Katelyn Tuohy is racing at Holmdel Park NJ tomorrow. If she breaks 16:00 it will be the greatest HS achievement ever.

16:30 or slower. Holmdel is no joke.

West Coaster here (Mt. SAC, Woodward, etc.)

Isn't Holmdel a seasoned course with a lot of athletes having run it?

What have top girls run on this course? Any NXN or FL champs? If current record is 17:28, there's no way she runs in the 15s. Sub 17 would be a huge achievement.

I do not "know" the course but one can see the elevation profile here https://www.mapmyrun.com/routes/fullscreen/178501220/ First mile looks almost all uphill including a good rise early in the race. Do not return to starting level until last 1/2 mile. My initial guess was 16:40 ish Looked some into comparable times for girls here and at FL - the few times I saw seemed to be in the same rough time as Balboa Park. So I think low 16s (or faster) is out of the question especially as noted on first run of this course.

If she runs sub 16 at Holmdel, she runs sub 9:30 for 3200m.

dwightarm wrote:

West Coaster here (Mt. SAC, Woodward, etc.)

Isn't Holmdel a seasoned course with a lot of athletes having run it?

What have top girls run on this course? Any NXN or FL champs? If current record is 17:28, there's no way she runs in the 15s. Sub 17 would be a huge achievement.

Up until very recently, Holmdel was essentially a NJ-only course. While NJ has had some great runners, none of them have been at this level.

Anything below 17:00 would be HUGE

I'm going to guess 16:40s. It's a tough course.

She already showed that kind of fitness at Ocean Park (16:06). Holmdel would be loads harder, even for 16:06.

sub 16 is tough on that course- i had a bunch of (d1 midmajor) teammates who ran between 16:05-16:15 and I believe all were between 9:10-9:20 and/or 4:15-4:20 the following track season

I had a similar thought run through my head a few weeks back, when she had that amazing performance, and I saw some guy speculate, "Is it possible Tuohy could break 17 at Holmdel" (or something to that effect).

My first thought was "17?? She might get closer to 16."

The idea of a girl breaking 16 seems flat-out ridiculous. 16 is a *great* performance for a guy. In the average year, there might be a handful of guys who break 16 there in this race, of the couple *thousand* who run. Last year, I think there were *two.*

Yet her best performances are so spectacular, it's not entirely ridiculous to at least ponder it.

16 is probably a bridge too far, but if she feels good and pushes herself tomorrow, she should *destroy* 17.

Sub-16:30 wouldn't shock me. It should be fascinating to see how she stacks up against the merged boys results.

She may end up with a time that would qualify her for the NJ SMOC (boys)--which would be pretty mind-boggling all by itself.

Girls list:

http://nj.milesplit.com/meets/284328/results/559575/raw#.W7eiIcspCdM

Boy's list:

http://nj.milesplit.com/meets/284328/results/559543/raw#.W7eir8spCdM

I am just going off of memory, but I can think of a handful of 9:30 type guys who got near 16:00. Some of those guys were taking their third shot of the year at the course though.

Thanks. Great stuff.

As I think more about it, I think 16:30 is probably in the right area.

If she went much under that, it would be absolutely jaw-dropping.

Looking at that girl's list, and all the great names on it, and thinking that this gal might beat the entire all-time list by a full minute or so, is already jaw-dropping enough.

hart crane wrote:

Girls list:

http://nj.milesplit.com/meets/284328/results/559575/raw#.W7eiIcspCdM

Looking at this girls list, there were solid runners but none were national class.

However, I still think she will run around 16:40s/16:50s.

hey kitty girl wrote:

hart crane wrote:

Girls list:

http://nj.milesplit.com/meets/284328/results/559575/raw#.W7eiIcspCdM

Looking at this girls list, there were solid runners but none were national class.

However, I still think she will run around 16:40s/16:50s.

*Lots* of them were national class. Ashley Higginson, just to pick one, was a national freaking XC *champ,* and went on to make the World's team at steeple.

As good as Tuohy is, no she will not run under 16. People who think she has a shot are completely unfamiliar with the course. Whoever said "If she can get through the first mile comfortably in 5:05-5:10, I think she could have a shot at low 16:00 or under. Emphasis on comfortably" is a perfect example. When guys run 15:20s, they go through the mile in 5:10. Cheserek went through the mile in 5:00 when he ran 14:53. The first mile at Holmdel is one of the hardest miles in high school xc.

I predict she runs 16:30. 16:30 is an incredible time (I'm predicting her to break the course record by a minute), but 16:00 is just out of reach. Boys run Holmdel all the time and we know what kind of athlete it takes to break 16. Here's the athletes who broke 16 last year at MOCs and their track prs.

Devin Hart 15:35 - 8:51

Chris Romero 15:44 - 9:04

Fahd Nasser 15:50 - 9:16

Will Hare 15:55 - 9:07

Jack Jennings 15:57 - 9:16

Teddy Meredith 15:57 - 4:14

Brian Hill 15:58 - 9:13

It takes about a 9:15 3200 pr to break 16. Tuohy isn't that type of athlete yet.

The first mile at Holmdel, is on of "the toughest miles in HS XC" hello. Go to Massachusetts and run the first mile at Northfield Mountain and report back to us.

If she breaks 16 it will be the greatest performance in American Women’s distance running period!! You heard it first from the hounddog. ?

mount north field of dreams wrote:

The first mile at Holmdel, is on of "the toughest miles in HS XC" hello. Go to Massachusetts and run the first mile at Northfield Mountain and report back to us.

You feel better about yourself now?

Please stop this.

There is no way imaginable that Katelyn Tuohy is going to break 16:00 at Holmdel tomorrow.

That's absolutely ridiculous.

If conditions are good, and she's in top form, she'll go in the 16:32-16:35 range, with a shot at breaking 16:30 with a superior effort. That's a minute better than the course record, and an absolutely mind-boggling result. The next "minute gap" on the all-time list would cover #2 through #56.

There's ZERO chance that she is breaking 16:00.