Unofficial 2018 D3 XC Thread (Official)

At large bid predictions after regionals?

From the Great Lakes region, I predict that both DePauw and Case Western will snag an at large bid. Was a really tight race, and with the west and south regions being so horrible, it opens up the room for 2 at large bids from that region

GLrunner96 wrote:

From the Great Lakes region, I predict that both DePauw and Case Western will snag an at large bid. Was a really tight race, and with the west and south regions being so horrible, it opens up the room for 2 at large bids from that region

Good prediction

Patel was laid out in the medical tent after the race, he was apparently suffering from hypothermia. They were trying to get him warm. Scary stuff.

Food for thought. This is athletic.net's race simulation of nationals (which includes 75 teams, not those who just qualified.)

North Central: 24

Pomona-Pitzer: 263

Lacrosse: 299

Wash U: 310

Otterbein: 312

Wartburg: 401

Calvin: 458

Haverford: 497

Amherst: 501

RPI: 539

How accurate is this? Has anyone done this in years past and how well does it represent?

https://www.athletic.net/CrossCountry/Division/Rank.aspx?DivID=45414&D=8000&S=2018

This is absurdly inaccurate. Courses are different. Weather conditions are different. This shows that North Central is the prohibitive favorite. That’s about it.

ShipYard wrote:

This is absurdly inaccurate. Courses are different. Weather conditions are different. This shows that North Central is the prohibitive favorite. That’s about it.

even though by now most teams have had a "fast course" with "perfect conditions" under their belts?

im at work wrote:

ShipYard wrote:

This is absurdly inaccurate. Courses are different. Weather conditions are different. This shows that North Central is the prohibitive favorite. That’s about it.

even though by now most teams have had a "fast course" with "perfect conditions" under their belts?

Son the past 6 weeks all over the east coast have been a complete mud-bath, they haven't really gotten the chance to run fast yet.

or maybe east coast is slowwww. Pre-natties? Flop

yeah, literally every east coast course has been terrible. so even courses that have the potential to be fast have turned out pretty slow because it's been raining non-stop since august. everything is a mud pit.

South sends 3. thots?

im at work wrote:

Food for thought. This is athletic.net's race simulation of nationals (which includes 75 teams, not those who just qualified.)

North Central: 24

Pomona-Pitzer: 263

Lacrosse: 299

Wash U: 310

Otterbein: 312

Wartburg: 401

Calvin: 458

Haverford: 497

Amherst: 501

RPI: 539

How accurate is this? Has anyone done this in years past and how well does it represent?

https://www.athletic.net/CrossCountry/Division/Rank.aspx?DivID=45414&D=8000&S=2018

Will Otterbein actually beat Calvin by 140 when Calvin beat them by 40 at their regional?

1. NCC

2/3. WUSTL/LAX (toss-up)

4. Haverford

5. RPI

6. Calvin

7. Amherst

8. CMU

9. Pomona

What do you guys think?

Haverford was missing Gearinger, Amherst peaked really well last year, CMU historically runs a little poorer at NCAA's, RPI ran super well at regionals, O'Gara had an off-day for WUSTL this past week

Actually I'll swap Calvin and Amherst

The Starved Elephant wrote:

im at work wrote:

Food for thought. This is athletic.net's race simulation of nationals (which includes 75 teams, not those who just qualified.)

North Central: 24

Pomona-Pitzer: 263

Lacrosse: 299

Wash U: 310

Otterbein: 312

Wartburg: 401

Calvin: 458

Haverford: 497

Amherst: 501

RPI: 539

How accurate is this? Has anyone done this in years past and how well does it represent?

https://www.athletic.net/CrossCountry/Division/Rank.aspx?DivID=45414&D=8000&S=2018

Will Otterbein actually beat Calvin by 140 when Calvin beat them by 40 at their regional?

based on the algorithm yes but based on logic no

im at work wrote:

The Starved Elephant wrote:

Will Otterbein actually beat Calvin by 140 when Calvin beat them by 40 at their regional?

based on the algorithm yes but based on logic no

Here's Otterbein's season PR's:

24:42.2, 25:09.2, 25:10.2, 25:10.7, 25:19.3

Here's Calvins:

25:08.0, 25:16.4, 25:16.8, 25:18.8, 25:25.9

If everyone runs equal to their season PR's then otterbein has the win over Calvin

THERE IS NO WAY CASE WESTERN DESERVES TO BE AT NATIONALS! OUR CORRUPT RULING BODY HAS REALLY SCREWED THE POOCH ON THIS ONE!!

#ROLLDEIS

Based on recent interviews, the south still sucks. Will likely go 30-31-32 in oshkosh, those southern farmers aren't ready to face the weather of the American heartland. I predict the west will also go 28-29, it will be hard for those surfers to run fast after their legs freeze from a lack of leg hair. Shaved legs might work by the palm trees, but where the go-to drink is budwiser those imported-from-guatemala coffee aficionados will have a hard time getting their bald legs going when the race gets down to the nitty gritty.

You have to remove a short 8k otterbein ran in October. That's why it looks so close.