What percentage of the population (both male and female) can run a sub 3 half mile?

It's surprising how tough that is to do after 50 years old.

I'm 59 and I can, but I sub 2:30- which would have been the first 1/2 mile of a 5K at one time- would get me nationally ranked as a 59 year old!

And when I look at the physical condition of most guys in their 40's and 50's I wonder of they could run a step.

It seems so slow and so easy but getting old sucks even when you do everything right.

Everybody can do that.

Are we talking RIGHT NOW or in a certain amount of time, like say 6 months or a year or just at some point in their lifetime?

Right now, NO WAY is it anywhere near the numbers the OP put up.

FazzT wrote:

Men under 40: 35%

Women under 40: 12.5%

Men over 40: 12.5%

Women over 40: 2.5%

You think THIRTY FIVE percent of men under 40 in the US can run two straight 90 second laps on a track? Zero chance of that, truly. Under ten percent can run one 90 second lap, three or four percent can run a sub three minute half mile. Under one percent of women in the US can run that, regardless of age. We're talking the true general population here. Most people honestly can't complete one lap on a track without walking.

Why do people post these questions on letsrun? Is it to make you feel better about yourself because you can do something in your sleep that less than half of everyone else could do, because you feel inadequate in all other measurable areas in life (wealth, job, muscle)?

wondering man wrote:

Why do people post these questions on letsrun? Is it to make you feel better about yourself because you can do something in your sleep that less than half of everyone else could do, because you feel inadequate in all other measurable areas in life (wealth, job, muscle)?

Agreed.

I'm a 48yo male hobby jogger -

I'm about 5"6 145lbs and don't live in the U.S.

I have a torn acl in my right knee (have had it for 30 years, now).

Unlike many LRC posters - I never ran xc and have no (organized sport or major hobby) endurance background. I was a 100/200/400m sprinter for two years in HS - so we did some longer runs to get in shape.

I work as a computer programmer - so that doesn't help me stay in shape.

Since HS I have inconsistently (jogged/)run about 3-5k for an average of about 3Xweek for many years - including many years/months that I didn't run at all. A few months ago my wife left me (and took the kids with her) - I'm guessing I will get unsupportive hate about this on here (if anyone pays attention to this thread) - and so I decided to try to do some speed work and train more seriously (because I suddenly had/have more time on my hands and I enjoy running). It hasn't worked out (yet) - but I did a few sessions of speedwork and sub 90 second laps weren't much of a trick (for comparison sub 70sec sounds very far away and/or would need a much greater commitment). I also was able to run under three minutes for two laps (and could easily do another five meters while staying under three minutes).

In contrast to the negative posters I rather enjoy these types of threads once in a while - though sometimes they just go on too long.

I can't speak about the U.S. population, specifically - I haven't lived there in over 10 years, almost never visit, and don't read about this kind of thing often - but it seems to me that if you took 100 males between 40-50 years old - let's say 1/3 weigh too much for it to be possible, 1/3 aren't athletic or have no endurance, I think of the other 1/3 - maybe 1/3 could do it? 1/9 = approx. 11%. Pretty close to what the OP guessed.

lolllll wrote:

FazzT wrote:

Men under 40: 35%

Women under 40: 12.5%

Men over 40: 12.5%

Women over 40: 2.5%

You think THIRTY FIVE percent of men under 40 in the US can run two straight 90 second laps on a track? Zero chance of that, truly. Under ten percent can run one 90 second lap, three or four percent can run a sub three minute half mile. Under one percent of women in the US can run that, regardless of age. We're talking the true general population here. Most people honestly can't complete one lap on a track without walking.

I really do think you underestimate the average male. You all act as though the avg male is 300lbs and never done cardio in their lives. The avg male wants to look good for females and is probably fit enough to enjoy sports occasionally (eg trampolining, rugby, swimming) basically sports which are considered fun and not only that they are much stronger than you would think, avg males under 40 are probably around 5’9-5’10 and about 75kg with a LOT more muslce power than a distance runner. I think a large chunk of them with BMIs between 22-26 would be around 3min for a half mile. Now maybe fir a 1.5 mile that would be much harder for them and you would see times arou d 12:30 then.

FazzT wrote:

Men under 40: 35%

Women under 40: 12.5%

Men over 40: 12.5%

Women over 40: 2.5%

I seriously doubt those numbers are even close. Most people do not do any type of exercise let alone run. So for the population as a whole:

Men under 40: 15%

Women under 40: 5%

Men over 40: 3%

Women over 40: 0.5%

Dadbod wrote:

FazzT wrote:

I really do think you underestimate the average male. You all act as though the avg male is 300lbs and never done cardio in their lives. The avg male wants to look good for females and is probably fit enough to enjoy sports occasionally (eg trampolining, rugby, swimming) basically sports which are considered fun and not only that they are much stronger than you would think, avg males under 40 are probably around 5’9-5’10 and about 75kg with a LOT more muslce power than a distance runner. I think a large chunk of them with BMIs between 22-26 would be around 3min for a half mile. Now maybe fir a 1.5 mile that would be much harder for them and you would see times arou d 12:30 then.

So looking good for the opposite sex translates into the ability to run a sub 3 half-mile??

A lot of guys under 40 go to the gym, granted, but mostly to lift weights to put on muscle to look good for the women. You can have somebody with a chiselled 6-pack and they would get out of breath climbing the stairs. Most muscle building gurus on YouTube advise their followers to virtually not do any cardio (because it kills gainz!).

If you really are dumb enough to think that half or so of under 40 males could run sub 3, then basically you're saying the average male is capable of sub 2:20 after a year or so's training.

Most people who can run a sub-3 half mile can also run a 6-minute mile, except for the people who can barely run it in under 3:00.

This topic has already been covered in these threads.

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5255585

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=6437317

The correct answer is less than 1%. Modern humans are incredibly unhealthy. Go to Walmart and take a look around. Sub 5 let alone sub 3 for an 800 is optimistic.

https://i.imgflip.com/ixxfy.jpg

World population? You're probably right

U.S. population? Probably less than 1% total.

wondering man wrote:

Why do people post these questions on letsrun? Is it to make you feel better about yourself because you can do something in your sleep that less than half of everyone else could do, because you feel inadequate in all other measurable areas in life (wealth, job, muscle)?

Yes, exactly. The OP knows full well that only a small percentage could run 3 minutes, so he's saying in a round about way - 'Look at me, I'm so fast at the 800m that I can't believe most other people are so slow'.

Datapoint: I'm 6'3'', 190lb, and 48 years old. I run 4 miles 3 days a week at about an 8:20 pace.

I am in vastly better running shape than the vast majority of the population.

I think that if I were properly paced I could just about squeak out a sub-3 half mile.

Think about that before you start tossing percentages around.

FazzT wrote:

I really do think you underestimate the average male. You all act as though the avg male is 300lbs and never done cardio in their lives. The avg male wants to look good for females and is probably fit enough to enjoy sports occasionally (eg trampolining, rugby, swimming) basically sports which are considered fun and not only that they are much stronger than you would think, avg males under 40 are probably around 5’9-5’10 and about 75kg with a LOT more muslce power than a distance runner. I think a large chunk of them with BMIs between 22-26 would be around 3min for a half mile. Now maybe fir a 1.5 mile that would be much harder for them and you would see times arou d 12:30 then.

I coach a hobby-jogger track workout every Tuesday in the warmer months. The 'Fast' group is generally getting their best runners near 3:00 in half mile intervals. Noted if you take the intervals out and just make it a race then a large portion of the 'fast group' would probably hit the target but these are all people who run on a regular basis as adults and are coming to a track workout to train and get faster. Heck, the women who are hitting that time are all Boston Qualifiers.

I will agree that people who play other sports as adults are good contenders, but the number of people who do any regular exercise outside of college age is probably well under 50%. You probably need a 23 min 5k to stand a chance and that is going to put you near the top 10% of people who run 5ks. 6 minute milers are Hobby Jogger elites. You are really down playing what it takes to get there.

97% of men and 70% of women could do it in their physical prime if they wanted it.

But most of them choose not to train for that, because they are not serious about running,

wondering man wrote:

Why do people post these questions on letsrun? Is it to make you feel better about yourself because you can do something in your sleep that less than half of everyone else could do, because you feel inadequate in all other measurable areas in life (wealth, job, muscle)?

You may be right: