over/under 2:36:55?
Paula Radcliffe's retirement stroll through London:
over/under 2:36:55?
Paula Radcliffe's retirement stroll through London:
2:32:41 mark my words
DNF.
She already knows that she won't make the Olympic team.
She wants cash. This is why she is lying.
She hired a professional videographer to make Youtube videos. How many pros do this. She skanked her way onto a high profile team, lying about the fact that Jerry coached her in college. Jerry coached the men's team.
She wants cash and is putting in a grand effort to market herself.
Oh Please wrote:
800 dude wrote:
Anything under 2:30 would be solid, and my prediction is she goes slightly under if she runs even.
Under 2:27 would erase any doubt about whether she's a threat to make the team.
2:25 or under and she's a favorite to make the team.
I second the above. Exactly what I wanted to say.
This is also identical to what I was going to write.
800 dude wrote:
Gwen let her legs do the talking before her mouth. She ran 53-low on a very hard 10-mile course, beating Hall and finishing a few ticks behind Aliphine. That automatically puts her on a short list of contenders to make the US team. And keep in mind she did that while she was still a triathlete. Making the team isn't an audacious goal; anything less would be a disappointment for someone with her PROVEN ability.
As for saying her goal is gold and not just to make the team, I actually don't think that's a meaningful distinction. When you consider how good the American women are at the moment, the limited number of Kenyans and Ethiopians that get to compete at the Olympics, and the crapshoot effects of hot weather championship racing, then it makes sense to think that any American who makes the team should have at least an outside shot at winning.
So what this comes down to is not her goal (which is perfectly rational), but her decision to announce it publicly. I frankly think that the criticism here mostly comes down to sexism. Male athletes are adored because of their audacious trash talk, but when a female athlete simply announces her goals, people say she needs to learn her place.
Go away soy boy.
Anybody know her current marathon PR?
NotPCever wrote:
800 dude wrote:
Gwen let her legs do the talking before her mouth. She ran 53-low on a very hard 10-mile course, beating Hall and finishing a few ticks behind Aliphine. That automatically puts her on a short list of contenders to make the US team. And keep in mind she did that while she was still a triathlete. Making the team isn't an audacious goal; anything less would be a disappointment for someone with her PROVEN ability.
As for saying her goal is gold and not just to make the team, I actually don't think that's a meaningful distinction. When you consider how good the American women are at the moment, the limited number of Kenyans and Ethiopians that get to compete at the Olympics, and the crapshoot effects of hot weather championship racing, then it makes sense to think that any American who makes the team should have at least an outside shot at winning.
So what this comes down to is not her goal (which is perfectly rational), but her decision to announce it publicly. I frankly think that the criticism here mostly comes down to sexism. Male athletes are adored because of their audacious trash talk, but when a female athlete simply announces her goals, people say she needs to learn her place.
Go away soy boy.
That "insult" reveals your sub-par intelligence.
Special wrote:
OLD SMTC SOB wrote:
Her background is not irrelevant. Does one have to train for the running portion of the Triathlon? The answer is yes. Does the swimming and cycling also contribute to her overall cardiovascular fitness? The answer is yes. Was she previously a good runner in college? The answer is yes. And she didn't quit, she was recruited into the Triathlon, because she was also a swimmer. She found the nitch she was suited for at the time, and became a gold medalist. No small achievement. As far as her lofty goals.....well shes entitled. She has already shown ability to reach the pinnacle of her previous sport. Track and Field is replete with people who have defied and beat the odds. The question is whether she will have enough time to maximize her potential in the marathon, which typically takes many years of very specific training. We'll see. Should be fun to watch.
I would say her background as an Olympic Champion in Triathlon is somewhat irrelevant. Not as irrelevant as if she was an Olympic champion boxer or gymnast for example, but somewhat irrelevant all the same. Yes, Triathlon involves running but essentially it's a sport for those who are a jack of three trades but a master of none. So, as Olympic Triathlon champion, I think she isn't entitled to be disrespectful to career-long runners and say she can beat them all with a couple of years full-time running training. If she makes the team (a big 'if') she'll meet several athletes in Tokyo who are masters of their trade.
I disagree, but thats OK. I guess thats kinda like saying that Ashton Eaton is a jack of three trades but master of none. My suspicion is that if he decided to become a master of one, he could. I also think Gwen can, but training time may not on on her side. Time will tell. Also, her stated goal is the gold medal, which is perfectly reasonable for a gold medalist. Should she have instead said that she would hope to be in the top 10 in the trials, top three perhaps? To just place? People tend to rise to the level of expectation. having a lofty goal is one method to achieve that.
You don't know anything about her if you think she is doing this as a cash grab - it's a huge pay cut. She was raking it in on ITU tour. If she kept at that or went to IronMan racing she would have be set for life plus she's a CPA so she has a real career to fall back on. She's said it in every article and interview. She's not motivated by money. In the outside magazine article linked below she was already making a quarter of a million a year in prize money not counting sponsorship. "But Jorgensen’s switch to running wasn’t without concrete consequences. In the three years up to and including Rio, Jorgensen averaged about $220,000 a year just in prize money, not counting a sponsorship with powerhouse sports brand Red Bull."https://www.outsideonline.com/2346696/gwen-jorgensen-chicago-marathon
Lying to make $$$ wrote:
DNF.
She already knows that she won't make the Olympic team.
She wants cash. This is why she is lying.
She hired a professional videographer to make Youtube videos. How many pros do this. She skanked her way onto a high profile team, lying about the fact that Jerry coached her in college. Jerry coached the men's team.
She wants cash and is putting in a grand effort to market herself.
Lying to make $$$ wrote:
DNF.
She already knows that she won't make the Olympic team.
She wants cash. This is why she is lying.
She hired a professional videographer to make Youtube videos. How many pros do this. She skanked her way onto a high profile team, lying about the fact that Jerry coached her in college. Jerry coached the men's team.
She wants cash and is putting in a grand effort to market herself.
This x 1000000000.
This is woman is simply not an elite runner. Never has been, never will be.
Her "transition" from country club triathlons to real sport has not gone well. Nor was it ever truly intended to. She's a marketer. A "viral" star. The point of all this marathon nonsense was to rake in the dough by tweeting, blogging, Youtubing, sowing drama, etc. Her days are numbered though, and she'll get blown out in this elite field.
The end is near. Do not give this woman any more attention. Let her seethe on Instagram, perpetually pressing F5, praying for one more comment from the numales.
Breaking 2:30 would be a terrific fun for her. A 10+ minute PR, and good progress. She has a long way to go in her thinking about Tokyo 2020 and this would make her at least a legit contender. This race is a big coming out party for her. I don't think she's as good as Sara Hall yet.
I'll guess she runs 2:28:5x.
I was a runner in college and my PRs were much faster than Jorgensen. Now I am a triathlete, with times pretty similar to Jorgenson. I've also run marathons off mostly triathlon training and am usually around 2:33-2:36 range (faster than her, but NYC is admittedly hilly). If I told my friends that I was suddenly going to run 2:18-2:20 (the ability level it will take to win a gold medal), or even 2:22-2:25 (which is what its going to take to even make US Olympic team), they would laugh in my face.
I think she's seriously underestimating the effect all of that swimming and cycling has on your general fitness. With the exception of a longer long run, the difference in running workouts between triathlon training and marathon training (lots of threshold and cruise intervals) are pretty minimal. She basically just replacing swimming and cycling workouts with easy runs.
If she runs anything under 2:30 she should be happy, 2:28 would be phenomenal.
Tri harder wrote:
If I told my friends that I was suddenly going to run 2:18-2:20...
Well that doesn't describe Gwen so I don't see how it is relevant.
reed wrote:
To rephrase the original question:
What will it take to quiet the letsrun haters?
Total nuclear holocaust might do. Maybe not, though.
2:28:34 is the best result I would expect.
She will go out too fast and bonk. 2.35 at best.
259 wrote:
She will go out too fast and bonk. 2.35 at best.
But she will still "trust the process." Ride this useless quote until the 2020 Olympic Trials Gwen.
Another giver of +1 wrote:
Beyond expectations: 2:22 and top 5
Acceptable: 2:27
Back to the drawing board: 2:32
Agreed
I would make it more specific:
2:21.41 (fastest American in 2018) beyond expectations
2:26.19 (second fastest American in 2018) very acceptable
2:32.27 (third fastest American in 2018) back to drawing board
The weather forecast has been updated; the main feature is that the winds will be about 17mph with gusts to 25 with likely some rain (so much or the idiot that was indicating that it would be too hot to run well). While those wind speeds are at the measuring point 10m up in open terrain, I think that it will put a damper on times. The lead group might go out at 2:18++ rather than something faster. Anyone running alone in to that wind is going to be toast. This will not be Boston, but that will give you a feel about the effects on the runners. I would be shocked if Rupp/Mo run anything close to the 2:04 people have been talking about if the forecast holds.