Pretty early but since track is done why not. Mine (in order):
Teams:
NAU
BYU
Stanford
Portland
Oregon
Individuals:
Grant Fisher
Matt Baxter
Tyler Day
Gilbert Kigen
Joe Klecker
Pretty early but since track is done why not. Mine (in order):
Teams:
NAU
BYU
Stanford
Portland
Oregon
Individuals:
Grant Fisher
Matt Baxter
Tyler Day
Gilbert Kigen
Joe Klecker
I pretty much agree with what you got here, but I believe that Morgan McDonald ought to be back this season for Wisconsin, and with the meet in Madison, I think he should be in the conversation for overall favorite. I also think that Vincent Kiprop probably deserves a mention as a possible top 5 placer as well.
NAU overall.
Top 5:
Kiprop
Baxter
Fisher
Day
Kigen
kid from PA wrote:
NAU overall.
Top 5:
Kiprop
Baxter
Fisher
Day
Kigen
Forgot about McDonald. Hmmm...
Individuals
Amon Kemboi
Gilbert Kigen
Nadeel Wildschutt
Grant Fisher
Tyler Day
Wildschutt and Kemboi are my sleeper picks.
Since I recently registered my username I just thought I would add some authenticity to and background on who I am and where I’m coming from. Let me just say in advance that if you don’t care to read my lengthy introduction then feel free to scroll down for my thoughts on the top teams/rankings.
I ran cross-country and track in high school, was a good 400/800 meter runner in track but comparatively a poor cross country runner. I never thoroughly enjoyed running in high school I would always sike myself out before races and experience uncomfortable worry induced butterflies even days before the competition.
I started out running in high school because a close friend encouraged me to join him; I enjoyed it enough at the beginning. However, after showing some promise in track and field I let my coach’s high expectations and interest in me have a demoralizing and crippling effect instead of using it to motivate and inspire me. It was a poor mindset thing. I was too worried about letting my coach down or not meeting his expectations and the expectations of others on the team. It was a very unhealthy mindset and it took a lot of the fun out of it for me. This mindset was nothing new for me; throughout my youth, I always worried too much about how I was perceived by others. Up until high school I just hadn’t noticed it affecting me in sports.
I graduated from high school eager and relieved to put running behind me, years passed and I ended up attending Southern Utah University in my home state. I remember sometime during my last year of studies picking up a school newspaper and reading an article about Cam Levin’s of SUU highlighting his breaking of the 4-minute mile. Must have been during the indoor track season or perhaps early outdoor. I was intrigued; I had seen him around campus and even talked with him on a few occasions. And with my background in track and field could appreciate the rare feat.
So I started to look up Cam Levins online to follow his season and before I knew it I had discovered a new world I didn’t realize existed, Flotrack, interviews, the ability to view races online. And boy was I fortunate to be introduced to all of this during that amazing season for SUU runner Cam Levins.
Luckily, in those days I believe the Mount Sac and Payton Jordan invitational streams were free so I saw some amazing races. Cam Levins taking down Lawi Lalang in the 5k and running a Canadian qualifying time for the Olympics. Cam Levins taking down Chris Derrick and other pro runners at the Payton Jordan invite 10k, running one of the fastest collegiate times of all time and getting the Olympic standard there as well.
I loved watching interviews from Cam and Chris Derrick there was a bit of a rivalry going on there, Chris ran an amazing 10k as well, yet another collegiate athlete just had to beat him. Obviously, Chris Derrick had the talent to be an NCAA champion and going in probably thought it was definitely his year but this Cam Levins guy came out of nowhere! Anyway there were some intriguing storylines and this runner from my little school was running world class times! Needless to say I was hooked and absorbed in everything happening in the distance events that season. Saw Cam take the 10k 5k double crown as NCAAs putting SUU on the track and field map. Exciting stuff, followed Cam’s season all the way through the Olympics. During that time I found letsrun and was intrigued by the discussion of Cam Levins and other collegiate athletes.
Coming off that season and high I didn’t think that anything else running related (spectating) could ever top the experience I just had, a once in a lifetime type of thing. (Nothing has since) However, that fall I remember casually following Flotrack and reading up on their Cross Country rankings and seeing another local school near the top BYU. Again, I was intrigued I had no idea that BYU had a top 10-caliber cross country team, BYU a university close to where I lived growing up and my first college choice, though I didn’t have a good enough GPA to get in.
So I started following BYU cross country and it was fun to see them excel, there were some intriguing storylines as well such as Portlands dominance in WCC cross country and then BYU coming in and disrupting their 20+ year streak. There were some great conference battles the first few years between BYU and Portland. Portland coming back to avenge their loss to BYU the year after they broke their streak etc..
Anyway it has been a good ride, I have enjoyed following and rooting for Utah based athletes and schools over the years. It’s been fun to see the success of BYU as a team in addition to the success of little ole SUU even cracking the top 25 multiple times in cross country (11th this last year!) with great athletes following in Cam’s footsteps such as Nate Jewkes, Hayden Hawks, Mike Tate, Kasey Knevelbaard. It’s been fun to follow the rise of Utah States Dillon Maggard as well.
Don’t know why I enjoy it so much considering I was sick of it by the end of highschool, maybe it’s because of the success Utah based schools as whole are having ,but also because it’s nice to see athletes thrive and enjoy the sport the way it’s meant to be. The way I should have when I had the privilege to participate in high school.
Top Team Analysis
Now for some thoughts on some of the top teams going into 2018 in no particular order of who I think will place where. Granted I do not know a lot about incoming transfers, so I will be doing my analysis mostly based on last year’s results. There is bound to be some intriguing teams that I fail to mention, here goes.
NAU – Obviously still a contender, losing just 1 runner from last year’s dominant team. Look for Luis Grijalva to fill in nicely into the top 5 for Andy Trouard. The one question mark I have for this year’s team is Peter Lomong. Can he duplicate his top 10 performance from last year? Looking at his track and field results part of me says no, he just happened to have the race of his life at NCAA’s. On the other hand some runners just excel in Cross Country, Nico Mantanez of BYU comes to mind he never even broke 14:30 in the 5k yet was awesome in cross country with a top 10 finish his senior year. Perhaps Lomong is of a similar breed. Looking forward to seeing what Ryan Raff does with this team.
Portland – Lose a couple seniors in the top 5, but it’s hard to count Portland out after what early in the season last year looked like a down year for them. They came out with a walloping performance at NCAA’s finishing an all time high 2nd place for the historically good program. This after getting swept by BYU in the conference meet. Rob Conner sure knows how to find, develop and peak talent at the right time.
BYU – Lose their top finisher in Clinger, but they have a very solid team coming back. With 3 seniors looking to finish their All American careers on a high note, look for this team to come out swinging. And the addition of Mantz and some breakout performances from a slew of guys in the 3k steeple, this team should have depth in excess, which seems to be the new norm for them. Interesting to note: I haven’t done any in depth analysis but I’ve often thought that if BYU split their team in half they have enough depth that they could field a couple of top 20 teams every year. Also just an aside as a BYU fan it's a lot of fun to see them race so well and consistently throughout the year, been disappointed a couple of times with their performance at nationals however I don't know that I would trade the whole seasons body of work for one kick butt performance at nationals. It just wouldn't be the same as a spectator and fan, its fun to see your team perform at a high level throughout the season as well.
Stanford – In my opinion this is the team to watch out for, a proven low stick in Grant Fisher who based on his recent interviews is rededicating himself to running, along with a couple other top 20 finishers in Ostberg and Fahy coming back. Perhaps Grant can lead a trio of top 10 finishers like NAU had last year. Would be hard for other teams to counter, the question is how good will their 4, and 5 be.
Oregon – Looks like they get everyone back, looking for everyone to make strides this year and with the addition of one of the best high school cross country runners in the country in Brodey Hasty he could potentially bolster their top 5 as well. Oregon is a bit of a sleeper pick for me.
Colorado – Losing two of their top 5 but their top 3 returners are back, looks to be a bit of a rebuilding year but with their history can’t completely count them out, waiting for them to surprise me.
Alabama – Formidable senior trio with 2 top 10 finishers and another All American. Does Alabama have or can they develop a solid 4th and 5th man? Maybe they have some more high profile transfers up their sleeve?
It’s going to be a battle, definitely looking forward to the season!!
If you're gonna include Klecker you should mention his teammate Jon Dressel too
Dressel in nowhere Klecker’s level anymore. Joe just ran 13:30 and dressel hasn’t done anything in over a year due to injury. Not to mention joe has a better track record in championship races
My top 5
Teams:
1. NAU, easily
2. Stanford
3. BYU
4. Oregon
5. Colorado
Sleepers:
1. Iowa State (they got some Okie talent, I gotta support them)
2. Alabama
Individuals:
1. Matthew Baxter
2. Grant Fisher
3. Tyler Day
4. Vincent Kiprop
5. Alex Ostberg
Sleepers:
1. Rory Linkletter
2. Tanner Anderson
what about women?
you didn't specify in the title
Women?! No one cares
Incredible west coast bias in this long winded side track thesis with Alabama thrown in....Alabama...??? Really????
Yes Alabama!!! Program of the year Alabama. Now who has a Biased.
West coast bias wrote:
Incredible west coast bias in this long winded side track thesis with Alabama thrown in....Alabama...??? Really????
Look, 5 out of the top 6 teams came from the West last year. All 5 of those teams bring significant and key contributors back. The lone top 6 team in the east, Arkansas's top 3 runners from last year were seniors. Another top 10 team from the east, Michigan's top 3 contributors from last year were seniors as well. So I don't agree that there is any bias here I'm just examining the top teams from last year and noting the ones that still look strong coming into the next season.
Syracuse is hard to ignore with their history, but losing their top two guys with championship experience including their ace in the hole with Justin Knight is not something the program is likely to make up for without taking a step back in the next year.
I highlighted Alabama because they have 3 returning all Americans two of which are top 10 returners. Any team with the potential for 3 low sticks in a huge meet like NCAA's is going to be a dangerous team. I'm looking to see If they can figure out how to find or develop a couple more guys, make a similar jump like the one they made last year.
That said I did glaze over Iowa State taking a closer look they were only a handful of points behind Oregon last year. Like Oregon, they are a young team and look to be returning everyone of their top 5 contributors. So my bad, assuming some good progression and building off of their experience from last year Iowa State could certainly be in the mix for a podium spot as well.
Look, I find a little analysis expressing some rhyme or reason for the top team picks a lot more interesting then just reading through a list. Ideally the additional analysis should lend itself to some more thoughtful and interesting dialogue/discussion.
Iowa State will have some returners at home this year. They picked up the 20th finisher from last year's race and redshirted some high profile freshmen. They will be in contention for the title.
Agree by adding Iowa State you balance this out. They look like a podium team with Kurgat added. Their biggest question is whether Pollard can return to health and form.
They don’t need Pollard to be top 3 but he is capable of running with Jordan which puts them in contention for the win. I read something about health issues with him so hoping he is 100%.
Thanks for pointing that out, Kurgat was 21st last year, wow another potential low stick for Iowa State. Shaping up to be a very deep field this year in the team race. A minor slip up and a deserving team could be off the podium. At least 7-8 teams definitely capable of putting in a strong performance. Not much room for error.
Alabama men will win it all. Best XC program in NCAA
Roll Tide wrote:
Alabama men will win it all. Best XC program in NCAA
I'm a pretty big bama fan due to family ties but really they just have the best kenyans. Their roster is full of plenty of guys who really just aren't that special.