Katelyn Tuohy is racing at Holmdel Park NJ tomorrow. If she breaks 16:00 it will be the greatest HS achievement ever.

and lost I see, so presumably nothing left on the table...but the winners I have seen so far in the low 16s have been 425ish milers

Wonder what the N. Rockland XC routine is for meets like this? Did they drive down yesterday after school, and jog the course before it got too dark? Then try to get a decent night sleep in a local hotel? To me, that would seem better than waking up early this morning to drive about 2 hours down to Holmdel, and jog course for first time ever early this morning. I was not a fan of long morning bus rides prior to a race.

routine? wrote:

Wonder what the N. Rockland XC routine is for meets like this? Did they drive down yesterday after school, and jog the course before it got too dark? Then try to get a decent night sleep in a local hotel? To me, that would seem better than waking up early this morning to drive about 2 hours down to Holmdel, and jog course for first time ever early this morning. I was not a fan of long morning bus rides prior to a race.

I was thinking this, too. The Varsity race in which KT is running isn't until 3:50 but her school had girls running in JV and Freshman races way earlier in the day. Has KT been at the course all day?

No, she won't run 16:00. Women/girls generally run 30 seconds per mile slower so a 16 would be equivalent to a guy running 14:30. A 16:30 is more realistic.

The problem with your analysis is that she is not a general girl. Her talent gets better as she goes up in distance.

Probably more than that already. Average guys are running 16:40 today.

Runner1218 wrote:

The problem with your analysis is that she is not a general girl. Her talent gets better as she goes up in distance.

If you come women's WR's from the 2-mile to the marathon they are all around 30 seconds per mile slower. You're assuming that Touhey is some type of super human.

So if she is equivalent to Chez, she will run 16:23. What if she is better than him?

Daniel Winn of Oregon and NJ-NY Track Club went 15:52 to win the Coach's race for what its worth...

FYI, the Goddard Park (Ocean State) course is about 150m short, so it’s unlikely that she can run faster on a tougher, accurately-measured course.

We'll see. Chez was, and is, pretty good. If she can achieve and maintain the gaps you're talking about, she should able to run 9:15ish as a senior.

LittleRhody wrote:

FYI, the Goddard Park (Ocean State) course is about 150m short, so it’s unlikely that she can run faster on a tougher, accurately-measured course.

Yeah, and that indoor track where she ran her 15:37 is 10m short too, probably. Right?

LittleRhody wrote:

FYI, the Goddard Park (Ocean State) course is about 150m short, so it’s unlikely that she can run faster on a tougher, accurately-measured course.

Still a 176 Speed Rating: If she matches or exceeds that today she is well on her way.

Vyggyggyggy wrote:

[quote]Gyvgyggyygv wrote:

G race: 0 sub 16, 0 sub 16:30, 0 sub 16:40

F race: 0 sub 16, 1 sub 16:30, 2 sub 16:40

E race:0 sub 16, 5 sub 16:30, 7 sub 16:40.

D race: 0 sub 16, 3 sub 16:30, 3 sub 16:40

Mile Split NJ says she is running at 3:50pm

FVTfvtfttftfftt wrote:

Vyggyggyggy wrote:

[quote]Gyvgyggyygv wrote:

G race: 0 sub 16, 0 sub 16:30, 0 sub 16:40

F race: 0 sub 16, 1 sub 16:30, 2 sub 16:40

E race:0 sub 16, 5 sub 16:30, 7 sub 16:40.

D race: 0 sub 16, 3 sub 16:30, 3 sub 16:40

Sean Dolan, 4:08 miler won the D race in 16:14

Katy too he wrote:

So if she is equivalent to Chez, she will run 16:23. What if she is better than him?

She's way better than Chez.

Whoa, 3-4% grade for the first half mile is certainly no joke for an XC course.

Bgbygyggggygyg wrote:

[quote]FVTfvtfttftfftt wrote:

[quote]Vyggyggyggy wrote:

[quote]Gyvgyggyygv wrote:

G race: 0 sub 16, 0 sub 16:30, 0 sub 16:40

F race: 0 sub 16, 1 sub 16:30, 2 sub 16:40

E race:0 sub 16, 5 sub 16:30, 7 sub 16:40.

D race: 0 sub 16, 3 sub 16:30, 3 sub 16:40 (Sean Dolan, 4:08 miler won the D race in 16:14)

C race won in 16:00

B race won in 16:12

I think that Tuohy may have trouble breaking 16:45