G-MAC XC

Caniford and Kernell both beat McCartney .

Cedarville had Sullivan and Classen ahead of all of them.

Having been at the race this past week, I think it's safe to say the course was short. I watched Sullivan run mid 25's a few weeks back and Saturday he dropped over a minute at the All Ohio. I was speaking to a d3 coach who estimated the course running 40 seconds fast.

Back to the subject.

Malone might sneak out a win come conference. Walsh looks to be missing a key guy or two. Hadely and Knapes. Cedarville is going to have to put 4 in front of Malone's 3 to have any chance to win. If Hadley does run at conference it should be an easy win for Walsh.

This year is going to be a very close race.

-JT

In fairness to Sullivan, Humes ran at Louisville and also dropped a minute plus from his time earlier this season, and I don't hear anyone saying that course must be short. We're talking about meets at the beginning and end of September here. It's not unheard of for guys to drop a bunch of time over that time period.

Firstly, Louisville is eight kilometers, plain and simple, its not an inch short. Its one of the most reputable courses in the nation. Humes time is very accurate IMO. Humes dropped a minute off his time at Louisville bc his first meet was at MSU Spartan Invite where everyone runs like ASS. You Ohio kids wouldn't know about this, but back when I ran D1 collegiately... Spartan was notorious for hot weather, little shade, soggy golf course ground, and got out really slooooow. Of course he would drop one minute at Louisville.

As for Sullivan, the All-Ohio course was a whole minute short. EVERY SINGLE runner PR'd by a minute at least. There were 31 min dudes running 26 low. How is it possible to guess GMAC championship performances off those times?

Walsh, Malone, Hillsdale, Cedarville, maybe OVU. Hillsdale, Cedarville just have no depth. Im interested to see how Walsh does coming up at Lewis. Hadley dropped out of the last race. It could be close come Nov. Those will be the finishing places. But regardless, no one will touch Humes individually.

OVU?? Who do they even have besides their two kenyans?

It is possible to guess the GMAC performances because the three best teams all raced each other. Granted Hadley DNF'd and I don't think all of Cedarville's top guys ran, but regardless of the course they still competed against each other. This is cross country- times don't matter as much as who you beat. How the teams compete against each other is what will matter at conference more than who ran 24:30 vs 24:40

I'm not disputing any of that. I'm saying who's to say Cedarville's course doesn't run a bit slow on an early september afternoon as well? From everything I've seen it seems more than likely it would. Look at regional times from USI 2 years ago and Cedarville last year? Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out maybe Cedarville isn't a crazy fast course either.

So I ran a quick analysis, and the average PR for the top 10 at All-Ohio was 42 seconds. At Louisville the average PR was 54 seconds. I don't think All-Ohio was as clearly short as you want to make it out to be. Sometimes it's just the perfect combination of fast course and good weather.

midwestrunner69 wrote:

It is possible to guess the GMAC performances because the three best teams all raced each other. Granted Hadley DNF'd and I don't think all of Cedarville's top guys ran, but regardless of the course they still competed against each other. This is cross country- times don't matter as much as who you beat. How the teams compete against each other is what will matter at conference more than who ran 24:30 vs 24:40

It is stupid to compare the times run at All-Ohio's to the times run anywhere else... That's all I'm saying. Sure, I give Cedarville the credit they're due. They have 2 fast kids. But you cannot count out guys like Humes who raced a much slower course and ran FASTER still... Some of the kids couldn't even run those All-Ohio times on the track..

Again, All-Ohio's WILL NOT MATTER at conference. They are racing 8k at conference, not 7.5k!!! What matters for GMAC conferences is the training that they do from NOW until THEN. Walsh, Malone, and Cedarville could be doing all high intensity track workouts for all we know, and crash and burn by the time GMACs roll around. In that case, anyone could pull off the win... yes, even OVU. All-Ohio's are not a predictor for how the conference will end up. Lets talk about training!

GMAC>GLIAC wrote:

So I ran a quick analysis, and the average PR for the top 10 at All-Ohio was 42 seconds. At Louisville the average PR was 54 seconds. I don't think All-Ohio was as clearly short as you want to make it out to be. Sometimes it's just the perfect combination of fast course and good weather.

You pulled that out of your ASS. Give me the stats for Louisville's top 10.

In addition, I personally wheeled the both the All-Ohio course and the Louisville course. One was 8 Kilometers the other one was 4.81 miles. Guess which one was which

midwestrunner69 wrote:

GMAC>GLIAC wrote:

So I ran a quick analysis, and the average PR for the top 10 at All-Ohio was 42 seconds. At Louisville the average PR was 54 seconds. I don't think All-Ohio was as clearly short as you want to make it out to be. Sometimes it's just the perfect combination of fast course and good weather.

You pulled that out of your ASS. Give me the stats for Louisville's top 10.

In addition, I personally wheeled the both the All-Ohio course and the Louisville course. One was 8 Kilometers the other one was 4.81 miles. Guess which one was which

I ran in the open race last weekend for All-Ohio. Watch came out to 4.87. Would make sense that times were around 40 seconds fast.

midwestrunner69 wrote:

GMAC>GLIAC wrote:

So I ran a quick analysis, and the average PR for the top 10 at All-Ohio was 42 seconds. At Louisville the average PR was 54 seconds. I don't think All-Ohio was as clearly short as you want to make it out to be. Sometimes it's just the perfect combination of fast course and good weather.

You pulled that out of your ASS. Give me the stats for Louisville's top 10.

Joseph Humes: 24:17, Previous PR 25:07. Delta = 50 seconds

Dominic Patacsil: 24:20, Previous PR 24:34. Delta = 14 seconds

Jesse Saxton: 24:45, Previous PR 25:51. Delta = 66 seconds

Chris Maxon: 24:47, Previous PR 25:37. Delta = 50 seconds

Terry Fenske: 24:51, Previous PR 25:27. Delta = 36 seconds

Lucas Huelvan: 24:53, Previous PR 26:20. Delta = 87 seconds

Vincent Kibunja: 24:54, Previous PR 26:13. Delta = 79 seconds

Jordan Pritchard: 25:10, Previous PR 25:31. Delta = 21 seconds

Dan Nehnevaj: 25:11, Previous PR 26:54. Delta = 103 seconds

Brian Moore: 25:15, Previous PR 25:50. Delta = 35 seconds.

You do the math. That's 541 seconds over 10 people which gives you an average of 54 seconds per runner...

I will stand by my statement and say All-ohio was short. Louisville is also a fast one and many have argued over the years of it being short.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter. I was at the All-Ohio race so I was speaking from my observations and the comments I heard from some D3 coaches.

Walsh is heading to the Conference Crossover, Cedarville isn't racing and Malone is going down to the Disney Invite.

Looks like the pre-national meet on the 20th is going to be key.

-JT

GreenKetchup wrote:

I will stand by my statement and say All-ohio was short. Louisville is also a fast one and many have argued over the years of it being short.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter. I was at the All-Ohio race so I was speaking from my observations and the comments I heard from some D3 coaches.

Walsh is heading to the Conference Crossover, Cedarville isn't racing and Malone is going down to the Disney Invite.

Looks like the pre-national meet on the 20th is going to be key.

-JT

Short course or full course I completely agree with what you've said so far from a team standpoint. All-Ohio showed it's going to be a dogfight between Walsh, Malone, and Cedarville assuming no roster changes between now and the conference meet. Unless we see Hadley return I think it's a flip of the coin between Walsh and Malone with Cedarville pretty well established in 3rd. Nobody else in the conference has depth beyond their top 2

Pre-Nationals will give us another chance to see these 3 compete against each other, but without Hillsdale I don't think it will really tell us definitively if there is anyone else with a chance at challenging these 3.

Cedarville was missing one of their top guys from the first two meets as well as one of their better juniors. If they perform as they have in the past then it'll be a much closer team battle even with Hadley. Pre-nats will be fun to watch.

Not sure who you're thinking of but Testas has been racing. Hasn't been in a varsity race yet though. Obviously I don't know if he's been instructed to tempo these races, but if their indicative of what kind of shape he's in I'm not sure he'll really make a big difference in the team scores this season.

Looks like some GMAC teams raced today.

Hillsdale hosted an invite, Walsh raced at Lewis, Malone at the Disney Classic

Any results yet?

A few things :

Walsh competed against some good teams and got some quality wins.

When we look at the regional meet moving forward I think you can say this past weekend was huge in deciding at large bids. I do not think they will give the Midwest 3 at large bids. 2 is a maybe. 1 for sure.

I looked at the Disney results and Malone didn't run bad but they didn't impress either. It does raise the question-Why did they go to that meet? They are going to need an at large bid come November.

-JT

Malone goes down to the Disney Classic to run fast and have a good time. In recent years, Malone has recruited some quality student athletes and they have not been able to put together a solid roster. The data of recent years shows that Malone coaching staff does a mediocre job at developing talent. When you look at Walsh University and the job the coach has down in developing talent, you have to take your hat off to him.

I will be interested in watching how the rest of the season goes, however, Malone is going to need some help from other teams to get in. Whether that is the injury plague or some bad races by Walsh or Cedarville. Some of their “Varsity” runners did spend the summer out at Mammoth Lakes. Hopefully, they did not over train.

Respectfully,

Hillsdale's meet was basically a dual and the Disney classic was nothing special. Walsh took a very respectable 7th against a lot of good teams from out west. Pre-nationals will be the next big test; Cedarville will be there too.

I disagree.

They actually have had some solid development over the last few years.

Ryan Roush developed into a solid runner and there are a few others who have ran pretty fast.

I could argue Walsh doesn't do that much better of a job.

-JT

It frustrates me to no end when people act like it is still 2009 and Malone is winning the NAIA national championship. Since leaving the NAIA, Malone has consistently been given a pass for their performance. Here is the list they provide for “Improvement”. Considering how many athletes they brought in from 13-18…not impressed considering it should be hard to drop 30 seconds from running an the XC course to running on a track.

Tony Migliozzi ‘12 15:47 14:32 1:15

Matt McConnell’13 17:43 15:21 2:22

Drew Trusty ‘15 15:15 14:34 0:41

Ryan Roush 16’ 15:30 14:42 0:48

Nick Fresenko 14’ 15:43 14:30 1:13

Mitch Williams 13’ 16:14 14:59 1:15

Gage Black 15’ 17:20 14:32 2:48

Keith Burns 09’ 16:48 15:48 1:00

Christopher Sinick 10’ 16:13 15:15 0:58

Paul Robinson 10’ 16:13 14:33 1:40

Nik Schweikert 09’ 15:35 14:06 1:29

Aaron Melhorn 11 15:18 14:24 0:54

Ryan Kienzle 08’ 15:38 14:12 1:26

Bryan Eckenfels 11’ 18:10 16:10 2:00

Evan Gaynor 10’ 15:54 14:27 1:27

James Zeuch 11’ 15:55 14:27 1:28

Kyle Randolph 11’ 16:59 15:45 1:14

Nick Meeson 13’ 15:40 14:57 0:43

Nate Boyer 18’ 16:01 15:02 0:59

Brett Cortelletti 16:02 15:30 0:32

Andrew Currier 22:32 16:52 5:40

Lorne Strausbaugh 18’ 16:39 15:39 1:10

By the way, if you ran a 4:13 mile in high school, you should be capable of running under 25 minutes.