Okay, I’m trying to work out whether 2:45 is an at-all-reasonable goal for a marathon in 12 weeks (not Boston). Any thoughts much appreciated.
Background
Male, 40, 5’10, 130lb. This will be my ninth marathon in the last 10 years, with the last five across 2:47-2:56. In 2015 I ran three in the 2:47-2:50 range off 65mpw. In early 2017 I had a sacral stress fracture and had four months off running and have slowly built back. The last 13 weeks have averaged out at 71mpw and I’m aiming to be at 80mpw for the next 10 weeks before I taper. So far I’ve run seven LRs ranging from 20-22 miles, and these will build to 24. Some are straight long runs and some have been made up of 5km repeats. Going forward, some will be half easy and half MP.
In addition to the LR, I do a MLR of 16 miles. Again, sometimes these are easy paced and sometimes they have a chunk of MP in the middle.
Key work outs (so far)
17 with 3x5km in 19:12, 18:37, 18:45 (there’s a 1-mile jog between each 5km repeat)
17 with 3x5km in 19:04, 18:34, 18:45
18 with 3x5km in 18:56, 18:54, 19:00
18 with 10@6:11
20 with 3x5km in 19:31, 19:17, 19:09
13 with 9@6:01
20 with 3x5km 19:16, 19:24, 19:21
20 with 4x5km in 18:32, 18:53, 18:59, 18:55 (thought about doing a fifth but was running out of time before work)
18 with 10@6:09
Going forward
I’ve started to move away from the 5km repeats and will now be moving towards runs with 10 miles at goal pace, or with 2x10km repeats, plus a 24 miler or two with 15 or so at MP. I will probably do a 24 miler with 5x5km repeats as well – I did this before my 2:47 and it was a great workout.
I don’t do any shorter intervals because I feel like they are an injury waiting to happen for me – also had a major calf tear a few years back. I know I don’t have any real speed, but I can chug along for a while at an okay pace. My HM PR is 1:22.15 (fast, flat course but windy day) set a month before my 2:47 (perfect weather, undulating course), so I tend to convert pretty well.
Apologies for the long post, but if you were in this situation with the above parameters and injury history, would you think that 2:45 is reasonable, and what would you do over the next 12 weeks to make it more reasonable?