Jo72 wrote:
This is not proof against Ivan but the SU was obviously not the only doping country in the 1980s (or at any other time). Whereas sub 3:57 are rare and sub 3:55 times were only run by Dibaba, the Chinese and Eastern bloc athletes in the 80s, so there is enough prima facie facts against Ivan to be at least suspicious.
I really wonder what Semenya will do. She did not seem to run full out at her 3:59 PB earlier this year. But I don't think her 1:54 (or potentially faster) will fully tranfer to the 1500. She also ran a 1000m South African record, a distance rarely run, so "sandbagging" should not be necessary, but she ran only 2:35 which seems very weak compared to her 800m times.
Muir can break 3:55 though. And there's no reason why anyone should think Muir is doping. 3:53.98 is not at all out of the realm of possibility for Muir, or Hassan for that matter. Which makes me think there is no reason Paula Ivan was a doper unless someone has some actual evidence/hearsay other than "she's Bulgarian" which is not very concrete. Soviet, sure. But Bulgarian??
Semenya probably could run 3:56/3:57 maybe.