OK, this is dumb, but bear with me. Some friends and I have been talking about a 1 mile (or 1600m depending on which track is available) relay race between 3 of them and me.
Friend A - 41 years old. 3:28 marathoner in recent years, but hasn't been running much if at all lately. Estimated 800m time: 2:45 best case, 3:15 worst case.
Friend B - 41 years old. 5+ hour marathoner, but runs somewhat regularly. Estimated 400m time: 1:25 best case, 1:40 worst case.
Friend C - 41 years old. 6'4", 230 lbs, 100% anaerobic guy. Can probably run 30 flat for 200, but not break 8:00 for a mile. Estimated 400m time: 1:15 best case, 1:30 worst case.
Me - 40 years old. 3:12 marathon in June of this year on 40mpw, currently running 20 mpw with no mile training. 5:27 recent-ish (full) mile PR.
The rules are that one of them has to run two consecutive legs, but they can choose who runs which legs and in what order.
Of course, I'm pretty sure they'll have Friend A run the first two legs, Friend B run leg 3, and Friend 4 run leg 4. It doesn't make sense any other way.
So the question is... what should my tactics be?
If I run hard from the gun, I can probably gut out a 5:30-5:35 or so on the limited training I've been on. So, I could try to go out in 80 and gap Friend A, hoping that he gives up a little bit and coasts to something like 3:10, which gives me a huge lead on Friend B, who's best-case 400m is right around my PR mile pace anyway. More likely, I will increase the gap on Friend B and hope that it's enough to outlast Friend C when I'm fading from having gone out too fast.
Alternatively... I was thinking about letting Friend A lead the first two laps at whatever pace he likes. He probably won't be a good judge of 800m effort having not run short stuff for a while, and 3:10 may feel like he's going pretty fast. Then I could do the same with Friend B - I doubt he'd break 90 from the front. Maybe more like 1:40.
That would put me at ~4:40-4:50 for 1200 meters which is slower than my 5k pace and should leave me with a healthy kick. I feel like I should be able to run 72-75 off that pace, which *should* be faster than friend C can muster.
But IDK. Which approach do you think gives me a better chance to win? What are my overall chances to win?