IAAF saw the headlines/stories of Kipchoge WR replicated in NYT, ESPN, etc. They smell money, and a new face of athletics.
So, they're going to change the rules in order to sub 2 hours. Example: allowing 16 drink stations (like Monza) instead of 8.
IAAF saw the headlines/stories of Kipchoge WR replicated in NYT, ESPN, etc. They smell money, and a new face of athletics.
So, they're going to change the rules in order to sub 2 hours. Example: allowing 16 drink stations (like Monza) instead of 8.
I'd bet Jon Gault is right. We'll see a few more WR attempts from others in the near future, now that they see that 2:01:39 is possible, and then everyone who tries it will crash and burn, and after a few years, will see a long pause in WR attempts.
Ben L Wrong wrote:
IAAF saw the headlines/stories of Kipchoge WR replicated in NYT, ESPN, etc. They smell money, and a new face of athletics.
So, they're going to change the rules in order to sub 2 hours. Example: allowing 16 drink stations (like Monza) instead of 8.
What actually are the rules about drinks stations? Even then are there ways to get around it? I remember watching Commonwealth Games and seeing the runners pass water bottles to each other (it wasn't just team-mates either, though this was in the fairly early stages). Are the pacemakers allowed to pick up water and pass it to a competitor?
Uuummmmmm ever heard of Jakob Ingebrigtsen?
A well-written article, but nothing original. All of those things have been said by dozens and dozens of other people. Look at the thread on Kipchoge about 2 hours. Most of those same things were said, he just put it in a readable form. Nice article, but nothing nearly original.
(I posted about this elsewhere but it really belongs in this thread) I always enjoy Jonathan Gault's articles. When I watched Eliud Kipchoge cross the finish line in 2:01:39 my first thought was also that this record will last a long time. A couple days later, like any true American sports fan, I wanted more. When will we see a sub-2 hour marathon? After a little digging in the record books I was surprised the answer might be as soon as 2020. Looking at the 10 most recent marathon world records I asked how far back in time you’d have to go to match the WRs at 10000m and the half marathon to the pace the WR-setter ran in each of those 10 marathons. For instance, Kipchoge averaged 60:49 per half marathon last Sunday; 32 years ago in 1986 Mike Musyoki set a half marathon WR in 60:43. Likewise, Kipchoge’s 2:01:39 coverts to 28:50 per 10000m; 62 years ago in 1956 Sandor Iharos’s set the WR at 28:42. Just for kicks, you’d have to go back 86 years to Lauri Lehtinen’s 14:17 WR to closely match Kipchoge’s pace per 5k in Berlin (14:25). Stay with me here: if you do the same comparison for the 10 most recent WR marathons the average number of years it takes for the marathon WR pace to catch up to the WR half marathon is 27 years. The average for marathon to 10000m is 60 years. What happens when we apply the past to the future?
Let’s use these historical statistics to predict when we’ll see a 2 hour marathon; the first sub-60 half marathon was run in 1993 (Moses Tanui, 59:47), and 27 years after 1993 is 2020. 2 hours for the marathon comes out to 28:26 per 10000m. Pyotr Bolotnikov’s 28:18 in 1960 is the closest WR to 28:26, and 60 years after 1960 is, surprise, 2020. Both dates get you to 2020. Are we closer to a sub-2 hour marathon than we think?
I readily admit this is a simple analysis – no advanced statistics, no adjustment for all the important extraneous factors that affect record progression in these events differently. But, performances at 10000m and half marathon are more closely related to the marathon than any other event, so why not look at this approach? (full disclosure - the 5000m stats predict a 2 hour marathon in about 2031, but what fun is that argument?)
Since 2020 is an Olympic year, and Kipchoge will probably want to defend his title (although there's an interesting argument to the contrary), I’ll go with 2021 or 2022 for the first legit 1:59:xx marathon. Plus, who's to say there's not another Dennis Kimetto-type talent out there just waiting to be discovered?
(I tried posting the WR charts I used for this, but they copied over all jumbled up)
give it up, bekele will NOT get this record. Nope. He will always have the legendary 5k and 10k WR as the greatest distance runner but he will not get this one. He has well missed his chance. No way.
Bib #1 wrote:
I don’t get what he means by this:
“To put it differently, Kipchoge’s average pace for the marathon is faster than any other human being has ever run for either half of a full marathon.”
Lots of guys have run a faster average pace for the half marathon.
That's one of the lines I put in as an editor and Robert said it was inaccurate.
But it is accurate. Would it make more sense if we said, 1) "To put it differently, Kipchoge’s average pace for the marathon is faster than any other human being has ever run during the first half or second half of a full marathon."
The fastest anyone else has run for 1st or 2nd half of a marathon is 1:01:00 (London this year 1st half). Kipchoge averaged 1:00:49 per half.
FFF wrote:
The world is not going to lie down just because Kipchoge ran fast again. The race to 1:59 is larger now than it was when Dennis had the record.
Agreed. Every world class marathoner from East Africa is going to go for broke in the first half of London, Berlin etc. believing they can hold on.
Interesting to look at the 10K average split as equivalent to a four-minute mile (roughly). That is over four consecutive four-minute mile equivalents!
Evan Jagermeister wrote:
Indeed. How awesome would it be if the morning tv shows on espn rarely never talked about football and instead it was Gault debating some retired running talking heads like Shorter, Rudisha, etc.
David Rudisha or his dad?
Rather believe Berlin was a Beamonesque performance.
Marathoners will continue to chip away at the 2:02:57 old record, a few seconds at a time.
Unless Kipchoge takes it down further, don't expect it to be broken for another 30 years . . .
Great piece
I thought that we have seen the fastest marathon for quite some years now. The greatest marathoner of all time delivered his masterpiece. Everything came together soundly. His long career, lifetime miles and a growing wisdom about how to run the thon.
However, maybe a guy like Kamworor might surpass his master one day. Often the best guys rise to the level their competition. Now they all know that 2:01 is possible and a very special athlete can again go one better. Today I only see Kamworor to be capable.
Is American born Gault the one who always can tell us who is a true American & who isn't? That guy is the best!
Trumpettes are not Americans!
ToBeasy wrote:
Great piece
I thought that we have seen the fastest marathon for quite some years now. The greatest marathoner of all time delivered his masterpiece. Everything came together soundly. His long career, lifetime miles and a growing wisdom about how to run the thon.
However, maybe a guy like Kamworor might surpass his master one day. Often the best guys rise to the level their competition. Now they all know that 2:01 is possible and a very special athlete can again go one better. Today I only see Kamworor to be capable.
Statistically it will take at most four years for a new world record. Guys like Ingebrigtsen and Rhonex Kiprutu will attack the record. Bekele is over the hill . Maybe Kamworor . I coach a "Joker" that maybe is ready for the record in four years time. Thrilling future! :)
I think Kamworor is the best bet to take the record next, albeit not until he too looks like an old man. He’s got Sang and Eliud to learn from.
Evan Jagermeister wrote:
Indeed. How awesome would it be if the morning tv shows on espn rarely never talked about football and instead it was Gault debating some retired running talking heads like Shorter, Rudisha, etc.
That would be a train wreck. Gault can hardly speak.
Statman's Brother wrote:
I strongly disagree with the premise that the era is over.
Me too. A huge jump, but we had four years without a WR. That makes it less than 20 seconds per year as an averaged improvement.
Looking at the past:
1st 2:05 in 1999
1st 2:04 in 2003
1st 2:03 in 2008
1st 2:02 in 2014
1st 2:01 in 2018
So, 4 - 6 years per minute. No sign of slowing down yet.
That would mean:
First 2:00 in 2022 - 2024,
or a few years later (allowing for a slower improvement).
wejo wrote:
Bib #1 wrote:
I don’t get what he means by this:
“To put it differently, Kipchoge’s average pace for the marathon is faster than any other human being has ever run for either half of a full marathon.”
Lots of guys have run a faster average pace for the half marathon.
That's one of the lines I put in as an editor and Robert said it was inaccurate.
But it is accurate. Would it make more sense if we said, 1) "To put it differently, Kipchoge’s average pace for the marathon is faster than any other human being has ever run during the first half or second half of a full marathon."
The fastest anyone else has run for 1st or 2nd half of a marathon is 1:01:00 (London this year 1st half). Kipchoge averaged 1:00:49 per half.
Thanks. I get it now. It gets a bit clunky comparing average pace vs the fastest times ever run for the front and back half, but it is an interesting point. The way Kipchoge did it was by running probably the 2nd or 3rd fastest opening half, and then running a massive negative split in the second half whereas previous fast first halves have result in positive splits.
Bekele’s 2:03:03 effort featured a faster first half split I believe, and had the potential for a negative split if not for having turned tactical since Kipsang was a factor at the end.
Bekele might give the record a go one or two more times before all is said and done. I give him 20% chance of getting it done