Hey all, I haven’t posted on this thread yet (only lurked a bit), but I thought this would be a good spot to get some feedback on if I should go after a sub 2:30 in 1.5 weeks. I don’t mean to hijack your thread considering I am not already active poster, so feel free to tell me to post my question as its own separate thread.
Here’s the gist of what I am asking for those who don’t want to read everything:
TL;DR: I ran a Marathon Pace workout of 16.29 miles in 5:52/mi pace at 5280 ft of altitude 4 weeks out from my goal race (Flat course. Good weather expected). It was basically the best workout of my cycle by far (Other MP workouts were between 6:00-6:10/mi). Should I take a stab at going after sub 2:30 or should I just settle for targeting 2:32-2:34???
More context and details:
Between December 2011 and October 2013, I ran 4 straight marathons between 2:31:17 and 2:33:30. Specifically, it went like this with my comparable MP workouts also at altitude in parentheses:
Dec 2011: 2:33:21 (4 weeks out from this race I ran 16.29 miles at 5:59/mi pace)
Fall 2012: 2:33:15 (3 or 4 weeks out from this race I ran 18 miles at 5:53/mi pace)
Spring 2013: 2:31:17 (Not really a comparable data point but 4 weeks out was a 5 mile/10 mile race double, and I did a half marathon around 5:50 pace 2 weeks out)
Fall 2013: 2:32:57 (3 or 4 weeks out from this race I ran 17 miles at 5:53/mi pace)
For the latter 3, I felt like my training indicated on the “right day” I could go under 2:30, but I never really got that “right day” for a variety of reasons probably. Regardless, I felt like I was on the cusp and just needed to have a decent day to make it happen….
Since then I battled some injuries and health issues that I won’t get into. In Spring 2016, I came back and ran a 2:38:30 largely alone on a very rainy and windy day off of lackluster winter training of mostly just mileage and marathon pace runs/workouts that were hit or miss. Then I got in really good shape for a Fall 2016 marathon only to blow up in due to some Achilles bursitis/haglunds deformity in both heels that started developing in my last few weeks of training and really hit me hard on race day (seemed like my racing shoes were the main instigator of the injury). It took me over a year to figure out how to manage it, and I started finally training consistently again in Fall 2017. I ran a few okay half marathons last winter and spring, and I was finally completely pain free this summer.
I was thinking sub 2:35 would be a good goal when I started my training. Then my last key marathon pace workout happened 2.5 weeks ago (4 weeks out from race day-November 3). I ran 16.29 miles (26.22 KM) at 5:52/mi pace at altitude (5280 ft in elevation). I closed super well: first several miles were 5:55-5:57. Next few were 5:50-5:55, and then I closed in 5:48, 5:31 (I think last 5k was around 17:45 and last 13.1 was about 76:45), and there was definitely a lot more in the tank. I easily felt like I had at least 20 in me at the low 5:50 pace.
Now my other marathon pace effort workouts were another story. I did 3 other MP workouts (Every other week) that were 6:00-6:10/mi for the MP parts: 10 miles moderate (~6:45/mi)/10 miles MP, 8 miles moderate/12 miles MP, and 6 miles moderate/14 miles MP. I never really felt sharp or great in any of those other workouts, and I had a few miles in the middle of each were I lost the pace (dropping to 6:20/mi) only to refind it for the last few miles.
Other training notes: I ran mostly 100-105 MPW since August (I peaked at 120 during base build in July) with long runs of 24-26 miles at 6:50-7:10 pace on weeks when I didn’t do MP workouts. I did 3 weeks up (100-105 MPW) 1 week down (80 mpw with an off day). My midweek workouts cycled largely the same as they used to back in the day (2011-2013), but most of the time they were maybe a few seconds per mile slower than when I used to do them back then (I do factor in that my day-day weekday life is much more stressful now than it was back then, so I am not too worried about the slower midweek times)…
So here’s the bottom line question: I was going to target a 2:32-34, but is that one workout when combined with the solid but not fantastic bulk of the rest of my training enough to say I should take a shot at sub 2:30 again. I am confident in my ability to run even or a modest a negative split (15-30 seconds negative). With a 2:32-34 goal in mind: I was thinking of going out in 1:16:00-1:16:30. If I were to go after a sub 2:30. I would probably need to go out in 1:15:15 or faster to have a shot. I don’t think I could run a second half marathon in much faster than 1:14:30 but who knows…. I am leaning towards the more modest strategy, but wanted to see if anyone here could convince me otherwise.