Houlihan @ the worlds

Hardloper wrote:

Looks like an informative preview which predicted a top three that (correctly) did not include Houlihan

I agree that their story did a good job of laying out where the uncertainties lay. But their prediction was way off.

Their prediction was: 1) Obiri; 2) Hassan; 3) Dibaba; 4 (or lower) Muir. This prediction implies how each runner would do compared to every other runner: O would beat H, D & M, H would beat D & M, and D would beat M. Of these six pairs, they only predicted the winner in two pairs: As they predicted, Hassan beat Muir and Dibaba beat Muir. They were wrong about Obiri versus everyone, and about Hasan beating Dibaba.

Looked at this way, they got two predictions right, and four wrong. In other words, they only got 1/3 right -- they would have better off flipping coins.

Another way to put this is that they were as wrong as they could be about Obiri -- instead of beating the other three, she lost to all of them. And they were wrong about Dibaba and Hassan.

Macdaddy wrote:

Agreed that Houlihan isn’t on the same levels as those who dominated today. However, she just turned 25 and is improving at a great rate. I think we should all be excited about her future.

Same age (to within a few months) as Muir and Hassan.

Macdaddy wrote:

vivalarepublica wrote:

As I said in the meet predictions, the top 4 are on a different level than Houlihan. Maybe she should give Jenny Simpson and Emma Coburn a call to learn how to compete with the top tier. In the meantime, keep putting in thise miles.

I can’t remember... was Coburn at US indoor?

Agreed that Houlihan isn’t on the same levels as those who dominated today. However, she just turned 25 and is improving at a great rate. I think we should all be excited about her future.

Touche, but she is WORLD CHAMP in her specialty event. That's worth something.

Qwerto wrote:

I don’t know why you had to make six posts asking for clarification when the answer is so obvious.

Beating a dead horse, you say? I can't really deny that, can I?

My only defense is that it's been a while since I've looked at LRC. I'd forgotten how enthusiastic the fanboys can be. My bad.

I was gonna say it was a disappointing race for Houlihan, but it turned into a miler's race and the people ahead of her are all better milers than her.

Houlihan's unpressed 4:24 mile from Boston is worth 4:05, and her last 2K today is worth 4:03 (and had 1K run-up, albeit slow). She is in at least 4:00 shape when fresh, plus has outstanding tactical ability; we'll have to see how much the 3K took out of her.

vivalarepublica wrote:

Macdaddy wrote:

I can’t remember... was Coburn at US indoor?

Agreed that Houlihan isn’t on the same levels as those who dominated today. However, she just turned 25 and is improving at a great rate. I think we should all be excited about her future.

Touche, but she is WORLD CHAMP in her specialty event. That's worth something.

Coburn is terrible at the 3k. Did you see her at DL last summer?

I thought Shelby had a better chance to win today. Unfortunately, I think the whole slow ramp up in pace ultimately did a lot of them in (Obiri too!).. A lot of the ladies didn't run their race. For example, I think Klosterhauffen could have done better had she just pushed it from the onset. I think Shelby would do better on a moderate paced race and then she can kick the 400/200 or so...

levels wrote:

Macdaddy wrote:

Agreed that Houlihan isn’t on the same levels as those who dominated today. However, she just turned 25 and is improving at a great rate. I think we should all be excited about her future.

Same age (to within a few months) as Muir and Hassan.

Interesting.

Nevertheless, I think Houlihan has a lot more room to improve than the others you listed. Will she end up as good/better than them? I don’t know. I do believe that the gap will close significantly over the next two years - many PRs to come

4th and a mere DQ from the medals! Great meet for Shelby, a big step up on the world stage!

Can anyone find splits for Shelby today? I didn't see them on the IAAF site, only for the leader. I'd love to see her splits for the last 200, 400, and 800. She closed really well, too bad that she was so far back when the real racing began.

YMMV wrote:

4th and a mere DQ from the medals! Great meet for Shelby, a big step up on the world stage!

Looks like she was hanging back and hoping to pick off anyone that fell off the fast pace for a medal. Which worked for everyone but the top three.

nikeman wrote:

Can anyone find splits for Shelby today? I didn't see them on the IAAF site, only for the leader. I'd love to see her splits for the last 200, 400, and 800. She closed really well, too bad that she was so far back when the real racing began.

I would like to have detailed splits too, but seems not possible at world indoors..

Other than that Shelby didn't even try to be up there when the racing began but just catched those who wanted too much (Chepkoech who can't sprint or Chebet who isn't in really good shape). So no need to feel sorry, while she got a good place due to this strategy (and others misjudging their effort) she still was miles away from medailling, completly different league.

Bad karma for dangling the 1500 spot in Shannon Osika's face, then yanking it back in a misguided attempt to double.

Just one DQ away from a medal!

mikenan wrote:

She still was miles away from medailling, completly different league.

Given how much she's improved in the last few years, it will be interesting to see if she moves up to the next league.

She just seemed to not have the fire this week. Like Jenny Simpson in London 2012.

dfdf wrote:

Just one DQ away from a medal!

Or drug bust.

falconrunner22 wrote:

She just seemed to not have the fire this week. Like Jenny Simpson in London 2012.

I don't get the comparison to Simpson. In 2012, Simpson was disappointed/disappointing because she didn't do as well as she had in the past. This was Houlihan's best weekend in the big leagues. She's never finished in the top 10 at a world meet before, let alone 4th. She ran a PB. And, the women who beat her are the best in the world. No shame in losing to them.

Shelby had a great weekend. Deal with it.