Marathon this Weekend... Time Estimate?

ThisWeekend wrote:

PBs

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Mara: 2:59:46 (2016)

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This year I started some triathlon training again, though nowhere near as much, and just got round a 1:23:40 half mara in March.

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• 9 days ago I ran 60 minutes / 8.8 miles at 2:57 pace (6:44/mile) but was slower the second half and struggling for the last 10 mins, was right in the middle of a 22 miler though so had already been running an hour at this point

• 5 days ago I ran 51 minutes / 7.6 miles at 2:55 pace (6:41/mile) but the second half was actually quicker than the first and felt like I could probably continue at that pace, this was part of a 16 miler and had probably ran about 4 miles before this point and then continued for a few more miles not that much slower than 3 hour mara pace and felt OK

I've run 39 marathons, so I have some experience with these calculations.

* The 2:59 was not too long ago, so it shows you have potential.

* My marathon times are usually double my half plus 7-20 minutes. So 2*1:23:40+ (7 to 10 minutes) = 2:47 + (7 to 10 minutes) = 2:54 to 2:57

* I found that I can predict my marathon pace by running as fast as I can for the last 1/4 or 1/3 of a long run. So, your 2:55 and 2:57 paces are good indicators.

Thus, putting together the above, I will predict that you will run 2:56

ThisWeekend wrote:

Plan was to go out at 2:58 and try to hold on... but I know I might just blow at some point.

Based on my above post, you should hit the half in 1:28. This should feel comfortable since it's 4-5 minutes slower than your half. If you can hang on, you'll get the 2:56. If you slip to 1:32 for the 2nd half, you can still go sub-3, and BQ by 5 minutes.

* Do you think you're in better or worse half shape than 1:23 in March?

* Can you do long runs at a sold (~7:30) pace or more like 8:30+?

3:03. You've maxed out at 50 and yet done a 22 miler, which tells me that you're almost certainly doing these workouts on relatively fresh legs. Definitely not the same thing as hitting them at the end of a 70 mile week. When I'd go into my workouts on low mileage, I'd frequently be able to manage great, confidence building times, only to see my race day performance barely eclipse those workouts. I think going out at 2:58 would be a mistake. Only caveat I have is you might be able to get there IF your other miles are very heavy on quality. Not that I think It's very effective to do low mileage, high quality marathon training, but it would at least suggest that these workouts are done on fatigued legs.

Probably better running shape (though definitely not overall fitness due to the lack of swimming/cycling and therefore reduced weekly training)

Long runs usually 7:20-7:40, but haven't had that many. Probably only about 8 runs of 15 miles or more.

Should say that I'm also about 10lbs over when I ran 2:59 and all my other pbs

Very fair point regarding the relatively fresh legs on little mileage.

It's unlikely I will run anything slower than 3:02, as if I'm running at that pace I am also tempted to drop out and save the legs for another marathon I have lined up for 4 weeks time. It's BQ or bust I guess

ThisWeekend wrote:

Probably better running shape (though definitely not overall fitness due to the lack of swimming/cycling and therefore reduced weekly training)

Long runs usually 7:20-7:40, but haven't had that many. Probably only about 8 runs of 15 miles or more.

Should say that I'm also about 10lbs over when I ran 2:59 and all my other pbs

I recently failed epically on a last minute BQ with a similar story. I ran 1:22 off a decent base in late April so I was in shape. I played ultimate during the summer and focused less on training, but I got in similar workouts - long tempos in the 6:40-6:50 range, with a best of 14 at 6:48 pace when I was sore from an ultimate game the day before.

The big difference was my 20-mile long runs were an absolute slog (didn't wear a watch but I would guess 8:30 pace). My excuse was it was soreness + hot weather, but turns out that didn't cut it. While your lack of longer MP efforts is concerning, if you do long runs around 7:30, that's a good sign.

Race day I ran 3:01 pace for about 18 miles and blew up, finishing in 3:17. I lost some fitness from the spring but I estimate I was at least in 1:25 half shape on the day. Anyway keep a positive attitude towards the race and hope it turns out better.

3:11:45

2:59-3:00

4:29

No - UK based. 60F and rain

Bump. How was it?

Bump for UK timezone

What was your time?

big fail.

Went through halfway in 1:27:30 but was already hurting a lot more than had hoped, plus running on gravel/rocky towpath left my feet shredded slightly, and realised I was unlikely to hold on for a 1:32:30 second half or so. Was also running completely solo and not feeling it.

Pulled the plug at 15 miles or so for a DNF so that hopefully I can get 2 x 60 mile (very big for me) weeks in ahead of next marathon in 4 weeks time. Got 14 miles in at least at sub 3 pace, but would have been nicer to do closer to 20

Obvious guy. Obvious answer wrote:

3:11:45

Ditto

Sorry it didn't work out, I just saw this thread.

In the last 10 weeks you ran 350 miles, but 4 weeks over 40 and 1 over 50? That means in the last 10 weeks you averaged less than 28 mpw for the other 5 of those weeks? And I'm guessing even lower in the period prior to that? You have to be bonkers fast to run sub 3 on that sort of mileage.

I usually hate the "run more" answer, but dude...you have to run more.