Katelyn Tuohy is racing at Holmdel Park NJ tomorrow. If she breaks 16:00 it will be the greatest HS achievement ever.

hey kitty girl wrote:

hart crane wrote:

Girls list:

http://nj.milesplit.com/meets/284328/results/559575/raw#.W7eiIcspCdM

Looking at this girls list, there were solid runners but none were national class.

However, I still think she will run around 16:40s/16:50s.

There are multiple Olympians on that list, plus girls who won national track championships. Most of them were running solo, so probably could have gone faster (e.g. Erin Donahue who was a 4:4x miler). But Tuohy will also be running solo, and in a meaningless race.

mount north field of dreams wrote:

The first mile at Holmdel, is on of "the toughest miles in HS XC" hello. Go to Massachusetts and run the first mile at Northfield Mountain and report back to us.

If you think that is tough, go to California and try the first 1000 meters of El Capitan and report back to us.

Ho Hum wrote:

hey kitty girl wrote:

Looking at this girls list, there were solid runners but none were national class.

However, I still think she will run around 16:40s/16:50s.

There are multiple Olympians on that list, plus girls who won national track championships. Most of them were running solo, so probably could have gone faster (e.g. Erin Donahue who was a 4:4x miler). But Tuohy will also be running solo, and in a meaningless race.

Stop this nonsense now.

Holmdel Park nj is one of the hardest XC courses in the country.

It features a big uphill first 800m in that zaps you immediately.

Then you have the bowl around mile 2ish, and trust me, it’s no joke.

Last mile is down hill with final 400 a perfect opportunity to make up time and negative split.

But there’s just no way she breaks 16, this was probably a New Yorker who has no idea how holmdel is run in jersey.

She can probably run 16:30 there with great competition against top d1 and national class women, but even then that’s insane to even suggest given the course and correlated times with that (usually 16:30 guys there are 9:20-9:30 on track)

I give her 16:40s, given she’s running alone, and hell, who knows, might not go 100%. Anything other than that I’d be completely shocked. You have to consider that the course record is 17:20s and many other women have run that course and are olympians world championship finalists and are a MINUTE slower than what we’re predicting. I wish her the best though!

dwightarm wrote:

West Coaster here (Mt. SAC, Woodward, etc.)

Isn't Holmdel a seasoned course with a lot of athletes having run it?

What have top girls run on this course? Any NXN or FL champs? If current record is 17:28, there's no way she runs in the 15s. Sub 17 would be a huge achievement.

I agree with the OP in the sense if it happens it's absurd.

When I first started at Cornell in2002, only a handful of boys had ever done. Now it's more common. I imigine a list of all-time sub-16s still exists as I know I saw it once. It looks like 11 boys did it a few years ago.

Holmdel was like the one course in the country where a kid could give me an xc time and i'd pay attention to it. Are kids just that much faster now or is the course somehow easier?

Regardless, 16:40s is RIDICULOUS, especially for a high school junior. I think people underestimate that a 16:40 is too slow for what Tuohy can run because she ran 16:06, but trust me, a 16:40 at holmdel is sub 16 at many courses

I know we aren't comparing apples to apples, but...

If I coached a sophomore boy who ran a 15:37 during indoors and that boy said "Hey, Coach, my goal for XC next year is to break 16 at Holmdel" I wouldn't laugh at him.

Anything below 17:00 would be INCREDIBLE. And OP is talking about a minute faster? That's like saying she can run sub 9:15 right now.

I was a 9:30s-9:40s high school 3200 guy, and ran 16:45 at holmdel at shore coaches (teammates that was similarly fast as me ran 16:20s there. We were just under 16 flat guys on faster courses. I would believe 16:30s for Tuohy, but 16 flat seems kind of outrageous. Cheserek was a 14 flat track 5k guy in HS (and 13;18 frosh year in college), and he just barely broke 15 there.

hart crane wrote:

I know we aren't comparing apples to apples, but...

If I coached a sophomore boy who ran a 15:37 during indoors and that boy said "Hey, Coach, my goal for XC next year is to break 16 at Holmdel" I wouldn't laugh at him.

Different scenario. The boy is most likely not well adapted to the sport and has alot more upside comparitvely speaking. Ontop of that, im not too sure I would be confident in that statement. I know plenty of kids who have run even sub 15 and I wouldnt bet that they could run sub 16 at holmdel (I would say 16:10s, but not sub 16(

And im talking about sub 15 on an indoor track, of course.

This. The first half mile is all uphill, which makes the first mile by far the slowest of the race. 5:05 would be absolutely suicidal. I think when Forys ran 15:16 to break Jason DiJoseph's long-standing record back in 2006 he went out in 5:10.

Also, I graduated in 2007 and I remember quite a few guys that year who ended up running 9:00-9:10 for 3200 failing to break 16:00 at Holmdel. Hell, I ran 4:20/9:24 that spring and I never even broke 17:00 there despite many, many attempts.

I know a lot of you don't "appreciate" the Meylan speed rating system, but I do, so I'm sharing this.

In a typical recent year, 16:00 at Holmdel was around a 186 SR.

That would be 10 points higher than her rating in Rhode Island, which was the fastest recorded XC 5k for an American high school girl, ever.

That is so unreasonably unrealistic of a jump for an athlete already at that level, it's silly that we're even talking about it.

There's no way she's going under 16:00 at Holmdel.

Not tomorrow, anyway.

Troix Gablienne wrote:

I know a lot of you don't "appreciate" the Meylan speed rating system, but I do, so I'm sharing this.

In a typical recent year, 16:00 at Holmdel was around a 186 SR.

That would be 10 points higher than her rating in Rhode Island, which was the fastest recorded XC 5k for an American high school girl, ever.

That is so unreasonably unrealistic of a jump for an athlete already at that level, it's silly that we're even talking about it.

There's no way she's going under 16:00 at Holmdel.

Not tomorrow, anyway.

Bump.

I say 16:20 at worst just for kicks. She’s a 15:3x Runner solo indoors as a sophomore. Definitely could run 15 low for 5K indoor.

Janet Smith J.P. Stevens Kinney National Champ

Like others have said, no way she's going sub 16 here. She's great, but she is not running 15 something tomorrow. I guess between 16:35-16:49. Depends on how she feels and how beat up the course is. Anything under 17 at Holmdel for a girl is amazing as is. She is good for the time I predicted. Best of luck to her and I hope she succeeds my expectations.

If you are using her 16:06 at Ocean State as your base please realize this....Ocean State is a VERY fast course likely because it is short....not a chance she can break 16:00 ..not even close.

Unpopular opinion:

She will NOT break 17. Will run 17:08-17:12.

A former national champ has the record at 17:28 with a few future Olympians behind her. Can’t see Tuohy knocking a minute off this one.

Agreed. 0% chance. Why even bring this up? If she "only" runs 16:45, people will be disappointed (for no reason).

Here are PRs of some well known boys:

Mickey Brannigan 15:45

Steve Slattery 15:48

John Carlotti 15:53

Rob Napolitano 15:57

Robby Andrews 15:57