Katelyn Tuohy is racing at Holmdel Park NJ tomorrow. If she breaks 16:00 it will be the greatest HS achievement ever.

You have ZERO credibility!!!!

I am torn. I never broke 16 but she ran equivalent times to high caliber guys this year. 164 guys have broken 16 so if she only runs 17 she is behind thousands of guys and the gender gap is larger than I realized. I predict 16:40 and about 25 guys beating her on the day.

Phantasy Star wrote:

Tough course. 16:45 is possible for Tuohy. 16:30 could be done by Claudia Lane.

I know you but what am I ?

Robby Andrews only ran a 15:57 here

Just saying

Here is another (informed I think) perspective. "So the course record here at Holmdel (17:28 by Megan Venables of Highland Reg. at the 2010 State Group 3 meet) is going to get crushed today. Tuohy is running in the A race at 3:50 pm.. How low will she go?? Well, Edward Cheserek ran 14:34 at Goddard Park after running the course record of 14:53 at Holmdel Park in 2011-a 19 second difference. So that means Tuohy should be well under 17. If I have to make a prediciton, I'll go with somehwere around 16:40. I know its hard to believe that someone can that fast at Holmdel, but Tuohy is one of those once in a gernaeration type runners. She is the Sydney McLaughlin of high school distance runners. "

https://nj.milesplit.com/articles/249094-live-updates-from-new-balance-shore-coaches-invitational

By coincidence, based on my limited, different research I had guessed 16:40 as well. I guess we will find out in ~8 hours

Nj boy run wrote:

I am torn. I never broke 16 but she ran equivalent times to high caliber guys this year. 164 guys have broken 16 so if she only runs 17 she is behind thousands of guys and the gender gap is larger than I realized. I predict 16:40 and about 25 guys beating her on the day.

She probably will run closer to 16:30 and less than a dozen guys will beat her (I doubt that 25 guys will go sub 16:40).

Claudia Lane could beat up Chuck Norris.

Jeremy Zagorski's coach Trialswatcher used to be a real expert on Holmdel, but I haven't heard from him for a while. I miss his passion for NJ XC and that of his old Dyestat sidekick 78Champ. Come back King!

At least back in mid 1980's when I ran Holmdel, guys who ran 17:00 typically ran about 9:40-9:45 in the 3200. You can extrapolate from that.

I think course runs a little faster due to familiarity and perhaps some improvements in maintenance.

That said, I’d expect 16:40s. I ran about that on not my best day (but still my PR) after several runs and thus some understanding of the course. She is super strong from what it seems but where she could settle after a quick opening mile in other races, too quick here could be her undoing. A 5:25 or so opener, and honestly even slower than that, would have her well situated for a performance in the 16:40s.

I was more of a track guy and was sub 9:30, sub 4:30. I think in the spring Tuohy might not be too far removed from that (probably mid 9:30s realistically), so see our XC times aligning as well.

There is great disparity between track and XC for the historical Holmdelers but someone with her track times who is also a good XC runner would extrapolate well to a 16:45 or so, especially if the course is dry and weather’s crisp.

The course has been running faster in recent years and I don’t know why. The same level of track kids run a bit faster at holmdel than they did 10 years ago.

How fast is it running today? The first 2 Varsity boy races are probably finished by now.

I don't think that the course is running "fast" today. The G race was won in 16:45 today (16:15 last year). The F race was won in 16:15 (16:17 last year)

E race won in 16:01 (won in 15:57 last year)

G race: 0 sub 16, 0 sub 16:30, 0 sub 16:40

F race: 0 sub 16, 1 sub 16:30, 2 sub 16:40

Course is running fine. F race just won in 16:15.

I'm just outside Philly, and we had some rain yesterday. Not sure if if rained in Holmdel yesterday or not. However, if she is running on a softer-than-typical Holmdel course, then anything around 17-flat will be remarkable. I raced the course in the mid-80s on a very sloppy, windy, wet day and it was definitely about 60-90 seconds slower for everyone, including the top studs.

Holmdel does very well with rain. Takes a lot to make it soft. It’s not soft today.

Gyvgyggyygv wrote:

G race: 0 sub 16, 0 sub 16:30, 0 sub 16:40

F race: 0 sub 16, 1 sub 16:30, 2 sub 16:40

E race:0 sub 16, 5 sub 16:30, 7 sub 16:40

This race was actually quite fast.