VIPAM wrote:
Eventually with time it will be possible; however, my real question do you think its possible for a lady to run sun 29 minute track 10000m within the next 10-12 years? If so who do you feel is capable, if no current athlete....what shorter/longer pbs must such a runner need?
Yes I think it is both possible but at the same time unlikely. I think both Ayana and potentially Hassan have the physiology to do it. The issue is the paucity of track 10k meets with Stella international fields. Previously Ayana has not gone from the gun in attempt to break the record. Her Rio record came from two unique factors combining. Alice Aprot powering through the first 5k in 14.46 then Ayanas front running style taking over the second 5k in 14.30.
In London the race was slow and tactical from the start and Ayana took the lead at 4K and blew through the next 1k in 2.49, she hit halfway in 15.51 and ran the final 5k in 14.24.
You can see that although Ayanas second half was more impressive in London, her overall time was 59 seconds slower. I very much doubt anyone will try to stretch Ayana in the first half again as ultimately they will suffer more than she will in the the final half.
I think Ayana is capable of doing it - but she will not get the requisite “help” from a fast early pacer again, she will have to run solo from the gun - something she has never done before.
And then we need to factor in Hassan- she is a big threat - if she can hang onto Ayanas coat tails for much of the second half we all know she will have superior finishing speed. The hard part is hanging on. Best attempt we have seen is Vivian Cheruiyot who made a noble attempt, but ultimately fell well back with five laps to go.
History tells us that once Ayana gets ahead the race is over - keeping her reeled in between laps 10-20 is the key, but oh so difficult to do.
I think the next record to fall may be the women’s half marathon, either Hassan or Ayana have the ability to bust that down. If Hassan keeps developing at the same surprising manner she will be a real threat.