I would like to see it done as I think she has the ability
I would like to see it done as I think she has the ability
She has made several attempts in vain at 14:11, let alone 14:00. When she was in the form of her life in 2016, she ran a nearly perfectly paced race in near perfect conditions in the Rome DL and fell short at 14:12. I doubt she has a sub 14 in her.
Tirunesh Dibaba's 5000m WR of 14:11 has remained surprisingly resilient over the years.
This year is definitely the year to do it as there are no major championship 5000s. Though who knows if she is still aiming to break it considering she seems more 10k oriented and has already dabbled in the Half Marathon.
I know Obiri seems interested in breaking the 5000m WR as well, so if Ayana was hopeful and raced against her in some of the Diamond League races... it could go down. Definitely hope that will be the case.
She could do it this year. Irony is that In order to do it she requires a very good pacer up to the 3k point and because Almaz is t good at tempo changes she really needs to be taken through 3k in about 8.30 problem is who can possibly pace her to that time who won’t already be in the race attempting the record also?
She definitely won’t go sub 14 though. Everyone thinks of Ayana as a 10k specialist now as she shines at this event at world champ events and her 5k efforts at WC have suffered markedly as a result of doing the 10k first. - Her two 5k finals at the Rio Olympics and the London world champs are by far the slowest two 5k times she has run in the past three years.
This year you have three women who have stated an interest in pursuing the 5k WR - Obiri, Genzebe Dibaba and Ayana. If all three race together then Ayana is in danger of becoming g the default pacemaker for the other two. It will be interesting. I don’t read anything into Obiri beating Ayana in London or Rio as both times Ayana was struggling with recovery from super fast 10k times and splits.
If I were a betting man I would say the record will go this year in a diamond league meet. If it doesn’t go this year then it may not go at all.
One record that will never go in my opinion is Wang Junxias 3k WR of 8.06 - Thankfully back in the early 90’s the women’s 3k was still the women’s benchmark distance as 5k had only recently been installed. If Wang had run the 5 instead of the 3 the record could well be lower than 14.11
The Hungarian Tables would put Wang's 8:06 as 13:54. I think the aggregate of tables puts it at something like 14:01. Genzebe in her prime could have taken a crack at it, but I doubt she could have done it, and theres certainly nobody else who could come close.
The real question is whether she'll be handed a lifetime ban before or after the sub 14 attempt.
I don't think it matters. She has a good championships record. Sub-14:00 might sound like much but it's more than three seconds per mile better than the world record. If she ran, say, 14:07, I'm sure she'd be pleased.
"Will Almaz Ayana ever make a serious try at sub 14 before she gets busted for PEDs?"
So how does the PED argument pan out with Ayana? - If you think Ayana is dirty then you must also think that the rest of the 10K field is clean given the distance she puts on them?
If she is doped to the gilsl then why does she perform poorly in her second race of championships? - Look at Wang Junxia, she set the 10k WR, the 3K WR and broke the then existing 1500m WR all within a week or so! - This is what PEDS enable you to do, recover crazy quick from previous extreme exertion. - Ayana shows none of this inhuman recovery.
What she HAS done is introduce new strategies of running and winning races. Ross Tucker showed graphical evidence that all the distance 5 & 10K records have the last kilometer as the fastest - all except Ayana, she s the only athlete who runs her fastest kilometer split earlier in the race. - in all running history, she is unique.
Would like to see it happen! wrote:
I would like to see it done as I think she has the ability
Yes, right now as you type out your post she is busy storing blood in her fridge.
Her style of running is all wrong for it. She goes out in WR pace, and her attention at that point is to try to
hold on to the pace. That is not the way to do it, because it will definitely lead to fatigue.
A runner is going to have to run an insane negative split to break the record, because dibaba ran an insane negative split.
Unless she changes here strategy, it will be very, very difficult for her to break it with her current tactics.
It is notable that apart from her WR 14.11 Tirunesh Dibaba never again (or previously) dipped under 14.20. Also in her entire track career Vivian Cheryiuot never broke 14.20. Obiri took the Kenyan record from her last year with her 14.18 in Rome. Afterwards she was absolutely spent and promptly stated the record would be very difficult. I feel Genzebe could threaten it, closest she got was in Paris two years ago when she was ironically paced by Ayana right through ( Ayana was really pissed as Dibaba was supposed to share the pacemaking duties but instead sat on Ayana right through)
I still think Ayana has the best chance simply because she has four sub 14.19 times which is double the next best athlete. If she beefs up her start a little I reckon it will go.
I also reckon Ayana, Obiri and Dibaba may have already broken the record in training with male pacers ahead of them.
I like Ayana. Her running style is unique on track and she makes sure there is no sit and kick tactic. Just honest hard run.