ex-runner wrote:
Your maths about Rudisha is off btw, the formula says he should run the 1500m in 3:29. Or, in 3:26.8 if you use a theoretical 5 second conversion. Or, more likely, he could run the 400m a bit faster in peak shape but he never raced it.
Again, I don't like the formula I think it's a rough rule of thumb that only works for certain 800/1500 athletes. Semenya will NEVER approach anything like a 4/5 second conversion, that's the type of conversion Coe might have had, it's an endurance type.
Also, the formula is pretty unrealistic for 1500m athletes. Too fast 1500m prediction over a too slow 400m.
I myself ran 400m in 52s, then 800m in 1:54 and 1500m in 3:56. As you can see, the formula works well for my 800m time, but no way it works for the 1500m. I also now plenty of runners with similar times.
That's why I believe, that Semenya could run 1:51 - 1:52 now and 1:49 with training harder and losing body fat.