Gault's Kipchoge article is great

Gault is horrible writer. He's typical of the wannabe journalists. Gault is jealous that he can't rule his mind. The limits of human endurance don't end at 2:01:39, just like that they don't end in Ranger School. It's only the beginning.

bolt is a science experiment, most every record is a science experiment,"clean" paula was a science experiment,

track and field is a science experiment.

brojoes press and adulation is 100% flawed, in the sense that they kiss the asss of dopers, then turn on them when "caught",

the brojoes need to get in the loop, the inside to make it more real. they're forever blindsided by PED everything.

which is the plight of everyone that reads mainstream, with itself is science fiction.

when will they learn?

Great thread here, love the discussion. Thanks to Mr. Gault for initiating it.

Back in 2013, the great Kenyan, Paul Tergat came out and said ‘no will ever break 2 hours in the marathon.’ RoJo and Letsrun agreed.

I completely disagreed at the time. It will happen, I said then, though it may be a generation away (though I've re-thought that in the wake of 2:00:26 and 2:01:39) . In part, I wrote this in 2013:

As I’ve said before, I think what it will take is a Bolt-like prodigy to emerge on the distance front. He’ll be in the lineage of a Kenenisa Bekele or Haile Gebrselassie. (And ideally, that prodigy will have age cohorts that are similarly talented... to drive one another.)

Early in his career, he’ll be able to run 10K and 5K in the low-26:00 / low–mid 12:00 range… and then switch to focus on the marathon while still in his mid-late 20s.

The current record of 2:02:57 is a 4:41/mile pace. (Again, me writing in 2013.)

A 1:59:59 will require a pace of just under 4:35.

Fast forward to today. We have that prodigy, albeit he's now in his 30s. It's Eliud Kipchoge. Although I consider myself a reasonably informed track and field fan, I'm ashamed to admit Kipchoge wasn't front of mind for me in 2013 when I wrote the above. Here are a couple of aspects of the sub-2 discussion that I don't think Jon touched on directly:

1.) What caliber of athlete are we looking at when considering someone with a realistic chance of breaking 2 hours? I alluded to Geb and Bekele-level PRs above, but to be more specific, let's have a look at a partial list of Kipchoge's:

Mile: 3:50

2 mile (indoor): 8:07

3000: 7:27

5000: 12:46

10000: 26:49

1/2: 59:25

Of course, Geb's and Bekele's PRs are in the same range, with most being superior, between both Geb and Bekele (vs Kipchoge).

Some the marks these three guys have put up are outrageous when you consider the range. For example, Geb's indoor 1500 meter mark from Feb 1998 equates to about a 3:47/3:48 mile. And he counter-balances that with a 58:55 half marathon, and for a time, the world marathon record of 2:03:59. Both Bekele and Kipchoge show this same range. Extraordinary. And all three are cerebral, philosophical, and psychologically strong. Kipchoge's advantages in these mental facets of the marathon game are detailed here, in the recent NY Times piece linked to from Letsrun:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/14/sports/eliud-kipchoge-marathon.html

Our first sub-2 man will be an athlete like one of these. Looking around track and field right now, aside from Kipchoge, you'd want to keep an eye on Selemon Barega, who at 18, ran the year's fastest 5K, 12:43—the 4th fast all-time—in Brussels.

And since I mentioned Barega's age... here are some other notable ages (according to Wikipedia), of when these greats all ran their first marathon:

Geb: 29

Bekele: 32

Kipchoge: 28

2.) I don't think you can underestimate the psychological import/benefit of that 2:00:26 (as aided as it may have been) that Kipchoge carried with him into his record attempt in 2018 Berlin. Though he had pacers in the former, he had no 'official competitors/entrants/participants' for much of the attempt. Of his two fellows in that event, Lelisa dropped about a half hour in, and Tadese was gone before the halfway mark. So, much like his heroic 2018 Berlin chase, he was on his own for the 2nd half. The real value of the Nike experiment I believe for Kipchoge, was that he came out the other end of it knowing he could stay on his feet for the entire distance... carrying a pace of 4:35 per mile. All benefits of the event setup aside, his body still had to cover all 26.2 miles under his own power. That experience just had to provide him with a huge psychological touchstone in Berlin 2018.

Having said that, I do agree that for some foreseeable future, we are not going to see regular, further drops of that men's world marathon record. If anyone is to break 2:01:39 anytime soon, it will have to be Kipchoge himself. However, as evidenced by that time, I think it's safe to say that he is at the height of his marathon powers. And, much like he carried his 2:00:26 with him into Berlin 2018, he would carry not just his (unofficial) 2:00:26, but now also the official 2:01:39—a time he ran solo for the 2nd half—into Berlin, 2019 (or Rotterdam, or some other record-friendly course.

With Wilson Kipsang now 36, and Dennis Kimetto 34... it's likely Kipchoge would need to do it himself, unless (unlikely) one of those guys shows up and musters an effort to push him past the halfway mark at at even faster pace that this year's race. Or, another monster talent emerges somewhere in the world (also unlikely) over the next year. After what we just witnessed, I wouldn't put it past him.

Banana Bread wrote:

I don't like the way he says it brings an end to wr chases. Has he never heard of Bekele? I agree that nobody else will attempt a wr, but I believe Bekele can go 2:01:30 like he said himself.

He sure knows about Bekele but ignored him because Bekele is toast, spoiled goods, done for, irrelevant in the marathon.

Back in 2013, the great Kenyan, Paul Tergat came out and said ‘no will ever break 2 hours in the marathon.’ RoJo and Letsrun agreed.

Funny how many of those naysayers of five years ago have changed their tunes lately.

RunAnnArbor made some really good points about the sub-2 athlete profile, and I really like the emphasis on the mental part of EK succeeding in overcoming the "distance and time fear" involved in the marathon.

The other part that hasn't been discussed is the sub-optimal level of the Berlin course. 17 turns of 90 degrees or more....if a more optimal course is created then all other things being equal we would see at least a small cut into the 100s towards the sub-2 (and the weather, BTW, wasn't optimal either at Berlin).

You won't be saying that in a few weeks after he runs Amsterdam. I expect you to be hiding in your basement and will have no comeback. I'll hear the sweat sound of crickets chirping

now compare this to say a ruppy poop

800 Metres 1:50.00

1500 Metres 3:34.15

One Mile 3:52.11

3000 Metres 7:43.24

5000 Metres 12:58.90

10,000 Metres 26:44.36

10 Miles Road 46:24

20 Kilometres 59:04

Half Marathon 59:47

Marathon 2:06:07

strange that their mile is so close, 3k-5k not, and ruppy has him in the 10k, close ish on the half, but ruppy poop is NOT CLOSE at all at the marathon, wonder if thats the difference you get on them sauce?

casual obsever wrote:

Statman's Brother wrote:

I strongly disagree with the premise that the era is over.

Me too. A huge jump, but we had four years without a WR. That makes it less than 20 seconds per year as an averaged improvement.

Looking at the past:

1st 2:05 in 1999

1st 2:04 in 2003

1st 2:03 in 2008

1st 2:02 in 2014

1st 2:01 in 2018

So, 4 - 6 years per minute. No sign of slowing down yet.

That would mean:

First 2:00 in 2022 - 2024,

or a few years later (allowing for a slower improvement).

Your observation is unfortunately wrong. If you adhere to that theory, then it's 1:58...1:56...1:54....not gonna happen. What he did was something special, very special indeed.

Weather conditions were good. Perfect everything is rarely attained and when things get close to perfection, in terms of weather and such, the runner has to have it on that day, which is also rare. Look at Bekele's many attempts. On the right day, he'll do some serious damage to his pr. If not, then he's at where he's at.

Sorry, you can't have the time theory to go on and on and on, it simply doesn't work that way. With that thinking, it'll be 1:57 in 19 years. Splitting 58:30 and 58:30. Then the world half will be 54??? Nope, there are limits to what human beings can do for sprints and distances.

Enjoy the race for what it is and the action that goes out on the course.

goes on out on the course. Bad English;)

"Nope, there are limits to what human beings can do for sprints and distances"

While what you say is ostensibly logical, there really isn't any good science that supports this. I'll agree though that to calculate an averaged, arithmetical progression based on history and apply that to the future is likely to be inaccurate and is not a solid predictive method.

But, in the long-view, the Marathon record will always be reduced -- the only question is at what rate of improvement. Every era is likely to have at least one outlier like EK, and the era that has several outliers will produce a competitive situation that will create more, significant reductions in the WR. As has been reasoned on this thread, EK has reached the point where no other athlete can press him over the second half of the marathon distance.

It was a good article with the glaring exception that it completely omitted any discussion of PEDs. In this era, no world record in any Olympic/WC event should be perceived as PED-free.