too hot wrote:
Did Boston's weather favor runners with the right type of "mindset"? Kawauchi is a 2:08 guy and we all know his story but how does Sara Sellers beat both Molly Huddle and Shalane Flanagan? Are the latter just not tough enough? Or are they just more prone to hypothermia? If so, are they remiss for not training in all kinds of weather?
Honestly, the toughness narrative that is being floated around is a little hard to digest for me but maybe there is something to that.
True to form, I have long winded opinions on this based on stuff I've read previously, and a link to Luke Humphrey's HMM blog.
Cold running impacts performance just like running when it's 'too hot' (though the mechanisms are different). According to the link below, cold weather reduces force of muscle contraction, which means it takes more work to run at a given pace, which decreases the lactate threshold and increases use of carbohydrates and intensity at a given pace. I think since hot weather affects different people to varying degrees, it's also safe to assume this is true for cold weather. It'll affect some more than others.
So, while the front of the pack women did go out a little bit slower than usual, it's still likely that they were burning carbs faster than they realized. Whether due to inexperience or miscalculation this will become a huge issue if you don't adjust your clothing, fueling, or pace sufficiently (or have the right inherent makeup or past history with cold). Especially in a race this long.
In their LetsRun post-race interviews Shalane and Molly both voiced stories of "teeth chattering" in the first half of the race, and pretty serious cases of mental confusion in the last couple miles. The confusion stuff sure sounds like a pretty clear example of either hypothermia or the classic hit the wall carb depleted bonk (or maybe both). At this point it's not a matter of being "tough" or having the right "mindset." You're just toast. People that gradually slow but are aware of what they're doing like myself in every marathon maybe didn't tough it out. People that are suffering from delusion or confusion found that true bonk, and there was nothing they could do. If anything, props to them for having the toughness to finish out the race instead of dropping out like many others.
Molly also said in her interview when she tried to cover Desi's move she could feel the lactate burn in her legs and thought they must have been flying and she knew she couldn't hold that pace the rest of the way, which is another indicator to me that her lactate threshold had dropped pretty significantly due to cold.
The women that placed second and third approached the race totally differently. They both said they had goals in the mid 2:30s, and when the conditions were presented to them they just totally stopped looking at their watch, ran completely by effort, and tried to finish strong. They're also live in Utah and Canada, which likely helped with the cold and knowing how to adjust, but I think the biggest difference is that by running their own race and going by effort they were staying away from that over-carb-burn pace much better and obviously didn't bonk.
So to answer your questions: I don't think it is just a matter of toughness. They may be more prone to hypothermia but it also may be that they didn't properly adjust their carb intake/output ratio or pace based on the weather. Since it affects everyone to a differing degree it's probably really hard to dial that in without loads of prior experience, and they didn't really have a choice at the start to do anything but go with the lead pack pace wise if they wanted a chance to win (without the added hindsight I mean, in the moment they didn't have a choice). If they were planning to run a race that they 100% knew was going to be cold like in Anarctica or something I would say they would be remiss for not properly preparing for the weather, but in a case like Boston on this day, it's nearly impossible to prepare for the once in 100 years weather condition while also preparing for the once in 5 years possibility of hot weather or once in 3 years possibility of decent weather. You can only do so much. Further, even if they somehow foresaw this weather months ago it still affects different people differently just like any new variable, so the cards may have just been stacked against them period.
Link:
https://hansonscoachingservices.com/winter-running-performance/