That makes sense (except the gear choice). I think Sage indeed had a shot at a Top 10 finish. #10 came in in 2:27:50. With smart racing and even pacing, I think that would have been feasible. The thing is, that's easy to say in hindsight. The fact that so many elites DNF just shows how difficult pacing was (most non-elites are not redlining). Many went out too fast, in combination with getting too cold they burned way too much energy. 40F is deceptive, if not for the crazy headwind you can easily race in a singlet, even in the rain. And in fact many did race in just a singlet (Yuki!) and did just fine, it depends on the individual.
Btw, he's saying on youtube he's planning another OTQ attempt soon, but it has to be within the next 2-3 weeks. Is a DNF at mile 18 caused by hypothermia comparable to a hard 18 mile training run? I would think it takes longer to recover, but I'm no expert.