
bearcatRun1998 wrote:
Which will break first, 1:40 for the 800 or 2:00 for the marathon and why?
On a related topic, who's time is more impressive?
Rudisha's 1:40.91
or
Kipchoge's 2:01:39
Kipchoge will break 2:00 in his next non-eligible attempt. He should do this then stop chasing times to collect fees and prize money IMO. What else is there? Maybe the Half WR?
Sub-1:40 is more likely than sub-2:00 on a legit course. No idea who could do either.
It's hard to say - I wouldn't bet one way or another.
But, what we do know is that monetary incentives keep growing for marathons in ways that they are not for track running. Based on economics, then, I'd guess we'll see sub 2 hours first. But of course it takes only one transformative 800m runner (and/or new types of sauce) for it to go the other way.
I think 2 hours will be broken first. Rudisha (2010-2012) bettered Kipketers world record (1997), before it was Seb Coe (1979 and 1981). So there is just one runner in 15-20 years who can break the 800 m world record.
The marathon world record was broken 5 times the last 10 years, and quite often from virtually unknown runners like Makau, Kipsang and Kimetto...
1:40 for 800 seems more likely.
If my math was right, the 800 WR only needs to be taken down by 0.9%, while the marathon WR needs to be trimmed by 1.36%. So going purely on the math. Might be more financial incentive for the true sub-2:00 'thon.
I can tell you’re trolling but I’ll bite.
Kipsang has won Tokyo, Berlin, New York and London twice. he has an Olympic bronze medal and has gone under 2:04 4 different times.
Patrick Makau won Berlin but has also previously won half marathons going sub 1 hour 8 different times.
Dennis Kimetto set a world record in the 25k race “the big 25” in Berlin, won Tokyo, Chicago and eventually Berlin.
To say these 3 runners were unknowns is way off the mark, a lot of hardcore running fans would know all of these people. Just because they aren’t legend like Kipchoge or Bekele doesn’t mean these guys were unknown.
800 will be broken first
Improvement in track surfaces will aid in lowering times.
2:00 will never be broken
Coevett wrote:
statfanatic wrote:
1:40. Why? Because Emmanuel Korir.
LOL, let's pretend the Kenyan doping busts will suddenly stop and they've caught all the cheats.
Jakob will probably crush 3:26 before anyone breaks 1:40.
Let's not pretend Jakob isn't on some reindeer milk.