Hey All – it’s rare that my two passions in life combine. I’m a runner and expert in the Li-ion battery value chain / electric vechicles. I love the passion here, but I think there are some misconceptions with respect to batteries and electric vehicles (EVs) here that I’ll try to address. Happy to expand further if anyone is interested
@Oracle of LRC - Tesla has messed up time and again and continues to underperform. Whether they can continually make magic and thrive by selling the story, cannot last forever. Eventually their multiple needs to come down assuming they can ever turn a profit. Their supply chain optimization has not been ideal historically. They do have a significant leg up on the competition, so whether they are going through growing pains or eventually they’ll hit a bump in the road that becomes the straw that brakes the camel’s back remains to be seen.
@Shoebacca Chevy does not have a better fleet than Tesla. I’d ask you to look and or test drive the Volt and Bolt in comparison to the Model 3. It is night and day. Chevy has a good battery pack in the Bolt and unfortunately built a mediocre car above it (and not as powerful vehicle / electric motor as they could have built). I would drive a Bolt for sure. It’s not slow and 238 miles of range is solid, but the model 3 blows it out of the water
@Chinese cars – The Chinese market is entirely driven by subsidies, EV makers there do really well locally. Because of air pollution, the Chinese gov’t HAS to back EVs. Automakers in China are still making much more poor quality vehicles for the local market but long term that will change. Similarly, on the battery production side – quality is still better in Korea and Japan and even the small scale battery cell manufacturing that exists in the U.S… Our lead won’t last forever, but Tesla’s biggest competitor is not Chinese.
@American Worker battery production and mining can be green. Lithium is not a conflict mineral or is rare. It's not. Its mining is fairly benign compared to most processes and it is a crust abundant element. We have enough lithium to electrify the world's auto fleet, but we dont have the capacity to meet current demand so prices have gone up due to a demand/supply "squeeze"... we will be in a tight lithium market where lower quality lithium materials that previously were not fit for the battery requirements well be converted into higher purity chemicals.
Cobalt is more of a challenge though your fears arw over blown. Cobalt is dominated by the battery industry today and 60% of the world's supply comes from the DRC. About 10% of that or 5% of global supply is a conflict mineral. However, we are going to use less cobalt for electric vehicles on a per unit basis as compared to cell phones (which use a lithium cobalt oxide cathode i.e. mostly cobalt)
@American Worker – furthermore, gov’t subsidies are going away for Tesla in the next year. Tesla doesn’t advertise, and EVs will be cheaper than ICEs on a cost-performance basis depending on vehicle range in the near future.
@Bad Wiigins – EVs are not for libs and they don’t suck. I guarantee you will find yourself mistaken. Electric cars are better than ICEs – they deliver torque instantaneously are cleaner and deliver overall better performance with no maintenance. My colleague, a former pro dirt bike riding republican just bought the Tesla Roadster of the dirt bike world called Alta Motors – you have never seen someone so immediately convinced that EVs are the future. The performance for a comparible bike is night and day. Similarly, the cost performance benefits of EVs will scale down market, which is why you are seeing some really really awesome power tools go cordless at a Home Depot near you.
@ Less popular than Jill Stein – all disruptive technologies start at small numbers. Disruptive technologies typically take longer to reach 1% penentration than 10% and 10% than a 100%. EVs are growing to be a serious part of automotive strategy. Expect more than 10% EVs in the next decade and the ICE to become an endangered species over the next few decades….
@Oracle of LRC Batteries are not a commodity – there’s a huge spectra of performance depending on material choices, thickness, production know-how etc… China has a lot of capacity and a lot of strong incentives to buy EVs locally but neither battery nor EV performance surpass that of US, Korean, Japanese comeptitors (on the battery side) this will change long term but we have a leg up for now
@JohnUtah – Thank you! Glad to see others defend EVs independent of party affiliation
@Middle of the Road - Solid state batteries are the most important next-generation battery technology which are most likely to make an impact in automotive. Having said that, i wouldnt wait for toyota or any automaker to roll them out. 2022 is an aggressive timeline d state (due to the use of a metallic lithium anode). I expect solid state to make it into vehicles ina major way with about 40% more energy density and a little better packing efficiency than li-ion cells today. I.e.solid-state will deliver about 50% more range than EVs for the same weight. Dont expect 600 mile EVs but 450 miles will happen with maybe a few outliers depending on the weight/ size of the vehicle