maybe 1% for both of them happening as dirty wrs and 0% chance of them happening clean
maybe 1% for both of them happening as dirty wrs and 0% chance of them happening clean
There will be no world records this weekend. Settle down, everyone. In Berlin, you're going to see one guy on the downward slope of the bell curve and see another maybe finish. In the half, well, this isn't Dubai.
The odds are better on Sun than Mon.
Banana Bread wrote:
maybe 1% for both of them happening as dirty wrs and 0% chance of them happening clean
well obviously clean is way too much to wish for.
= 1/365 * 1/5 * 1/365 * 1/5
if every day was the same.
which they are not.
take it from there.
HahaRiiiiiiight wrote:
You guys act like it's so easy to just show up and crank out a 2:02:xx hahahahahaha. Even Kipchoge knows to run 2:02 EVERYTHING has to go PERFECTLY - weather, pacing, etc. There's a reason it's only been done ONCE. The chances Kipsang and Kipchoge both run 2:02? About .00000000003%.
I'll put Kipchoge's WR chances at 20% - and that's only because he's that much of a badass.
True, everything has to be perfect. That explains Kipchoge in 2015 Berlin( shoe problem), Kipchoge again 2017 ( rain) and this year in London( heat - high temps). In 2016 Berlin, it was inadequate pace making and the 'fear' of tough competition from Bekele that caused Kipsang not to break the record.
But you have to be out of touch with the sport to not believe the two are capable of breaking Kimetto's record. Kipchoge has been capable from way back in 2016 when he ran 2:03:05 in London, a course that is not known for fast times especially on the men's race. That day had he been chasing the record he could have run around 2:02:40. Kipsang would have broken the record in 2016 Berlin even with poor pacing. The presence of Bekele made it a tactical race with Kipsang taking off too early and too fast trying to run away from Bekele. This time the problem won't happen since for the most part Kipchoge and Kipsang are good friends and will work together irrespective of who gets the win.
I dunno, maybe if Joey decides to run 2 races in the same day we both records will go down, or maybe he will go out in 58 and break the half then break the whole.
The half marathon record sure isn't going down this weekend
The men's marathon world record will be broken this Sunday along with the women's half marathon world record. You read it here first!!!
Defeo2020TheRealOne wrote:
I dunno, maybe if Joey decides to run 2 races in the same day we both records will go down, or maybe he will go out in 58 and break the half then break the whole.
The half marathon record sure isn't going down this weekend
Wishing in both Hands wrote:
Hope Europe has good weather.
The weather might be freaking fantastic - currently headed towards 50-60°F and cloudy with minor to no wind.
Sand Dunes wrote:
https://youtu.be/pjvQFtlNQ-MAnoDane wrote:
Confuzzled, it's pure nonsens. There's not always 50% chance something will happen.
Ha good link
Math Genius wrote:
Odds are11.11% of both records being broken in the same day.
3 outcomes for World Record in Marathon - Broken, Exactly Tied, or Not Broken
Thus there is a 1 in 3 chance of a new marathon world record.
Similarly, there are three possible outcomes for the Half Marathon WR - Broken, Exactly Tied, or Not Broken
So, also a 1 in 3 chance of a new half marathon world record.
And, as any 4th grade math student could tell you, when compounding odds, you must multiple the fractions together.
Thus: 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/9.
End of Thread.
End of Letsrun.com message board.
But these three outcomes are not equally weighted, the chances of someone (presumably Kipchoge) equaling the 2:0:2.57 record exactly is less than 1%. The chances he breaks it are no more than 25% so the chances of not setting the record is above 74%.
I love this part from the presentation page: "Mary Wacera Ngugi, Her 66:29 was the US all comers record. Won Utica, Boston 10k, 3rd at Falmouth this year. 66:50 in Houston this year. One of Sammy Wanjiru’s wives."
ONE OF Sammy Wanjiru’s wives, he-he!
If us young American men were allowed to have more than one wife - Would we to have as many elite men up front on every distance 800-Marathon?
Subway Surfers wrote:
Math Genius wrote:
Odds are11.11% of both records being broken in the same day.
3 outcomes for World Record in Marathon - Broken, Exactly Tied, or Not Broken
Thus there is a 1 in 3 chance of a new marathon world record.
Similarly, there are three possible outcomes for the Half Marathon WR - Broken, Exactly Tied, or Not Broken
So, also a 1 in 3 chance of a new half marathon world record.
And, as any 4th grade math student could tell you, when compounding odds, you must multiple the fractions together.
Thus: 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/9.
End of Thread.
End of Letsrun.com message board.
But these three outcomes are not equally weighted, the chances of someone (presumably Kipchoge) equaling the 2:0:2.57 record exactly is less than 1%. The chances he breaks it are no more than 25% so the chances of not setting the record is above 74%.
So, I believe the above posts are only partially correct. Let us denote probability of the world record for men as P(m) and for women as P(w). Assuming the two are independent, probability of the world record in Berlin is given by P(m)*P(w). Note that this is quite a strong assumption as they are correlated: if there is bad weather in Berlin on Sunday, the likelihood for both records being broken is lower.
Now, what are P(m) and P(w)? Well, I think the world record for men was broken 6 times out of the last 15 times during the Berlin marathon. So P(m)=6/15=40% sounds like a good estimate. For women, the world record has not been broken in 15 years. So, this is a low probability event, which is hard to estimate. One way to do this would be by looking at distribution of 10km performances by Dibaba who is faster than Radclife (some 29:45 vs 30:00, I am lazy to look it up) , combine it with her four marathons, fit a distribution, and calculate probability that she run’s faster than Radclife. That’s quite a bit of work, so I am going to provide a quick arbitrary guestimate of P(w)=1%. Someone may have a better idea how to do that.
Given the above assumptions and estimates, probability of the world marathon record in Berlin on Sunday is 0.40*0.01=0.0040 or 0.4%.
Ruminator wrote:
Well, I think the world record for men was broken 6 times out of the last 15 times during the Berlin marathon. So P(m)=6/15=40% sounds like a good estimate.
This is getting along the right tracks - here we have the probability that the WR would be broken at this given event as opposed to another marathon.
However, if we're looking at the probability of the WR be broken at this particular year's running of the event, we also need to look at the frequency this occurs at the event, i.e. is it once every three, four, five years?
So we have the combination of PwrC (prob wr course) * PCwrY (prob course wr year).
Subway Surfers wrote:
Math Genius wrote:
Odds are11.11% of both records being broken in the same day.
3 outcomes for World Record in Marathon - Broken, Exactly Tied, or Not Broken
Thus there is a 1 in 3 chance of a new marathon world record.
Similarly, there are three possible outcomes for the Half Marathon WR - Broken, Exactly Tied, or Not Broken
So, also a 1 in 3 chance of a new half marathon world record.
And, as any 4th grade math student could tell you, when compounding odds, you must multiple the fractions together.
Thus: 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/9.
End of Thread.
End of Letsrun.com message board.
But these three outcomes are not equally weighted, the chances of someone (presumably Kipchoge) equaling the 2:0:2.57 record exactly is less than 1%. The chances he breaks it are no more than 25% so the chances of not setting the record is above 74%.
Now you are adding your stupid subjective opinion into an objective discussion of facts.
"no more than 25%..." - says the idiot who replied to a troll post.
Sand Dunes wrote:
https://youtu.be/pjvQFtlNQ-MAnoDane wrote:
Confuzzled, it's pure nonsens. There's not always 50% chance something will happen.
If it is given that 60% of the time it works every time, then the probability that it will work is 0.6 + 0.4 * x, 0 < x < 1, which has a lower bound of 0.6 and an upper bound of 1.0.
I like it.
Work ethics beats talent all day wrote:
HahaRiiiiiiight wrote:
You guys act like it's so easy to just show up and crank out a 2:02:xx hahahahahaha. Even Kipchoge knows to run 2:02 EVERYTHING has to go PERFECTLY - weather, pacing, etc. There's a reason it's only been done ONCE. The chances Kipsang and Kipchoge both run 2:02? About .00000000003%.
I'll put Kipchoge's WR chances at 20% - and that's only because he's that much of a badass.
True, everything has to be perfect. That explains Kipchoge in 2015 Berlin( shoe problem), Kipchoge again 2017 ( rain) and this year in London( heat - high temps). In 2016 Berlin, it was inadequate pace making and the 'fear' of tough competition from Bekele that caused Kipsang not to break the record.
But you have to be out of touch with the sport to not believe the two are capable of breaking Kimetto's record. Kipchoge has been capable from way back in 2016 when he ran 2:03:05 in London, a course that is not known for fast times especially on the men's race. That day had he been chasing the record he could have run around 2:02:40. Kipsang would have broken the record in 2016 Berlin even with poor pacing. The presence of Bekele made it a tactical race with Kipsang taking off too early and too fast trying to run away from Bekele. This time the problem won't happen since for the most part Kipchoge and Kipsang are good friends and will work together irrespective of who gets the win.
Of course Kipchoge is capable, but let's be honest - he's widely known to be around 40, maybe older at this point. His best chances may have come and gone. As for Kipsang, he's done nothing since 2016 Berlin that would indicate he's capable of approaching the WR.
The WR is strong - there's a reason it still stands....
Kipsang?!?! wrote:
The WR is strong - there's a reason it still stands....
A WR that has gone down multiple times in the last 15 years are not really that strong.
Sure, there's the shoe material r(evolution) over that period to account for, but that hasn't stopped abruptly now, has it? ;-)
Kipsang?!?! wrote:
Work ethics beats talent all day wrote:
True, everything has to be perfect. That explains Kipchoge in 2015 Berlin( shoe problem), Kipchoge again 2017 ( rain) and this year in London( heat - high temps). In 2016 Berlin, it was inadequate pace making and the 'fear' of tough competition from Bekele that caused Kipsang not to break the record.
But you have to be out of touch with the sport to not believe the two are capable of breaking Kimetto's record. Kipchoge has been capable from way back in 2016 when he ran 2:03:05 in London, a course that is not known for fast times especially on the men's race. That day had he been chasing the record he could have run around 2:02:40. Kipsang would have broken the record in 2016 Berlin even with poor pacing. The presence of Bekele made it a tactical race with Kipsang taking off too early and too fast trying to run away from Bekele. This time the problem won't happen since for the most part Kipchoge and Kipsang are good friends and will work together irrespective of who gets the win.
As for Kipsang, he's done nothing since 2016 Berlin that would indicate he's capable of approaching the WR.
The WR is strong - there's a reason it still stands....
I have heard that Kipsang solo-ed a 2:03 in Tokyo last year, so he's done a little more than nothing I suppose.
Confuzzled wrote:
It is obviously 25%. 50% chance for marathon, either they will or they won't, thus 50%. 50% chance for half, either they will or they won't, thus 50%.
Using basic stats:
50% x 50% = .50 x .50
.50 x .50 = .25
.25 = 25%
You forgot about the women's races.
The probability of a record in ALL FOUR is actually 1/16 = 6.25%