Timothy Cheruiyot runs 3:29 FTW in Paris!!

What's kind of stupid is calling the "pre-1990" reference "presumably clean controls". I did not presume pre-1990 to be clean, or a control. What's also kind of stupid is thinking excluding Aouita would change the analysis. Let's do the exercise. If we change the pre-1990 reference from 13:02.08 to 13:03.6: With respect to quantity, we can now include 10 more East Africans, 2 more Moroccans, and 4 more from "5-continents". The new quantity numbers go from 91, 13, and 8, respectively, to 101, 15, and 12, respectively. By lowering the quality standard, all the quantities predictably increase, with East Africans benefiting the most. We still have East Africa far outnumbering everyone else, and North Africans outnumbering "5-continents" albeit by a smaller margin, leading to all the same conclusions. The big win is now we can say one more Spaniard "Garcia" finally made "the top", but also 3 US-based and tested athletes post-ABP. With respect to quality, the top-5 average remains unchanged, but when compared to the new inferior reference, the relative quality increases slightly, each by 0.12 percentage points: The new quality numbers go from 2.57%, 1.54%, and 0.77%, respectively, to 2.69%, 1.66%, and 0.89%, respectively. We still have East Africa significantly faster than North Africans who are significantly faster than "5-continents" by about the same amounts, leading to all the same conclusions. Eliminating Aouita, for clearly subjective reasons, changes the numbers slightly, but still leads to the same observations: 1) East Africans dominate by far in both quantity and quality 2) North Africans slightly outnumber "5 continents", but with significantly superior quality 3) very few non-Africans progressing by very little. In the final result, including or excluding Aouita changes nothing in the analysis. It still leads to the same observations about non-Africans representing 85% of the population for nearly three decades: "so few by so little".

Doped to the Max wrote:

Yep...that was kind of stupid to include a highly suspicious guy like Aouita in your presumably clean controls. He performances should be put in a separate category with the culture of doping Morrocans, and his times could be compared with that of his future comrades.

He posted the fastest times in 3 out of the 6 events you looked at (1500/3000/5000) and 4th fastest in 10,000. Have you recalculated all the times booting out Aouita and moving everyone up one spot and adding a new 5th time? I only did one, the 5, and the average went up from 13:02.08 to 13:03.6. Haven't have time to do the others to ascertain if there's more of change.

I should remind you that, according to my criteria of selecting by country of origin, I counted Bezabeh as Ethiopian. And the blood was still in the bag. But you are right, by lowering the standards about what I considered a "top time" for this analysis, this allows EPO-specialist Garcia to be the first and only native Spaniard to be considered a "top" athlete in the 5000m, an event thought to benefit greatly from EPO. Garcia, the 121st fastest 5000m runner of all time, out of 131 "top athletes", behind 94 East Africans, behind 15 North Africans, behind 10 athletes from "5 continents". For comparison, Dave Moorcroft comes in at 101 with his 1982 performance. This was one of your best examples of Spain, a showcase for EPO abuse, replicating the success of the Africans, and all the Spanish doping rings, embarrassing me by showing everyone my cluelessness. Spain. The whole nation. EPO. Doping rings. EPO-era. 28 years. Replicating African success. Not as good as a 1982 Moorcroft, himself outside the top-100. Not bad. Not bad at all.

Doped to the Max wrote:

Going with the 5, Blood bag Bezabeh (12:57) & EPO-specialist Alberto Garcia (13:02.54) beat your top 5 average presumably clean control of 13:03.6. No bad for a country where most of the aerobic talent goes for cycling. ?

But I thought your problem was the uncertainty of 1988 and 1989 being tainted by EPO. What does 1991 on and OOC testing have to do with a hard and unnatural line cutoff of 1990?

Subway Surfers wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

The big drop in times came much later, in the mid-90s.

But every year from 1991 times dropped on the previous years unreal performances. As you said OOC testing for epo came standard in 2002, so many of the epo cheaters switched to the roads, and down came the marathon record.

I wish everyone would please stop saying nonsense like " you are (or were) supposed to be coach in the UK, aren't you?" I have absolutely no connection to the UK. I get tired of talking about what people guess I am supposed to be -- because everyone seems to be so bad at it, using a stretched logic, and/or they have short memories. In the 1980s, Kenya was dominating in World Cross Country, but lacked the organization to perform consistently on the track. "hard" was not my word, and is not the best one, but there was a lack of professional focus on properly training for track. Aouita is not Kenyan, so didn't suffer from the same lack of organization at the national level.

This is very weird wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

I've already answered this:

"We have to look at other things like inherent talent and high motivation and organized training and high altitude and low bodyweight."

I understand the performance statistic just fine. From performance statistics, we can make performance conclusions, not doping conclusions.

Before 1989, Kenya was "not training hard enough back then", for the 1500m on the track.

What do you mean they weren't training hard enough for 1500? Give some specifics - you are (or were) supposed to be coach in the UK, aren't you? What then...the Kenyans didn't have any competent coaches back then? So what about someone like Aouita, a sub-3:30 guy...he was training hard enough for the 15?

Yeah...I know about your criteria. Bezabeh has Spanish citizenship, holds the Spanish NR in the 5, and was a member of Galgo. Technically he would be Ethiopian-Spaniard. And what about Baala? You claim him in the North African bunch, but yet he was born in France - so he's 1st gen French. I agree with Morrocan transplants to Bahrain, Belgium, etc.,but a 1st gen Frenchman? (did Baala have any ties to Algeria or was training exclusively in France, unlike Ramzi who trained about half the time with his buds in Morroco.

...and the rEPO was still in the syringes. LOL. Please...you sound like you're defending dopers. I should remind you that Blood bag Bezebeth was banned for 2 yrs for a doping violation for his involvement in Galgo. Translation for you: Involvment = participation.

Okay...lets a talk a little bit about Garcia and a point that needs to be made to you. Garcia, who tested positive IC at World XC championships in 03, has 5000 PB of 13:02.54 ran in 01. He had a major spike in improvement from 13:31 in 96 to 13:04 in 98 (~3.3%). *Post-ban* he could only muster a 13:30 (06) and 13:20 (08) before retiring, far from his PB. Assuming the 13:20 might be clean (but he could have also doped again) he still would have improved 2%.

He's also grabbed a couple of golds along the way (EAC 5000 & EAXC Championships). If Moorcraft's 13:00 flat is clean (no reason to believe it's not), and that's his maximum physiological ability, then Garcia at his natural physiological ability of 13:30 - 13:20 was able to dope up to 13:02 - almost to Moorcraft's level (and Garcia ran faster than your pre-90s controls). Garcia's 13:02 would now be competitive with Moorcraft in a race (and with medals & titles at stake...anything can happen). This is the concept of a less talented athlete leveling the playing field against better talented

game changer for many dopers. Learn it...understand it.

And this is where you erred in your analysis. It's clear now that your motive and the impetus of your study was to try & disprove the efficacy of rEPO/blood doping with endurance athletes. For one, you falsely assume all elites have the same talent level and those that were caught or highly suspected of doping are all going to get the same response, i.e. "one-size-fits-all." Do you understand the disparity of the talent level with elites? For example, on the 5000m all-time site, the list goes all the way from the WR record of 12:37 to 7,234 entries down to the last & slowest time of 13:29.99. That's 7,234 times within the spectrum of 13:29 to 12:37. Why aren't the bottom 25% or so of the athletes not running sub-13? If they're all elites (isn't 13:29 considered elite? ?) why aren't they all running sub-13? Could talent disparity have anything to do with it? (who would have thought. Lol).

You must think every EPO user/blood doper is a potential WR holder, and when they don't run faster than your pre-90s averages, you give another ah-ha moment that EPO/blood doping doesn't work. I would suggest looking at individual improvement from confirmed EPO positives cases/ABP sanctions or highly-suspected cases to get an idea of what a doper can get from O2-vector doping. I gave you 2 examples up thread with 1500m runner's Chouki & Shaween (EPO ban/ABP sanction), who both improved 1.4% in one year. (Chouki made the finals of some WC events that maybe he had no business being in without doping). Though neither made your pre-90s cut-off, their improvement is statistically significant.

It's not all about running the very fastest times in measuring the efficacy of PED use.

I considered ethnic heritage, not citizenship. It is not the issuer of your passport that decides your running potential.

You can be banned for possession and for attempt. Sure, Bezabeh was caught with a bag of his own extracted blood, and served a two-year ban. But you are trying to suggest that his best time was partly caused by infusing the blood -- something which requires a showing that he infused blood, rather than proof of extracted blood, and an inference of infusion, and a ban for attempt.

I'm a bit confused about why you feel the need to continue talking about Garcia. We were talking about "replicating the success" of the Africans, and you gave Garcia as a good example. A 13:20 runner running 13:02 is not a very good example of "replicating the success" of the Africans. And after your African-Spaniard example, Garcia is the best example you could come up with, in all of Spain, a nation reknowned for abusing EPO, over the entire EPO-era. Honestly, you thought I should be embarrassed, but I'm only embarrassed for you. The goal of racing isn't to beat the runners of the 1980s.

You continue to make the same misunderstandings. You want my analysis to be about individual efficacy so you can talk about that and say I'm wrong. If you want to analyze that -- you should do it. My analysis quantified changes in best performances since 1990 for various groups as a whole, and the purpose was to discuss the differences, or in this case, the lack thereof. To show efficacy of any O2-vector intervention, I would need both a best doped time and a best clean time. Since I only took one performance for each athlete, and I have no way of knowing if that is a doped or clean performance, I simply don't have the data to show or disprove efficacy of rEPO/blood doping with endurance athletes. The criteria I chose makes it impossible to look at individual improvments. Clearly your conclusion is wrong: the impetus of my study was NOT to try & disprove the efficacy of rEPO/blood doping with endurance athletes.

All these arguments about talent levels, and high responders, and WR holder ability apply to both pre-1990 and post-1990 eras. Presumably both of these groups consist only of highly talented runners. The point was to compare the best of each era to each other, to quantify progress at the top. I wasn't interested in every EPO user, or necessarily any EPO user. I was interested in the best performers of an era, for different groups. If the best EPO user failed to make top-112, I did not find that good enough to be included in a discussion meant to be about "top" runners.

ex-runner wrote:

give it up 'ex' runner wrote:

I'd never say 'imbecile', nor 'jest' (I'm not 50) and I always use my own handle.

Why wouldn't I? Ex-runner is perfectly anonymous.

ex-runner is English and a former National Elite runner.

I am not English, and at best I was a decent regional runner.

PS: ex-runner, I used those words because they are used by Coevett. I don't think I had ever typed "imbecile", nor "jest" before.

give it up "ex" runner wrote:

ex-runner wrote:

I'd never say 'imbecile', nor 'jest' (I'm not 50) and I always use my own handle.

Why wouldn't I? Ex-runner is perfectly anonymous.

So I posted to "Nips and tatties" and "ex runner" replies, immediately! And "ex runner" informs us that he lives in the UK which it is currently 2:22 AM on a Monday morning!!! And there are currently no major world events on. So "ex runner" the dopey idiot just outed himself as "Nips and tatties." Go to sleep before you post your home address.

Shut up, Subway S A.

You outed yourself now with the "dopey idiot" and with saying I am someone else.

First you said I was El Keniano, now ex-runner.

You may be in your 50s but you have the brain of a child.

What a terrible recovery wrote:

Coevett wrote:

No, it's you who can't read or grasp arguments.

If a white guy called Seb could run 3:29 then yes it's possible that a black Kenyan guy called Tim could run 3:29 clean. It's also possible that a Chinese yellow guy called Wang could run 3:29 clean. It's also possible an AfroAmerican called Leroy could run 3:29 clean.

It's also possible that a Black Kenyan called Asbel could run 3;29 clean, but it doesn't mean it happened.

My argument isn't based on white people being superior to Kenyans. It's based on the number of busts, the corruption and doping culture, the lack of testing standards and the easily available EPO etc.

Ex runner replied for nipp(le)s and tits at 2:20 AM, just ignore him. He's like a kitten chasing his tail.

Go away manchild SSA.

Coevett wrote:

ex-runner wrote:

If you believe Coe, Cram and Jakob Ingerbrigtsen have shown that it's possible to do these unbelievable tests whilst clean then it's by definition possible for the Africans also.

Your logic is hopeless.

You are hopeless.

His logic is just that - logic.

Funny how you fail to reply to posts that 100% prove you are wrong :)

You are a manchild, it seems, like SSA :)

I wish people like you, who "supposedly" love the sport, would do something positive to promote it.

All you do is promote racism. :(

Give it a break ex-runner, you invented another troll-name just to come and defend you, calling everyone a "dopey idiot" that you disagree with. Just pathetic, ridiculous. Grow up.

You're either a UK student high on recreational drugs, a garbage man or a house surgeon. But your knowledge of medicine is so low that can be ruled out. Time to go and get a job, time to get out of mommies basement.

"Why don't you just stop posting?" Harden-up snowflake.

Again just a Happy coincidence that

Irish middle distance, had its peak

at same time as British .

Although that bit slower maybe

Due to lack of expertise in blood doping

Happy coincidence

Important that note fact

The peak of 10k interest was when

Endurance doping had its .

For obvious reasons. Records etc

But never used to be like that

And now back to like was before .

Naturally to long and can't keep

People's attention ,why never was

that popular at meets .

Before someone mentions ,

Bekele was peak epo , with micera .

Considering all other things a lot

Less variable and somewhat constant

Father time has been one of key

Components to exposing dopers. .

And all old records have it. , as

do key players in British middle distance

And other countries Kenya etc

Even though time passed a lot less

For some events and still progressing

As still doping

But passage of time is outing dopers

And how was done is left to debate

But fact unnatural means is obvious.

And for me always was the same

Power brokers in control no matter

What country in Anglo american sphere

aduck2022 wrote:

Again just a Happy coincidence that

Irish middle distance, had its peak

at same time as British .

Although that bit slower maybe

Due to lack of expertise in blood doping

Happy coincidence

If only you could learn to rhyme and scan, your posts would be truly epic. Nobody would care whether you had any argument, they would just be blown away by your poetry. It would be like the word of God speaking to us.

I don't understand about your point regarding Irish middle distance peaking at the same time as GB in the 80s. First of all, it doesn't appear true, given that Marcus O'Sullivan ran faster (but nothing suspiciously faster) in the 90s. 'A bit slower'. You'd expect a country of 4 million to be a 'bit slower' than their neighbour of 50 million.

If their rise and peak did coincide it was likely due to the same factors but not because Brits and Irish were dopers. More likely the opposite. Most European countries declined when the EPO era came along, and the only countries that improved were those that have a reputation for doping and busts (such as Spain).

Too funny...?

nipples and tities wrote:

Give it a break ex-runner, you invented another troll-name just to come and defend you, calling everyone a "dopey idiot" that you disagree with. Just pathetic, ridiculous. Grow up.

You are so embarrassing

At least Coevett is using the same registered name to continue his arguments with me and stand behind them.

You anonymous trolls that just change your handle to appear as multiple people all supporting your point, or to disappear as soon as you lose the argument; just embarrassing.

once again this point needs to be driven home .

Father time has been one of key

Components to exposing dopers. .

And how was done is left to debate

ex-runner wrote:

nipples and tities wrote:

Give it a break ex-runner, you invented another troll-name just to come and defend you, calling everyone a "dopey idiot" that you disagree with. Just pathetic, ridiculous. Grow up.

You are so embarrassing

At least Coevett is using the same registered name to continue his arguments with me and stand behind them.

You anonymous trolls that just change your handle to appear as multiple people all supporting your point, or to disappear as soon as you lose the argument; just embarrassing.

That's Subway Whatever.

He has stopped writing meaningful posts (he had some good ones) and yes, he has just been embarrassing himself lately.