mathguy96 wrote:
W. Buffett wrote:
Your salary must not be very much...
In the past week, the S&P 500 has lost roughly 6%. Let's say 'The Big Loser', who is close to retirement, had $4,000,000 in the stock market last week. A 6% loss would mean a loss of $240,000, putting their salary at $120,000. Perhaps that may be low to the average LR user, but I'd be pretty pleased with it.
Your mathematical reasoning and deduction is very close actually. My actual numbers are all a bit higher, but you are in the ballpark.
In 2008-2009, I was 90% equities. Rode the market down to its trough and lost many nights of sleep (literally) along the way. Stayed in the market and added to my positions at lower prices. My portfolio rebounded and then some, as my equity positions are up 300+% since the market bottom. At the time, I had set a goal to be able to retire early and or at least be financially able to walk away by age 45-50. Today, my portfolio is around 75-80% equities. Most of my retirement assets are indexed. My taxable account, where I hold individual stocks, is 30% cash sitting on the sidelines waiting for opportunities and because the market valuations have been a bit rich for the last couple of years.
To the poster saying that someone close to retirement would not be this heavily invested in equities.... Well, I am.
I have more than enough to live the same lifestyle in retirement if I walked away today, even if the market were to correct 20%. Actually a better lifestyle in retirement as I won't be working. At my age, I still have 40+ years of life expectancy. There is no need to be conservative with that type time horizon. In addition, a lot of my portfolio will pass along to my kids, so the horizon of my estate is even longer. What percentage of equities would you allocate to a portfolio with a 75 year time horizon then? Given that inflation is ticking up, the Fed is raising the Fed Funds rate, and last week, the long end of the Treasury yield curve started finally increasing, would you really want to be holding bonds right now? Go to cash or money markets? Good luck keeping up with inflation which is running at 2.5-2.8% (depending on which indicator you look at). I'm comfortable with my equity position even if we see a further correction over the coming weeks.
Companies will begin Q3 earnings releases next week. It is very likely that forward guidance for 2019 is not going to be a positive sign for the market coming up against tough 2018 comps post-corporate tax rate cut. I expect substantial volatility the next few weeks of earnings season.