The way we see it, based on past accomplishments and recent form, five women have greater than five percent chance of victory -- Mergia, Kiplagat, Hasay, Flanagan, and Huddle -- and three of them are American. Considering how well all of the Americans have been running recently and the absence of a behemoth like Keitany or Tirunesh Dibaba, we feel confident in saying that the pre-race odds of an American victory in Boston in 2018 are the best they've been in the World Marathon Majors era. They're definitely WAY, WAY better than Flanagan's odds of victory in New York last fall as before that race as Keitany was coming off a 2:17:01 in London and was a HUMONGOUS favorite.
But that doesn't mean an American will win.