Am I ready for a sub-3 marathon?

Just to clarify, my weekly mileage for the past 10 weeks has been 50mpw

There are probably at least a dozen threads on this subject. Search them.

You have the speed but need to improve your endurance. Your half time is too slow. You should be running 1:23 to 1:24. With higher mileage, you can do it. But you’re not there yet.

no way, you're slow sorry

Use the search function. wrote:

You have the speed but need to improve your endurance. Your half time is too slow. You should be running 1:23 to 1:24. With higher mileage, you can do it. But you’re not there yet.

^^ +1 This. ^^

I think you're close. When is the marathon? Are you still improving?

Your times are faster than mine from a year ago, and I felt I had a legitimate shot at 3 hours until injuries derailed my training the last few months. I still managed 3:07. My weekly mileage was about the same as yours (45-50) until the injuries worsened.

My race times last year were 18:58 (5K), 59:59 (15K), 1:28 half marathon.

By comparison, the last time I went sub-3 was 15 years ago while still in my 40s (2:56:03). My race times that year were 17:10 (5K), 36:26 (10K), 1:22 half marathon.

But I think I under-performed in the marathon that year -- ran way too conservatively. Average mileage was about 42 mpw, peaking at 60.

I ran a sub 3 off of a 1:28:42 half 2 months out from a 2:59:44. If you are better ast he distance gets larger u should be good. Don't listen to the idiots.

TINCEL wrote:

I ran a sub 3 off of a 1:28:42 half 2 months out from a 2:59:44. If you are better ast he distance gets larger u should be good. Don't listen to the idiots.

I would guess that most would say your experience is more the exception than the norm. That's why experience/background seems key on these types of threads, but in general with the half time OP posted and the weekly mileage, he probably won't come too close to a sub-3. I'm not saying it's impossible, but more than likely improbable.

InsertNameHere wrote:

TINCEL wrote:

I ran a sub 3 off of a 1:28:42 half 2 months out from a 2:59:44. If you are better ast he distance gets larger u should be good. Don't listen to the idiots.

I would guess that most would say your experience is more the exception than the norm. That's why experience/background seems key on these types of threads, but in general with the half time OP posted and the weekly mileage, he probably won't come too close to a sub-3. I'm not saying it's impossible, but more than likely improbable.

To clarify to the OP, I realize that the PR times are pretty equivalent based on running calculators like McMillan, but if you were to look at what times are "equivalent" to a sub-3 marathon, it seems like you're not quite there yet. Plus, I think most would also say that runners who don't have above-average strength/endurance should be well below those equivalent times for a sub-3 if they want to have a solid chance.

john_seattle wrote:

I recently did a string of time trials / workouts, and wanted to hear from the experts on this forum whether I should bother going for a 3-hour (flat) marathon.

Mile Repeats: 5 X 1 Mile, 400m jogging recovery (3min) @ 6 minute pace

Half: 1:27:20 (solo time trial)

10K: 39:01

5K: 18:49

If I were in that kind of shape, I would consider myself to be in 3:07 to 3:12 shape. You're heading in the right direction, but you're not really that close, in my opinion. You could probably get to sub-3 shape by the fall, but you're not going to break 3 any time soon, I don't think.

You didn't say when your race is. I'm assuming soon? I'd guess if it's in the next month you're knocking on the door but not quite there. If you're planning for a fall race you might be able to make it happen but obviously will have to reevaluate as the race gets closer.

Also 6 minute mile repeats but 3 min recovery jog for 400m? Your recovery jogs were 12:00min/mi pace? I think for marathon training you'd be better off running those repeats closer to 10k or half marathon pace and speeding up the recovery pace than trying to do 5 miles at 5k pace and shuffling through the recoveries. Maybe even add one or two repeats that way.

you're close... how did you feel after that half time trial?

how do 6:45-6:50 miles feel? could you go out on a couple days' notice and knock out 10-12 miles (continuous) @ 6:45 and still be ready for more?

how are your long runs? what kind of pace? doing any fast-finish?

FWIW i broke 3:00 four times after i was 45, when the best i ran in a half was over 1:26

john_seattle wrote:

Mile Repeats: 5 X 1 Mile, 400m jogging recovery (3min) @ 6 minute pace

Half: 1:27:20 (solo time trial)

10K: 39:01

5K: 18:49

No, and I agree 100% with a lot of what was said above me, particularly InstertNameHere. Get your 5k down to sub-18:30, your 10k down to sub-38:30, and run a real half, not a time trial on a course you measured with the GPS on your phone's running app or whatever. Yes there are outliers, but IMO if you're a normal person you're likely going to need to be able to hold about 4:00/km for a HM before you can run sub-3 for the full. That's around 1:25 flat, preferably just under.

You can look at it this way:

sub-1:26 HM = sub-3 full if you are experienced with marathons, run a great race, conditions are great, tailwind, luck is with you.

sub-1:25 HM = sub-3 full if you have run at least one marathon before (will help at least), trained well, and run a good race.

sub-1:24 HM = should break 3, but there are no guarantees in the humbling marathon.

sub-1:23 HM = if you don't break 3, something went very wrong or it's a notably challenging course.

john_seattle wrote:

I recently did a string of time trials / workouts, and wanted to hear from the experts on this forum whether I should bother going for a 3-hour (flat) marathon.

Mile Repeats: 5 X 1 Mile, 400m jogging recovery (3min) @ 6 minute pace

Half: 1:27:20 (solo time trial)

10K: 39:01

5K: 18:49

I converted a 38:13 time trial two weeks out to a 2:58 marathon, not fully flat. so based on that, I'd say you have a shot in good conditions (must not be too warm). half time is solid for a time trial.

You are close. Racing a HM in 1:24-1:25 would be a better.

I think HM time x 2 + 10-15 minutes is a reasonable estimate. Obviously the 5 minute gap could be the difference between 2:59 and 3:04.

On sustained high mileage, you are more likely to get closer to the +10 time. On lower miles, more like +15 or even more depending on marathon conditions.

If you can hit 1:24 in the HM and get good marathon conditions, I think you can do it.

Nope. That half time needs to improve.

Just guessing but looks like you're in 3:10 shape on a good day.

john_seattle wrote:

I recently did a string of time trials / workouts, and wanted to hear from the experts on this forum whether I should bother going for a 3-hour (flat) marathon.

Mile Repeats: 5 X 1 Mile, 400m jogging recovery (3min) @ 6 minute pace

Half: 1:27:20 (solo time trial)

10K: 39:01

5K: 18:49

I personally cannot run a 3:00 marathon off of 18:50 5k fitness, more like 17:30 but it may be that you slow down less with distance than I do.

john_seattle wrote:

I recently did a string of time trials / workouts, and wanted to hear from the experts on this forum whether I should bother going for a 3-hour (flat) marathon.

Mile Repeats: 5 X 1 Mile, 400m jogging recovery (3min) @ 6 minute pace

Half: 1:27:20 (solo time trial)

10K: 39:01

5K: 18:49

Sounds to me like sub-3 is your goal if you're asking this question. So are you going to be happy if you go out and run a strong 3:10 and finish thinking about whether or not you were in sub-3 shape?? Just go out at 3hr marathon pace and see how you feel. If you're working too hard, slow down. If you feel good, stick with the pace until 10km to go and see what you have left. Life is short and tomorrow is not guaranteed. Go for it. If you fail, so what...

Use the search function. wrote:

There are probably at least a dozen threads on this subject. Search them.

You have the speed but need to improve your endurance. Your half time is too slow. You should be running 1:23 to 1:24. With higher mileage, you can do it. But you’re not there yet.

"There are probably at least a dozen threads on this subject. Search them. "

There are probably at least a dozen responses like this. Weirdos who don't understand that boards that do not have new posts, whether duplicate or not, cease to exist. Just don't respond if you don't like it.