Marathon. Is 2:45 suicidal for me?

Jimmy21 wrote:

Im in the middle of training for CIM. I noticed they have a 2:45 pace group. I can pretty much guarantee that i can go under 2:50. 2:47-2:48 seems like a reasonable goal. 2:45 seems like a bit of stretch.

Great question and definitely possible to answer with all the detailed information you gave about your fitness.

yea bro, we need to know about your training for CIM and other PRs

Let me consult the magic 8 ball...

"It is decidedly so."

Go for it!

I had the same thought for indy monumental, there will prob be a pack trying to run the women's qualifying time of 2:45. I figure i'd prefer to just run 6:25s and pick off the stragglers from that group in the last 10k instead of risk it.

Should be plenty of folks to run with at that pace.

5k 17:04

10k 36:19 on a very hilly course

HM 1:21:20

Marathon 2:51:45

I feel like i am in much better shape now. If i were to run a half, i would be trying for close to 1:18. I feel like id be close to that right now, and certainly be there by December 2nd. Im trying to be really consistent this cycle following a Jack Daniel's 2q plan with a peak of 65mpw. Im right in the middle right now and im pretty fatigued and last night i did a workout with the repeats on the track

6easy

2 miles @ 12:08

2:52 rest

2 mile @ 12:00a

3 minutes rest

2000m @ 7:30

Emergency bathroom break. 5 minutes?

2 miles @ 12:00

2 miles easy

It felt pretty easy until the last mile of the repeats, it started to get pretty tough

Get in touch with Cenato Ranova or COach J$ and they'll probably make you a WR contender.

That workout seems amazing, looking good probably you can now solo run a 2:18 marathon and go to OLY trials

Jimmy21 wrote:

5k 17:04

10k 36:19 on a very hilly course

HM 1:21:20

Marathon 2:51:45

I feel like i am in much better shape now. If i were to run a half, i would be trying for close to 1:18. I feel like id be close to that right now, and certainly be there by December 2nd. Im trying to be really consistent this cycle following a Jack Daniel's 2q plan with a peak of 65mpw. Im right in the middle right now and im pretty fatigued and last night i did a workout with the repeats on the track

6easy

2 miles @ 12:08

2:52 rest

2 mile @ 12:00a

3 minutes rest

2000m @ 7:30

Emergency bathroom break. 5 minutes?

2 miles @ 12:00

2 miles easy

It felt pretty easy until the last mile of the repeats, it started to get pretty tough

That's 1:18 pace with breaks. I doubt you are in that sort of shape. You should be keeping the 2:45 group in sight but trailing them and trying to reel in stragglers.

Maybe 2:48 wrote:

That's 1:18 pace with breaks. I doubt you are in that sort of shape. You should be keeping the 2:45 group in sight but trailing them and trying to reel in stragglers.

Yes, thats how i landed on the pace. I was aiming for hm pace. It seemed like too much work to do at true tempo pace, especially after 6 and being fatigued from the previous weeks. My training in the winter/spring was pretty bad and i lost some fitness. Ive been being pretty consistent lately and i feel like im starting to run much better, even being broken down from training. Hence why i think id fall short of 1:18 now but feel id be ready in a few months

Jimmy21 wrote:

2:47-2:48 seems like a reasonable goal. 2:45 seems like a bit of stretch.

Run your race, stay inside yourself.

It's better to start a little conservatively and pickup the pace lately if you feel good than redlining for 26 miles.

That kind of gamble can work for shorter distances but in the marathon a disaster bonk can happen easily.

As someone running the 2Q plan peaking at 70, I can say yes, it's suicidal. Your times do not indicate a sub 2:45 in neither your races nor your training. Maybe if you were running 90 MPW I could say 2:45 is possible, but your shorter times will not convert on 65.

Go for sub 2:50 and just be happy if you hit it, that alone will be a challenge.

Interesting, I am also trying to hit 2:45 (not at CIM) in November

We have a pretty close 5k PR (16:56) but I've run a quicker half (1:18:00). I also did 4x3200 a few days ago in 11:55s w/ 3min rest (few sec slower/rep than when i did it before the half). and have been running decent volume (75+ MPW last 8 weeks)

Do a half marathon a month out or so, if its around 1:18 go for 2:45, if its 1:19-1:20 go for 2:48 or so and try to negative split if you can. You have some time before the race to gain fitness, I'd say it's do-able

- RunnerSam

2Q Enthusiast wrote:

As someone running the 2Q plan peaking at 70, I can say yes, it's suicidal. Your times do not indicate a sub 2:45 in neither your races nor your training. Maybe if you were running 90 MPW I could say 2:45 is possible, but your shorter times will not convert on 65.

Go for sub 2:50 and just be happy if you hit it, that alone will be a challenge.

I dont disagree with you, but i also think part of what is missing here is that ive only been running for 2 years. All those prs are from my first year of running, except the marathon was after 18 months. Its not like ive been running for 15 years and hoping for a huge pr out of nowhere. Im hoping i can find a flat half a month out, to see. But i havent found one, yet

Risky wrote:

Jimmy21 wrote:

2:47-2:48 seems like a reasonable goal. 2:45 seems like a bit of stretch.

Run your race, stay inside yourself.

It's better to start a little conservatively and pickup the pace lately if you feel good than redlining for 26 miles.

That kind of gamble can work for shorter distances but in the marathon a disaster bonk can happen easily.

+1. Lots of time to settle in on if the 2:48 or 2:45 is the reasonable goal, but don't change your goal to run with a pacer. You'll be better off running your own race. (A lot of pacers also go out a touch quick so that they can guarantee they hit the time they promise...this would be doubly bad if you aren't in 2:45 shape.)

Honestly your times look about right for 2:46-2:48. I ran 2:44 at CIM last year and stuck with the 2:45 group through halfway before cutting a little on the second half. The 2:45 group is really there for OTQ-seeking women. So make sure if you do run with them help with some of the pacing and don't get in anyone's way. I found the group really really enjoyable to be in. People were chatting, encouraging one another, sharing bottles, etc.

You have to make a call on your fitness. I think I was in better shape but just wanted to string together a good marathon. It was very beneficial to sit in the pack for a while. The pacer hit every single mile in 6:15 on the nose. I was impressed. You just gotta make a judgment call on where you're at. I say sub-1:20 for the half will give you a shot, 1:18-19 is better. If you're more of an endurance runner, maybe give it a go if training goes well and you have a good weather day.

I’d go out at 2:48 pace then re assess at the half. You def have a 2:48 in you and I’ve seen people go a few min faster than projected on that course.

2Q Enthusiast wrote:

As someone running the 2Q plan peaking at 70, I can say yes, it's suicidal. Your times do not indicate a sub 2:45 in neither your races nor your training. Maybe if you were running 90 MPW I could say 2:45 is possible, but your shorter times will not convert on 65.

Go for sub 2:50 and just be happy if you hit it, that alone will be a challenge.

+1 - 90 sounds a tad steep, but I agree with the thrust of the advice above.

Your workout sounds really good, but I also think 65 mpw is light on miles to convert your low 17. I say you play it conservative by pacing for the 2:50, maybe surprise yourself with a strong finish in 2:49/2:48 high, then bump to the mid/high 70s for mileage next time around with a much better chance for success at the 2:45.

It is possible, but your weekly mileage is likely to low.

I ran a 1:19 half 12 days out from my 2:44 marathon, but that was off an average of 80-85mpw, with a month block of 100mpw.

But with the right group, pacing, fueling and weather you should be close.

Go for it and have no regrets.

Jimmy21 wrote:

Im in the middle of training for CIM. I noticed they have a 2:45 pace group. I can pretty much guarantee that i can go under 2:50. 2:47-2:48 seems like a reasonable goal. 2:45 seems like a bit of stretch.

I ran 2:45.00 last year and here are some workouts that I did:

-10M tempo @ MP-20 sec (5:55-6:00)

-3 x 3 miles @ MP w/ 4 min jog rec. (6:15-6:20) on a hilly loop

-5 x 20+ mile runs (24 longest @ 6:57 avg.)

I went through the half in 1:21.58 and finished at 2:45 on the dot.

Yes