Here is what will happen in Friday's European 1500 Final

I would bet a lot of money that its gonna be won in slower than 3:39 with a last 800 under 1:52.

Chris O'Hare will medal!

O'Hare will make them cry, no way they'll finish 1-2-3.

Would be nice to see an honest pace in a 1500 final for once but I don't see it happening here. More likely to be won in a time of 3:40 -3:45. O'Hare might medal but the Brit with the best chance is Jake Wightman; regularly sub 1:46 for 800 and tactically pretty astute.

In fact, I'll go so far as to tip him for the gold. If it is a fast race the brothers might dominate but there is a world of difference between running fast in paced races in a Diamond League event and winning a slow championship race.

Wightman has the wheels in a slow race!

True, but I think FI has shown he can do both, winning in 3:46 two years ago (Wightman 7th but much faster now!)

No other Europeans are at the Ingebrigtsens' level. Like all national/regional champs in FIFA WC years, this is a huge waste of everyone's time. If they win, it will be in a meaningless 3:35 at best. If they lose, it will be an equally meaningless 3:35 by someone else. Nobody will remember it, nobody will mention it next time they race.

They could have kept going after sub-3:30 when they had the chance. Instead they'll be past their peak by Zurich/Brussels, and maybe over the hill next year, and never get there at all.

You still in Kordovia, bro?

Bad Wigins wrote:

No other Europeans are at the Ingebrigtsens' level. Like all national/regional champs in FIFA WC years, this is a huge waste of everyone's time. If they win, it will be in a meaningless 3:35 at best. If they lose, it will be an equally meaningless 3:35 by someone else. Nobody will remember it, nobody will mention it next time they race.

They could have kept going after sub-3:30 when they had the chance. Instead they'll be past their peak by Zurich/Brussels, and maybe over the hill next year, and never get there at all.

But if they win they'll have one more title (or medal) and much more publicity (Who even watches Diamond League?).

Titles and medals count, times are secondary.

JI over the hill next year???

Monaco is 2sec faster than other tracks. When they run sub-3:30 elsewhere it is ok.

Why would they not use their biggest strength to their advantage? That strength obviously being their aerobic strength.

Rewind back in the season and look back to when Jakob ran in the front of his 3:36.06 PR race, and when he took the lead at Stanford from a ways out.

I truly believe we are going to see a Paul Chelimo-esque type final mentality when he blasted that 13:08 in the heat solo, except with the loyal trio working together.

Henrik is going to be the sacrificial lamb tomorrow, but it will not be in vain.

Aerobic strength doesn't necessarily mean it's wise to go like a bullet from the get go. They can gradually strung it out after 500m like El Guerrouj in 2004 and it will still play well to their aerobic conditioning, no need to lead all the way.

They can close in 52 in a tactical affair, but I believe that Lewandowsky or O'Hare can threat for the win as well. (especially the polish athlete). He ran 1:43 some years ago.

Steven St. Croix wrote:

Henrik is going to be the sacrificial lamb tomorrow, but it will not be in vain.

THIS is the key. This will be a rabbited final. The talk of 1,2,3 is garbage and what they really want is a 1,2 finish with a finals record.

Henrik will pace through 800m in 1:52, 1200m in 2:48 and then fade to finish maybe 7th. FI for the win in 3:30mid JI 2nd in 3:31 low.

Thank you! You are right about 1,2,3 being incorrect. I was wrong on picking Henrik for third. I definitely believe Henrik is humble enough, regardless of his strong personality, to admit within their training camp and to himself that he is not fit enough this year to run 3:31, but can provide the work his brothers need through 1200 as that sacrificial lamb.

If this turns into a tactical affair then beware of Lewandowski with a 1:43.29 PB. If he is sitting on them with 400m to go, I would not feel confident betting against him. As for O Hare Vs. Lewandoski in a kick? I'd take Lewandoski all day if it is a relatively conservative pace, but would still say O Hare is not far off what Lewandoski is capable of in his ability to change gears into top speed at the end.

Again, I stand by my prediction at 1-2, the pace they run/splits, on the finishing times, and how the family strategy WILL play out. Henrik has conveyed there are big plans, and I do not think the plan is to just hang out in the pack.

Whether Henrik hangs on the last 300m will be interesting...I definitely believe we will see a man having one of those brutal races where he is faced with one of the most challenging mental and physical situations, and will have to leave everything on the track to hang on to position over the last 300m. The other two are fit enough where they could manage medals without 100% effort.

Exactly - I wish I could watch. But I am in Canada :( .... It will be fun seeing what Henrik is made of today...