Jakob vs Kerr vs Hunter vs G.Manangoi

Going by pure probability, Jakob, because his PR is faster than the others and it's fast enough that there's a chance any or all of the other three never reach it, even if Jakob stopped running tomorrow. But that's no fun. George probably has the most upside, although it's very close between him and Jakob. Kerr and Hunter might go the more Centro route in terms of global medals but not super fast PRs, although Hunter needs to get better at tactics and Kerr might need a little more speed.

All told, I think Jakob and George will each end up with 3:27/28 PRs. Hunter and Kerr around 3:31/32. Any have the potential to eventually win global medals, but Jakob I think is most likely, followed closely by George, followed a little less closely by Kerr, followed a little less closely by Hunter.

So far we have:

1) Jakob: 3:31.18

2) Kerr: 3:35.01

3) George: 3:35.53

4) Hunter: 3:35.90

Why no love for Murphy? His 1500 time's not stellar, but he's got the best mile time.

Making a list & Checking it twice wrote:

Why no love for Murphy? His 1500 time's not stellar, but he's got the best mile time.

He’s too old

Hunter will be keeping America great again. He's taking the smart long and slow approach.

Centro will be taking gold again in 2020, then Hunter takes over in 2024 & 28. The GOLD stays in America!

Hunter's PR in 2024 will be 3:29. The others will be around 3:30 range.

ShipYard wrote:

Going by pure probability, Jakob, because his PR is faster than the others and it's fast enough that there's a chance any or all of the other three never reach it, even if Jakob stopped running tomorrow. But that's no fun. George probably has the most upside, although it's very close between him and Jakob. Kerr and Hunter might go the more Centro route in terms of global medals but not super fast PRs, although Hunter needs to get better at tactics and Kerr might need a little more speed.

All told, I think Jakob and George will each end up with 3:27/28 PRs. Hunter and Kerr around 3:31/32. Any have the potential to eventually win global medals, but Jakob I think is most likely, followed closely by George, followed a little less closely by Kerr, followed a little less closely by Hunter.

I agree it does seem Jakob will end up being faster than the others. Even with a burnout in the early 20s he could still reach at least 3:28. George may be close but he seems more of closer rather than a time trialer. I think people may be surprised how much faster Kerr could be, and I believe he does have quite a bit of upside. He has a 400/800 runners body, so quite strong and likely durable. I don't think he has been in a single fast international race so I don't think we have seen anywhere near his current potential which is likely more like 3:33. I could see Kerr hitting 3:30 in a couple of years.

Hunter seems like a wildcard to me. He has the least fluid stride of three as well.

Making a list & Checking it twice wrote:

Why no love for Murphy? His 1500 time's not stellar, but he's got the best mile time.

Yea, Murphy is a bit outside the age range of these guys but regardless, I don't see him having a faster 1500 PR than any of these guys a few years from now. He'll be a danger in the championship races no doubt. He's a much better 800 runner.

Ingrebrigtsen: 3:28.41

Kerr: 3:28.59

Manangoi: 3:29.24

Hunter: 3:31.07

Hunter is going to be a lot better as a 5000m man

winnr1 wrote:

Hunter is going to be a lot better as a 5000m man

Better than Jakob?

Wanton soop wrote:

winnr1 wrote:

Hunter is going to be a lot better as a 5000m man

Better than Jakob?

off the dope or on?

Nostradamoos wrote:

Ingrebrigtsen: 3:28.41

Kerr: 3:28.59

Manangoi: 3:29.24

Hunter: 3:31.07

I actually kinda agree with this. Sure, and Hunter eventually at 12:52 for 5000.

Where is Kerr anyways? He was the young sensation during the spring and now he's nowhere to be heard of. Injured?

Hunter just doesn’t strike me as having enough 400/800 speed to run 3:31-low. I definitely see the 5000 as his long term destination, given his 800 PR has stayed roughly the same since high school. I see him more as an eventual 3:32high 3:33low guy. Perhaps that’s splitting hairs, I just think 3:31 is a bit too quick.