Timothy Cheruiyot runs 3:29 FTW in Paris!!

Thanks for the timeline and info. I was aware of most of the dates, but not all the specifics, so thanks.

Regardless of the EPO and ABP, I was just talking in general terms re peds. Even if we look at just steroids, those athletes competing for the UK were subject to far more testing and going back much further in time than those athletes in Kenya and Morocco.

If we look at EPO since the ABP in 2009, there are far more Moroccan positives than UK ones, which would at least suggest that the practice was more common place in Morocco.

And the fact there have been so many Kenyans caught taking peds in the last 2 years would also suggest that there was likely a history of drug taking during the times when testing was minimal.

Coevett wrote:

Stop wrote:

At this point you should just leave the sport. You are so focused on your Kenyan doping thoughts that you cannot appreciate other stuff. Nothings gonna change from the current state. Kenyans will continue to be the major force in distance running, with or without drugs. Just stop.

Lol, yet ex-runner has admitted being a British championship runner and doper, and you think I should 'leave the sport' rather than him.

Kenya will continue to dominate to an extent until such time as they finally get suspended, but with increasingly regular busts, only a few hardcore SJW doping apologists here like you will continue to take athletics seriously anymore.

Where did I show actions of being a SJW? I merely said that they will continue to be the major force because

A: if they are all not doping (unlikely though there are undoubtedly some clean Kenyan world class athletes.) then they are already better than everyone else.

B: if they mostly are doping (once again an unlikely scenario with modern testing) then some will get banned, but the clean will not get popped and will continue to be the worlds best

C: another unlikely situation, some are already positive and the IAAF knows, but will do nothing, which means that everyone else is pretty much screwed.

Situation B is the most likely to go in your favor, but even if the unthinkable happens and Kenya is banned, other countries will take their place at the top. Based on current times, Britain will not be a factor for a while in distance running other than Laura Muir, with or without Kenya’s participation.

Joplas wrote:

Subway Surfers wrote:

Ha ha ha,? this is comedy gold, too funny, the GDR had more anti-doping infrastructure than the NCAA (No Clean Athletes Allowed). The two 800m runners you mention are perhaps the two most suspicious male athletes across all of t&f.

One of them is running in the Diamond League not in the NCAA. So if he is cheating and getting away with it then so are all America pro runners.

And it could be that some American runners may have gotten away with doping. Ever look at the FB leaked WADA document from 2016?

Jager, Rupp, Puskedra all listed as "likely doping" with Jager leading the way with the highest priority rating (+++++) of the three.

Keep in mind the list of runners on the leaked document are only the ones who tripped their passport worthy of increased aggressive target testing. But unless you believe in a 100% detection rate, increased target testing doesn't mean you'll catch everyone who may be doping.

And smaller amounts/lower dosing of various PEDs will keep a dopers #'s under threshold parameters never triggering a flag in the first place (i.e. Poistagova paradigm)

-Armstrong actually failed his 1999 test for epo but it was covered up.

-many national bodies started OOC epo as soon they had a method of detection.

- no blood lab on the African continent so Africans are subsequently tested in blood far less.

-2009 maybe the starting point for the ABP but it is a form of trend analysis that takes longer than a year get a better picture.

-Jeptoo, Sumgong, Jebet, and Kiprop were all epo fails.

Joplas wrote:

Subway Surfers wrote:

Ha ha ha,? this is comedy gold, too funny, the GDR had more anti-doping infrastructure than the NCAA (No Clean Athletes Allowed). The two 800m runners you mention are perhaps the two most suspicious male athletes across all of t&f.

One of them is running in the Diamond League not in the NCAA. So if he is cheating and getting away with it then so are all America pro runners.

Who's responsible for testing him? America or Kenya? WADA does fill the void in some circumstances but that is like four times in the course of a calendar year if you are not wining major medals, wow.

PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE

2018 1:45.16 Eugene, OR (USA) 25 MAY 2018

2017 1:43.10 Monaco (MON) 21 JUL 2017

2016 1:46.94 Nairobi (KEN) 28 MAY 2016

Guess which season he was an NCAA athlete? Where was he before 2016 (keep in mind he was 'born' in 1995)? He could only manage 1:46.08 in London two weeks later, why were so many athletes so scared to run fast in London (Ruth Jebet immediately springs to mind)? Could it be the advanced testing equipment? Many of the breakthrough stars of 2017 were barely tested by USADA, if all, while poor Ritz is getting tested left, right and center/centre. How many athletes in their (probably mid) 20s come from absolutely nowhere and run mid-44s for 400m in a season? If that isn't a doping red flag then I'll throw in the towel right now.

I'm sure you think that this is somehow a relevant contribution, but I don't see the relevance. None of your comments seem connected to Deanouk's OOC testing timeline with UK, Morocco, and Kenya. Just the same: - Armstrong's 1999 failed EPO tests were not covered up, but made public by L'Equipe directly after testing was complete -- that's how we know about them. The battle between WADA and UCI was on full public display -- the opposite of covered up. They were eventually used against Armstrong, as we learned in USADA's Reasoned Decision. - Interesting. Who are these many national bodies? How many is many? Starting in May 2002, "The IAAF (was) the first international sports federation to test for EPO and related substances out of competition, all year round, and on an unannounced basis." - I can only repeat, the difference in OOC blood testing only became relevant in 2009, and it OOC blood testing does not seem to be a primary source of sanctions, outside of Kenya, even when counting the ABP. - Four is not "dozens". They were all URINE EPO fails. In some cases, blood tests helped extend the sanction.

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

-Armstrong actually failed his 1999 test for epo but it was covered up.

-many national bodies started OOC epo as soon they had a method of detection.

- no blood lab on the African continent so Africans are subsequently tested in blood far less.

-2009 maybe the starting point for the ABP but it is a form of trend analysis that takes longer than a year get a better picture.

-Jeptoo, Sumgong, Jebet, and Kiprop were all epo fails.

You are welcome. You seem to also place a great deal of weight on testing, and busts, as something representative of high performance. If you have followed any of my posts, I have long questioned the correlation between doping, and doping busts, and performance at the top. Doping statistics measures how many people doped, and got caught, and not necessarily how many succeeded because of doping. I'm glad you are inclined to look at FACTS, and common sense, logic and probability. When the 2016 ADRVs report came out, I noted the following: The countries with the most "bagged" athletes are: Russia (30), India (21), Morocco (14), and USA (11), followed by France (9), Saudi Arabia (9), Romania (9), Italy (8). Kenya has 7, and Ethiopia has 5, Netherlands has 1, and UK has 0. For all of this talk about "lack of testing" in East Africa, the best source by far for ADRVs remains in-competition urine tests: - 107 out of 205 ADRVs were from in-competition urine tests - 44 are from OOC urine tests - 4 are from in-competion blood tests - 3 are from OOC blood tests - 47 are non-Analytical ADRVs (breaking other rules, including ABP; there were 25 ABP violations across all WADA sports, and of Russia's 30 ADRVs, 21 were non-analytical) If there was a high correlation between doping busts and superior performance, shouldn't we expect to see Russia and India topping the performance lists? Instead we see: - In a 28 year timespan, no Russian men outperforming a 1990 benchmark in six distance events ranging from 1500m to the marathon. - Only about a dozen Russian women, in 4 events. - I don't recall any Indian men or women. - One from Saudi Arabia. - For all these Moroccan ABP busts, the only performers of note, post-2009 are Laalou, Iguider, and El Bakkali. - Pre ABP we find about two dozen Moroccan men, and 4 women. - Spain has a reputation for EPO busts, but only 6 Spanish performers of note, before ABP, and none after ABP, except in 2010, Spanish-Ethiopian Bezabeh was caught with a blood bag. - While a couple dozen successful Moroccans sounds impressive, the same list produces about 450 East Africans: about 10 times as many North Africans and 15 times as many non-Africans (which includes Russia and India). So if we go strictly by observations, we see the nations topping the doping list are not producing that many impressive performances, and are not the same nations topping the performance list.

Deanouk wrote:

Thanks for the timeline and info. I was aware of most of the dates, but not all the specifics, so thanks.

Regardless of the EPO and ABP, I was just talking in general terms re peds. Even if we look at just steroids, those athletes competing for the UK were subject to far more testing and going back much further in time than those athletes in Kenya and Morocco.

If we look at EPO since the ABP in 2009, there are far more Moroccan positives than UK ones, which would at least suggest that the practice was more common place in Morocco.

And the fact there have been so many Kenyans caught taking peds in the last 2 years would also suggest that there was likely a history of drug taking during the times when testing was minimal.

The EPO A positive wasn't covered up but the B sample might have been. The 1999 samples were tested in 2005 to help scientists improve their detection methods. Six (6) of Armstrong's samples were glowing with EPO but supposedly there were no B samples available for further testing that could have resulted in an official doping positive & punitive action. Go figure...his A samples are available for testing 6 yrs later but no B samples? Also, he had four corticosteroid positives during tbe Tour that were conveniently backdated with a TUE.

I didn't, so he can't.

To put it simply, if I attacked Coe then I attacked Aouita. If I defended Coe then I defended Aouita.

It is not possible that I attacked Coe and defended Aouita.

I pointed out how they both lived in Italy or visited Italy after Coevett said Italy was the only place to dope at the time (ridiculous statement). I don't care for the implications, because there are none. He is the one drawing the conclusions in his head. Either Italy means something, or it was a pointlet statement. That's up to him.

[quote]rekrunner wrote:

You are welcome.

You seem to also place a great deal of weight on testing, and busts, as something representative of high performance.

If you have followed any of my posts, I have long questioned the correlation between doping, and doping busts, and performance at the top.

Doping statistics measures how many people doped, and got caught, and not necessarily how many succeeded because of doping.

I'm glad you are inclined to look at FACTS, and common sense, logic and probability.

When the 2016 ADRVs report came out, I noted the following:

The countries with the most "bagged" athletes are: Russia (30), India (21), Morocco (14), and USA (11), followed by France (9), Saudi Arabia (9), Romania (9), Italy (8). Kenya has 7, and Ethiopia has 5, Netherlands has 1, and UK has 0.

For all of this talk about "lack of testing" in East Africa, the best source by far for ADRVs remains in-competition urine tests:

- 107 out of 205 ADRVs were from in-competition urine tests

- 44 are from OOC urine tests

- 4 are from in-competion blood tests

- 3 are from OOC blood tests

- 47 are non-Analytical ADRVs (breaking other rules, including ABP; there were 25 ABP violations across all WADA sports, and of Russia's 30 ADRVs, 21 were non-analytical)

If there was a high correlation between doping busts and superior performance, shouldn't we expect to see Russia and India topping the performance lists? Instead we see:

- In a 28 year timespan, no Russian men outperforming a 1990 benchmark in six distance events ranging from 1500m to the marathon.

- Only about a dozen Russian women, in 4 events.

- I don't recall any Indian men or women.

- One from Saudi Arabia.

- For all these Moroccan ABP busts, the only performers of note, post-2009 are Laalou, Iguider, and El Bakkali.

- Pre ABP we find about two dozen Moroccan men, and 4 women.

- Spain has a reputation for EPO busts, but only 6 Spanish performers of note, before ABP, and none after ABP, except in 2010, Spanish-Ethiopian Bezabeh was caught with a blood bag.

- While a couple dozen successful Moroccans sounds impressive, the same list produces about 450 East Africans: about 10 times as many North Africans and 15 times as many non-Africans (which includes Russia and India).

So if we go strictly by observations, we see the nations topping the doping list are not producing that many impressive performances, and are not the same nations topping the performance list.[quote]Unless you believe in a 100% detection rate for anti-doping, there's isn't going to be a high correlation between doping busts and WR record times (essentially you believe every EPO user is a potential WR holder, hence your "superior performance" montra).

High number of doping busts, ABP sanctions, doping rings, etc. with particular nations indicates to me widespread PED use (who would have thought. Lol). Since a doper has got to be pretty careless to get caught (e.g. Ramzi's transition to a long glowing CERA) or plain reckless in their doping (e.g., Russian runners & race walkers blowing the lids off their passports with high off-scores), or risk getting busted in a doping ring (e.g. Operation Galgo), the sheer numbers of dopers with these doping culture nations are eventually going to yield drug positives, ABP sanctions & scandals.

What about superior performances of runners from some of these nations with widespread doping who weren't busted? There's a certain WR holder from Morroco who ran most of his times and set the WR during EPO time period where one could dope with impunity. How about Aouita who ran circles in 3 disciplines in your pre-90 clean controls? There's reasonable suspicion that he's doper. He posted the fastest pre-90 times in 15, 3 & 5, and you used his times in the top 5 averages of your clean control group to match against the EPO-era widespread use group of the post-90s. Same with Spain (doping rings galore and quite a few positives) where you have the fastest non-African 15 ran in the late 90s and WC marathon domination also in the 90s. I know; irrelevant because Spain underperformed by not running near WR record times...got it.

A further word on EPO doping positives, I like to use them to estimate a dopers improvement from their base. Also, if the doper returned to competition after their ban, you can compare those times with their times pre-positive (assuming they didn't dope again. Lol.). Of course a certain percentage improvement over base means nothing to you unless they happen to run a super fast time in doing so. It's all about a raw fast time for you - percentage improvement, Olympic/WC medals won, NRs set, etc., should be considered when estimating the effectiveness of a PED(s) on an individual basis.

While those times look suspicious, look at Korir’s 800m races this year. The two outdoor races were both tactical, he would probably run 1:42 in a fast one. He also ran a 1:44 indoors which is only the third fastest performer ever. Not attacking you just providing facts about Korir.

So, Korir is clean & green, in your opinion?

It's interesting to me that you state this. If you don't know, why do you act like you do know? And in doing so, act like you know he isn't tested and therefore you know he is doping?

You simply don't know. Others know. Others know that USADA tests athletes of all nationalities living in the US. WADA tests some athletes. The IAAF organises some tests. When an athlete competes in a European country that country will have testing. Testers will spring on you at your hotel anytime, anywhere in the world. Basically a Kenyan living in the US is subject to the same controls as Clayton Murphy. Far more legitimate than an American living in Kenya.

But you don't know. So why do you act like you do? He may well be doping, but being a Kenyan in this case doesn't change that probability in the slightest.

ex-runner wrote:

It's interesting to me that you state this. If you don't know, why do you act like you do know? And in doing so, act like you know he isn't tested and therefore you know he is doping?

You simply don't know. So why do you act like you do?

I think you missed all the question marks in the post. You're either pissed (as in drunk) or not too bright.

The causation (not just correlation) of fast times from doping is something taken for granted by most everyone in all of these threads.

In fact, fast times are often assumed to be achievable only through doping.

But when we look at the data, the doping statistics and the performances, you just admitted that there isn’t going to be a high correlation, because detection is not 100%.

So any strong correlation, let alone causation, becomes an assumption without any strong basis in historical data. It’s more “belief”, rather than established fact.

If you start out with a different assumption, you draw very different conclusions from the same historical data, without leading to any contradictions.

Recall I didn’t pick WR times, but times slower than the 1990 WR.

I don’t really find widespread doping, in and of itself, that interesting, unless it can be correlated to superior performances, something you admitted is not going to happen.

We have to fall back on the assumption that the widespread doping is interesting because it causes fast performances, despite any strong basis in historical data.

Is there “reasonable” suspicion for El G, and Aouita? There might be if we could draw a high correlation between doping and WR holder performances. But you admitted that we can’t. This is an assumption. A belief. Your “reasons” for suspicion always falls back on this assumption, taken for granted, but without strong basis in historical data. With a different assumption, and with all the historical data, it becomes reasonable to suspect that El G and Aouita achieved their best performances without doping.

Note, the 1980s wasn't meant to be a "clean" control, but representative of the best from "testosterone and blood transfusion era" to see how, if at all, EPO "changed the game".

Note, I considered that Spain under performed, not because of Cacho’s performance — I considered him fast enough. But it is by virtue of the fact that he was the sole Spaniard in the 1500m. from a nation with a deep doping culture. The more you hype Spain’s widespread doping culture, the bigger the anomaly is that they only produced one male athlete in the 1500m, and six male athletes in total, across six distance running events, able to surpass a less than 1990 WR benchmark.

It means nothing because I don’t understand what your chosen “base” represents. It’s not that individual effectiveness is not interesting to me. It’s just that I felt it impossible to measure, and decided to look at the evolution of top performances, something I could measure.

Everyone's looking for an edge wrote:

Context required wrote:

While those times look suspicious, look at Korir’s 800m races this year. The two outdoor races were both tactical, he would probably run 1:42 in a fast one. He also ran a 1:44 indoors which is only the third fastest performer ever. Not attacking you just providing facts about Korir.

So, Korir is clean & green, in your opinion?

Nothing about Korir is suspicious. No red flags. You are just letting your imagination run wild.

Korir would have run 1:43 in Eugene had he not been tripped.

Observantt wrote:

Everyone's looking for an edge wrote:

So, Korir is clean & green, in your opinion?

Nothing about Korir is suspicious. No red flags. You are just letting your imagination run wild.

Korir would have run 1:43 in Eugene had he not been tripped.

Then why don't you tell us what kind of red flags we would need to see to suspect doping?

Getting back to the subject in question, you'll note that Big Tim and his sidekick are not racing in Monaco. Rumor of a WR attempt in Monaco is the supposed reason:

https://rabat.diamondleague.com/en/programme-results-rabat/?eventId=58328c5b-1bc9-4170-821a-79f2c2eb3e37&eventStart=2018-07-13T20%3A21%3A00%2B00%3A00&tx_diamondrace_diamondleaguestatistics%5Baction%5D=showEntries&tx_diamondrace_diamondleaguestatistics%5Bcontroller%5D=DiamondLeagueStatistics&cHash=089bd1c115cd84869cf3503676fe06f3

Papas Fritas wrote:

Getting back to the subject in question, you'll note that Big Tim and his sidekick are not racing in Monaco. Rumor of a WR attempt in Monaco is the supposed reason:

https://rabat.diamondleague.com/en/programme-results-rabat/?eventId=58328c5b-1bc9-4170-821a-79f2c2eb3e37&eventStart=2018-07-13T20%3A21%3A00%2B00%3A00&tx_diamondrace_diamondleaguestatistics%5Baction%5D=showEntries&tx_diamondrace_diamondleaguestatistics%5Bcontroller%5D=DiamondLeagueStatistics&cHash=089bd1c115cd84869cf3503676fe06f3

*that should read: not racing in Rabat