What’s your opinion on home price appreciation forecast over next couple years in USA?

i think ur dum

Can only speak for San Diego, but current market is still very tight. Low inventory, homes being sold at or over list price. Time on the market has increased a little in the last few months. Still a high % of cash buyers, *lots* of foreign/part time resident buyers who don't have any problem paying $700k-$1 million+ in cash. I bought in 2011 and have seen a huge run-up in prices. That sort of run-up will likely not continue though.

Real estate is local, and making nationwide predictions is very difficult because markets vary so much. In highly desirable places like the Bay Area and SoCal, structural constraints will continue to drive prices higher in the long term. Restrictive zoning, limited land, lack of new construction and volume of local and foreign buyers puts upward pressure on prices.

I am a dancer at a club in San Diego... here is my perspective.

I own 4 houses that cost about $1million each. The teaser rate mortgages that I signed up for cost me about $1k per month total (my tips easily cover that). I am going to sell my rates adjust to $5k each. Housing prices are going to continue going up, because well they always do. Like when are people going to stop buying homes?

I think the current real estate market is a bubble, but not as big as 2007. I was recently in Las Vegas and saw a commercial saying, "Don't have the 5% to put as a down payment? No problem!" I thought, "Here we go again."

A house in my neighborhood went up for sale about 2 months ago, ended up cutting $100k off the asking price, and still couldn't sell, so some renters just moved in. I think the housing market is cold, and going to get colder. Especially if mortgage rates continue to rise.

Looking on Zillow there are several houses listed for 90+ days, and the forecast for my zip code is a decrease in value of 0.5%. Zillow is usually overly optimistic about these things, and even they are forecasting a decrease in values.

As for the US economy and stocks, my guess is we'll have a recession some time in the next 5 years. As the housing market goes, so goes the US economy.

Why do you think taxes are likely to increase on the middle to upper class?

SD Dancer wrote:

I am a dancer at a club in San Diego... here is my perspective.

I own 4 houses that cost about $1million each. The teaser rate mortgages that I signed up for cost me about $1k per month total (my tips easily cover that). I am going to sell my rates adjust to $5k each. Housing prices are going to continue going up, because well they always do. Like when are people going to stop buying homes?

The same can be said of a whole lot of things (clothes, milk, bicycles, chairs . . . ). Is there some reason to believe that home values will on average appreciate faster than inflation over time? On the face of it, that would seem like a fairly odd assumption.

Inflationarially Speaking wrote:

SD Dancer wrote:

I am a dancer at a club in San Diego... here is my perspective.

I own 4 houses that cost about $1million each. The teaser rate mortgages that I signed up for cost me about $1k per month total (my tips easily cover that). I am going to sell my rates adjust to $5k each. Housing prices are going to continue going up, because well they always do. Like when are people going to stop buying homes?

The same can be said of a whole lot of things (clothes, milk, bicycles, chairs . . . ). Is there some reason to believe that home values will on average appreciate faster than inflation over time? On the face of it, that would seem like a fairly odd assumption.

This story is from a movie (The Big Short). Home prices are overcooked and a correction is due, question is, when? Or will the economy continue to grow into its overcooked asset values? Will Central Banks continue to intervene?

Runner, financial professional wrote:

What’s your opinion on home price appreciation forecast over next couple years in USA?

My opinion, curious to know what you think:

I think housing prices are pretty solid, lenders hopefully are lending mostly to those on solid footing (unlike 2006-2008), but the days of bidding wars and double digit appreciation in the hot markets are numbered and housing appreciation may track inflation (2-3%) from now on. If anything, what was formerly the subprime customer group

is stuck into things that could be the real “bubbles:” student loans, car loans, those duped into crypto currency speculation because they believe in conspiracies, etc are most likely to cause problems and/or get screwed in life.

I think another factor is where do you live? Here in the greater Seattle area (Microsoftland) our housing prices are artificially high. Besides the big "M", there is Amazon building like crazy, Google, Zillow, Boeing, and a host of other high tech companies. There's a big influx of people moving here and not nearly enough houses so there is a bit of supply and demand affecting house prices as well. In areas close to Microsoft houses run from 650K to 2-3M. A 1M dollar house isn't all that much here. Glad I bought 16 years ago as I can't afford to buy my own house if I could only put 20% down.