A closer look at EPO-era performances

I wish the silk road was still around so you could buy epo with bitcoin...

rekrunner wrote:

If you want to know what "the biggest effect rekrunner is seeing", here is what I said at the top:

The thing that strikes me as most anomalous, when you look at athletes from "5 continents"...

1) why there were are so few examples making the cut-off, and

2) why their respective improvements were significantally smaller

during a period spanning decades, when ... there existed a "game-changing" undetectable drug that would have helped them close the gap, and "level" the playing field.

3hr_marathoner wrote:

The most striking set of numbers is:

# East-African males better than the 80's cutoffs: 16, 49, 25, 91, 101, 183

# non-African males better than the '80s cutoffs: 2, 9, 2, 8, 5, 12

So the biggest effect rekrunner is seeing that of the emerging depth of East-African talent in men's distance running which happens to coincide with the beginning of the EPO era. I doubt that any statistical method can separate the effects of these two factors.

Dr. Rosa fled to Kenya and was allowed to "experiment" unfettered with the complete lack of control of drugs legal or legal in Kenya and throughout most of Africa. Hermens and others followed suit. There's a large percentage of talented E. Africans, couple that with rampant drug use and political forces allowing much of the cheating to go on and what we see are artificially inflated numbers of top E. Africans. Some are legit, the rest are just talented runners who are the best responders. Geb, KB and many others are nothing more than smiling filthy cheats and even the most PC brainwashed dopes realize this on some level but that brainwashing causes them to fight to the cognitive dissonance with all of their feminized might.

You are reading it correctly -- but just because something is written, doesn't mean it's true. You are right to say "unbelievable". A few people misunderstood a long defense of the IAAF's response and established anti-doping science, as an over the top defense of Paula, and some bright bulb assumed only Paula's husband would do that. Or it was designed to be some kind of distraction or deflection mechanism. I'm an American in Europe, with no connection to Paula or Gary.

Inquiring minds want to know wrote:

Whoa!...am I hearing this correctly? His "wife's off-scores" as in *Paula Radcliff's* off-scores??? So, "rekrunner" is Gary rekrunner who is Gary Lough who is Paula Radcliff's husband??? Unbelievable if it's true. Wow.

rekrunner wrote:

A few people misunderstood a long defense of the IAAF's response and established anti-doping science,

You being the most prominent of them on these message boards ....

1500m all time best - ALL CHEATERS NO OOC TESTING IN THOSE COUNTRIES

1 3:26.00 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Roma 14.07.1998

2 3:26.12 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Bruxelles 24.08.2001

3 3:26.34 Bernard Lagat KEN 12.12.74 2 Bruxelles 24.08.2001

4 3:26.45 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1rA Zürich 12.08.1998

5 3:26.69 Asbel Kiprop KEN 30.06.89 1 Monaco 17.07.2015

6 3:26.89 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1rA Zürich 16.08.2002

7 3:26.96 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Rieti 08.09.2002

8 3:27.21 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1rA Zürich 11.08.2000

9 3:27.34 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Monaco 19.07.2002

10 3:27.37 Noureddine Morceli ALG 28.02.70 1 Nice 12.07.1995

11 3:27.40 Bernard Lagat KEN 12.12.74 1 Zürich 06.08.2004

12 3:27.52 Noureddine Morceli ALG 28.02.70 1 Monaco 25.07.1995

13 3:27.64 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 2 Zürich 06.08.2004

13 3:27.64 Silas Kiplagat KEN 20.08.89 1 Monaco 18.07.2014

15 3:27.65 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Sevilla 24.08.1999

16 3:27.72 Asbel Kiprop KEN 30.06.89 1 Monaco 19.07.2013

17 3:27.91 Bernard Lagat KEN 12.12.74 2 Monaco 19.07.2002

18 3:28.12 Noah Ngeny KEN 02.11.78 2rA Zürich 11.08.2000

19 3:28.21+ Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Roma 07.07.1999

20 3:28.37 Noureddine Morceli ALG 28.02.70 1 Monaco 09.09.1995

20 3:28.37 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Monaco 08.08.1998

22 3:28.38 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Saint-Denis 06.07.2001

23 3:28.40 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Bruxelles 05.09.2003

24 3:28.45 Asbel Kiprop KEN 30.06.89 2 Monaco 18.07.2014

25 3:28.51 Bernard Lagat KEN 12.12.74 3rA Zürich 11.08.2000

26 3:28.57 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1rA Zürich 11.08.1999

27 3:28.6+ Noah Ngeny KEN 02.11.78 2 Roma 07.07.1999

28 3:28.73 Noah Ngeny KEN 02.11.78 2 Sevilla 24.08.1999

29 3:28.75 Taoufik Makhloufi ALG 29.04.88 2 Monaco 17.07.2015

30 3:28.79 Abdelati Iguider MAR 25.03.87 3 Monaco 17.07.2015

3000 M ALL TIME BEST - ALL CHEATERS NO OOC TESTING IN THOSE COUNTRIES

1 7:20.67 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Rieti 01.09.1996

2 7:23.09 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 1 Bruxelles 03.09.1999

3 7:25.02 Ali Saïdi-Sief ALG 15.03.78 1 Monaco 18.08.2000

4 7:25.09 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Bruxelles 28.08.1998

5 7:25.11 Noureddine Morceli ALG 28.02.70 1 Monaco 02.08.1994

6 7:25.16 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Monaco 10.08.1996

7 7:25.54 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Monaco 08.08.1998

8 7:25.79 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Stockholm 07.08.2007

9 7:25.87 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Bruxelles 23.08.1996

10 7:26.02 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Bruxelles 22.08.1997

11 7:26.03 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Helsinki 10.06.1999

12 7:26.62 Mohammed Mourhit BEL 10.10.70 2 Monaco 18.08.2000

13 7:26.69 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Sheffield 15.07.2007

14 7:27.0+ Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Sydney 28.02.1998

15 7:27.18 Moses Kiptanui KEN 01.10.70 1 Monaco 25.07.1995

16 7:27.26 Yenew Alamirew ETH 27.05.90 1 Ad-Dawhah 06.05.2011

17 7:27.3+ Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Hechtel 19.07.1997

18 7:27.42 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Oslo 09.07.1998

19 7:27.50 Noureddine Morceli ALG 28.02.70 1 Bruxelles 25.08.1995

20 7:27.55 Edwin Cheruiyot Soi KEN 03.03.86 2 Ad-Dawhah 06.05.2011

21 7:27.59 Luke Kipkosgei KEN 27.11.75 2 Monaco 08.08.1998

22 7:27.66 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 05.11.84 3 Ad-Dawhah 06.05.2011

23 7:27.67 Ali Saïdi-Sief ALG 15.03.78 1 Saint-Denis 23.06.2000

24 7:27.72 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 05.11.84 1 Bruxelles 03.09.2004

25 7:27.75 Thomas Nyariki KEN 27.09.71 2 Monaco 10.08.1996

26 7:28.04 Moses Kiptanui KEN 01.10.70 1 Köln 18.08.1995

27 7:28.19 Yomif Kejelcha ETH 01.08.97 1 Saint-Denis 27.08.2016

28 7:28.28 Luke Kipkosgei KEN 27.11.75 2 Oslo 09.07.1998

28 7:28.28 James Kwalia KEN 12.06.84 2 Bruxelles 03.09.2004

30 7:28.37 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 05.11.84 1 Ad-Dawhah 08.05.2009

5000M ALL TIME BEST - ALL CHEATERS NO OOC TESTING IN THOSE COUNTRIES

1 12:37.35 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Hengelo 31.05.2004

2 12:39.36 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Helsinki 13.06.1998

3 12:39.74 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Bruxelles 22.08.1997

4 12:40.18 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Saint-Denis 01.07.2005

5 12:41.86 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Zürich 13.08.1997

6 12:44.39 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Zürich 16.08.1995

7 12:44.90 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 2 Zürich 13.08.1997

8 12:45.09 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Zürich 14.08.1996

9 12:46.53 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 05.11.84 1 Roma 02.07.2004

10 12:46.81 Dejen Gebremeskel ETH 24.11.89 1 Saint-Denis 06.07.2012

11 12:47.04 Sileshi Sihine ETH 29.01.83 2 Roma 02.07.2004

12 12:47.53 Hagos Gebrhiwet ETH 11.05.94 2 Saint-Denis 06.07.2012

13 12:48.09 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Bruxelles 25.08.2006

14 12:48.25 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Zürich 18.08.2006

15 12:48.64 Isiah Koech KEN 19.12.93 3 Saint-Denis 06.07.2012

16 12:48.66 Issac Songok KEN 25.04.84 2 Zürich 18.08.2006

17 12:48.77 Yenew Alamirew ETH 27.05.90 4 Saint-Denis 06.07.2012

18 12:48.81 Stephen Cherono KEN 15.10.82 1 Ostrava 12.06.2003

19 12:48.98 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Roma 05.06.1997

20 12:49.04 Thomas Longosiwa KEN 14.01.82 5 Saint-Denis 06.07.2012

21 12:49.28 Brahim Lahlafi MAR 15.04.68 1 Bruxelles 25.08.2000

22 12:49.50 John Kipkoech KEN 29.12.91 6 Saint-Denis 06.07.2012

23 12:49.53 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Zaragoza 28.07.2007

24 12:49.64 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Zürich 11.08.1999

25 12:49.71 Mohammed Mourhit BEL 10.10.70 2 Bruxelles 25.08.2000

26 12:49.87 Paul Tergat KEN 17.06.69 3 Zürich 13.08.1997

27 12:50.16 Sileshi Sihine ETH 29.01.83 1 Bruxelles 14.09.2007

28 12:50.18 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Zürich 29.08.2008

29 12:50.22 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 05.11.84 1 Bruxelles 26.08.2005

30 12:50.24 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 2 Ostrava 12.06.2003

1000m ALL TIME BEST - ALL CHEATERS NO OOC TESTING IN THOSE COUNTRIES

1 26:17.53 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Bruxelles 26.08.2005

2 26:20.31 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Ostrava 08.06.2004

3 26:22.75 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Hengelo 01.06.1998

4 26:25.97 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Eugene 08.06.2008

5 26:27.85 Paul Tergat KEN 17.06.69 1 Bruxelles 22.08.1997

6 26:28.72 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Hengelo 29.05.2005

7 26:29.22 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Bruxelles 05.09.2003

8 26:30.03 Nicholas Kemboi KEN 25.11.83 2 Bruxelles 05.09.2003

9 26:30.74 Abebe Dinkesa Negera ETH 06.03.84 2 Hengelo 29.05.2005

10 26:31.32 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Oslo 04.07.1997

11 26:35.63 Micah Kogo KEN 03.06.86 1 Bruxelles 25.08.2006

12 26:36.26 Paul Koech KEN 25.06.69 2 Bruxelles 22.08.1997

13 26:37.25 Zersenay Tadese ERI 08.02.82 2 Bruxelles 25.08.2006

14 26:38.08 Salah Hissou MAR 16.01.72 1 Bruxelles 23.08.1996

15 26:38.76 Abdullah Ahmad Hassan QAT 29.07.81 3 Bruxelles 05.09.2003

16 26:39.69 Sileshi Sihine ETH 29.01.83 1 Hengelo 31.05.2004

17 26:39.77 Boniface Kiprop UGA 12.10.85 2 Bruxelles 26.08.2005

18 26:41.58 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 2 Hengelo 31.05.2004

19 26:41.75 Samuel Wanjiru KEN 10.11.86 3 Bruxelles 26.08.2005

20 26:41.95 Boniface Kiprop UGA 12.10.85 3 Bruxelles 25.08.2006

21 26:43.16 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Bruxelles 16.09.2011

22 26:43.53 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Hengelo 05.06.1995

23 26:43.98 Lucas Rotich KEN 16.04.90 2 Bruxelles 16.09.2011

24 26:44.36 Galen Rupp USA 08.05.86 1 Eugene 30.05.2014

25 26:46.19 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Bruxelles 14.09.2007

26 26:46.31 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Berlin 17.08.2009

27 26:46.44 Paul Tergat KEN 17.06.69 1 Bruxelles 28.08.1998

28 26:46.57 Mohamed Farah GBR 23.03.83 1 Eugene 03.06.2011

29 26:47.89 Paul Koech KEN 25.06.69 2 Bruxelles 28.08.1998

30 26:48.00 Galen Rupp USA 08.05.86 3 Bruxelles 16.09.2011 - hehehe yes or no? Definitely YES

HALF MARATHON ALL TIME BEST - ALL CHEATERS NO OOC TESTING IN THOSE COUNTRIES

1 58:23 Zersenay Tadese ERI 08.02.82 1 Lisboa 21.03.2010

2 58:31 Zersenay Tadese ERI 08.02.82 1 Lisboa 20.03.2011

3 58:33 Samuel Wanjiru KEN 10.11.86 1 Den Haag 17.03.2007

4 58:40 Abraham Cheroben BRN 10.11.92 1 København 17.09.2017

5 58:44 Solomon Yego KEN 10.05.87 1 Roma-Ostia Lido 13.03.2016

6 58:46 Mathew Kisorio KEN 16.05.89 1 Philadelphia 18.09.2011

7 58:47 Atsedu Tsegay ETH 17.12.91 1 Praha 31.03.2012

8 58:48 Sammy Kirop Kitwara KEN 26.11.86 2 Philadelphia 18.09.2011

8 58:48 Abraham Cheroben KEN 10.11.92 1 Valencia 19.10.2014

8 58:48 Jorum Okumbo KEN 22.05.97 2 København 17.09.2017

11 58:51 Alex Oloitiptip KEN 20.12.90 3 København 17.09.2017

12 58:52 Patrick Makau KEN 02.03.85 1 Ra's Al Khaymah 20.02.2009

13 58:53 Samuel Wanjiru KEN 10.11.86 1 Ra's Al Khaymah 09.02.2007

14 58:54 Stephen Kibet Kosgei KEN 09.11.86 1 Den Haag 11.03.2012

14 58:54 Geoffrey Kamworor KEN 28.11.92 1 Ra's Al Khaymah 15.02.2013

16 58:55 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Tempe 15.01.2006

17 58:56 Patrick Makau KEN 02.03.85 1 Berlin 01.04.2007

17 58:56a Martin Irungu Mathathi KEN 25.12.85 1 Newcastle-South Shields 18.09.2011

17 58:56 Stanley Biwott KEN 21.04.86 2 Ra's Al Khaymah 15.02.2013

20 58:58 Sammy Kirop Kitwara KEN 26.11.86 1 Rotterdam 13.09.2009

20 58:58 Geoffrey Mutai KEN 07.10.81 3 Ra's Al Khaymah 15.02.2013

22 58:59 Zersenay Tadese ERI 08.02.82 1 Udine 14.10.2007

22 58:59 Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich KEN 15.03.82 2 Ra's Al Khaymah 20.02.2009

24 59:01 Kenneth Kipkemoi KEN 02.08.84 2 Valencia 19.10.2014

25 59:02 Patrick Makau KEN 02.03.85 2 Udine 14.10.2007

25 59:02 Jonathan Maiyo KEN 05.05.88 2 Den Haag 11.03.2012

27 59:05a Zersenay Tadese ERI 08.02.82 1 Newcastle-South Shields 18.09.2005

27 59:05 Evans Kiprop Cheruiyot KEN 10.05.82 3 Udine 14.10.2007

27 59:05 Ezekiel Chebii KEN 03.01.91 1 Lille 01.09.2012

30 59:06a Paul Tergat KEN 17.06.69 1 Lisboa 26.03.2000

MARATHON ALL TIME BEST - ALL CHEATERS NO OOC TESTING IN THOSE COUNTRIES

1 2:02:57 Dennis Kimetto KEN 22.04.84 1 Berlin 28.09.2014

2 2:03:02a Geoffrey Mutai KEN 07.10.81 1 Boston 18.04.2011

3 2:03:03 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Berlin 25.09.2016

4 2:03:05 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 05.11.84 1 London 24.04.2016

5 2:03:06a Moses Mosop KEN 17.07.85 2 Boston 18.04.2011

6 2:03:13 Emmanuel Mutai KEN 12.10.84 2 Berlin 28.09.2014

6 2:03:13 Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich KEN 15.03.82 2 Berlin 25.09.2016

8 2:03:23 Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich KEN 15.03.82 1 Berlin 29.09.2013

9 2:03:32 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 05.11.84 1 Berlin 24.09.2017

10 2:03:38 Patrick Makau KEN 02.03.85 1 Berlin 25.09.2011

11 2:03:42 Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich KEN 15.03.82 1 Frankfurt 30.10.2011

12 2:03:45 Dennis Kimetto KEN 22.04.84 1 Chicago 13.10.2013

13 2:03:46 Guye Adola ETH 20.10.90 2 Berlin 24.09.2017

14 2:03:51 Stanley Biwott KEN 21.04.86 2 London 24.04.2016

15 2:03:52 Emmanuel Mutai KEN 12.10.84 2 Chicago 13.10.2013

16 2:03:58 Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich KEN 15.03.82 1 Tokyo 26.02.2017

17 2:03:59 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Berlin 28.09.2008

18 2:04:00 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 05.11.84 1 Berlin 27.09.2015

19 2:04:05 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 05.11.84 2 Berlin 29.09.2013

20 2:04:11 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 05.11.84 1 Chicago 12.10.2014

20 2:04:11 Tamirat Tola ETH 11.08.91 1 Dubai 20.01.2017

22 2:04:15 Geoffrey Mutai KEN 07.10.81 1 Berlin 30.09.2012

23 2:04:16 Dennis Kimetto KEN 22.04.84 2 Berlin 30.09.2012

24 2:04:23 Ayele Abshero ETH 28.12.90 1 Dubai 27.01.2012

25 2:04:24 Tesfaye Abera ETH 31.03.92 1 Dubai 22.01.2016

26 2:04:26 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Berlin 30.09.2007

27 2:04:27 Duncan Kipkemboi Kibet KEN 25.04.78 1 Rotterdam 05.04.2009

27 2:04:27 James Kipsang Kwambai KEN 28.02.83 2 Rotterdam 05.04.2009

29 2:04:28 Sammy Kirop Kitwara KEN 26.11.86 2 Chicago 12.10.2014

30 2:04:29 Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich KEN 15.03.82 1 London 13.04.2014

Explain this with your statistics

Find 1 - ONE African who approach those times (close or very close to WR) and that he don't LIVE in Africa and that is REGULARLY tested during whole season and live in a decent not a sh!thole country. That SIR "cheater" Mo "sh!thole" "door bell ring" went all the time in Africa so don't count that POS as well.

FYI OOC - OUT OF COMPETITION TESTING is introduced in 1988 - 1988 - 1988 and all nations must comply with that except those above SH!THOLE countries including JAMAICA, BAHAMAS etc.

All those countries should and must be bannied at all international competitions same as Russia did.

All above results and you can expand those list to first 50, 70 results are WORTHLESS

There's something new. I gave two examples of what is "real" and "not real", and you conclude something not written, a concession that I now consider 12 "real" for all intents and purposes. I use brief and comprehensive words like "not real" and "not meaningful", not as an opportunity for you to pick nits in the semantics of such broad terms, but so I don't have to repeat lengthy posts like this, in an effort to follow advice to make my posts shorter. Regarding what was "not true" it is the word "history", and its implication that "history of 12 and 13" is significant, that I objected to. Just like I did, and you did, someone wrote 12 and 13 down, and published it. These "actual published data" are uncertain estimates of the "real and true" values. You can actually see for yourself from your selected quotes, what "not real" means when I wrote it: "(the actual published data) come(s) with uncertainties as large, or larger, than blood transfusions". These sources of uncertainties are also "actually published" in a collection of scientific journals, many co-authored by our favorite "accusing scientists". You don't want to, but you should, as bodies like IAAF and WADA and UKAD do, interpret your "actual published data" in the context established by "actual published research", and in the context of rule changes in 2007 and 2009, to allow the type of comparison, and draw the conclusions, you are attempting on 2003 and 2005 data. It's just not fit for that purpose. You can argue what you want about "meaningful", the data never meant what you want to say, for many reasons you must know by now, but choose to forget. Here's a glimpse of one of the things you forget, based on 2004 research into "inter-method bias" -- just the brand of the analyzer for the "same" sample can lead to substantially different "actual published data" -- corrupting both Hgb and RET% (the ingredients for the off score):

How "real" is 12, when "for the same sample two different machines can report HGB results that differed by 2g/dl"?

How "real" are the off-scores when RET% is even worse?

Nice story -- the stuff legends and myths are made of. Does it include Brother Colm? I recall East African men, both seniors and juniors, started dominating cross-country in the 1980's before the arrival of Dr. Rosa, and Jos Hermens. While Italian and Dutch drugs is one popular way to explain East and North African success, this completely sidesteps addressing my observed "anomaly": - Why didn't the results of these successful drug experiments trickle out of Africa, like we saw in cycling? I searched worldwide, over the entire period of 28 years, looking for just 5 non-African athletes that outperformed 1980's era runners.

Oldest Clicka wrote:

Dr. Rosa fled to Kenya and was allowed to "experiment" unfettered with the complete lack of control of drugs legal or legal in Kenya and throughout most of Africa. Hermens and others followed suit. There's a large percentage of talented E. Africans, couple that with rampant drug use and political forces allowing much of the cheating to go on and what we see are artificially inflated numbers of top E. Africans. Some are legit, the rest are just talented runners who are the best responders. Geb, KB and many others are nothing more than smiling filthy cheats and even the most PC brainwashed dopes realize this on some level but that brainwashing causes them to fight to the cognitive dissonance with all of their feminized might.

rekrunner wrote:

I searched worldwide, over the entire period of 28 years, looking for just 5 non-African athletes that outperformed 1980's era runners.

Oh man. Most of us will be able to name more than 5 without even thinking. Easily. The most obvious one being Paula R. And you need a worldwide search?

...

Let me guess. You will now restrict this to male white 800 m runners or something like that, right?

Oooh. "surreal sophistry", "inane premise", and "promulgating". Let me get my Oxford English dictionary, because the American Heritage one isn't working. Please feel free to select a different dataset, with different premises, and a different definition of fast, that shows what "clearly worked" on top non-African performances during the EPO-era. Please feel free to show, without committing any logical fallacies, how the history and success of any convicted doper, e.g. Ramzi, proves that athletes like El G achieved even better success the same way.

Small samples sets also forms the basis for "EPO works for everyone everywhere for all talent levels".

Do we see that confirmed in the real world, from a complete record of historical performances?

I assumed what -- a differential effect of EPO on different ethnic backgrounds? Even the Oxford dictionary doesn't help me now. Same effect, or different effect, or small effect, or large effect, or no effect, or negative effect, please do the right analysis with the right premises, the right data set, the right definitions, to show what "clearly worked" for the best non-Africans outside of Africa during the EPO-era.

Actually I was arguing that some non-dopers got faster without drugs.

rekrunner wrote:

We do not rank performances by HgB and VO2max, nor do we compensate based on baseline Hgb and VO2max.

We measure performance with time.

I did not bring up Ramzi again, "Voice of Reason" did.

I don't consider's Ramzi's improvement extraordinary. I expect improvements to come with training.

Andrew Wheating had a similar improvement before Monaco 2010 . I'm sure these kind of breakthroughs happen a lot.

I'm not convinced that "The training stimulus effect from O2-vector doping" allows you "to push through barriers that the athlete couldn't have accomplished clean resulting in improved performance", unless you mean mental barriers.

Riccardo Ricco tested positive for CERA in July 2008 when it became well known that a new test existed. Ramzi was ill-advised.

FFS...performance isn't only measured by raw time. Why in the hell do you think they stripped Ramzi of the gold at Beijing? His winning time was off a couple of seconds from his PB but he cheated and beat about four other guys who had faster PBs. Do you think these guys just sat back and let him win on the world's biggest stage? Btw, Wheating's improvement isn't the same as Ramzi's 3:44/02 - 3:39/03 - 3:30/04 & PB of 3:29/06 (of course nothing to see there & those crazy off-scores at Helsinki must have been from dehydration or something. ?).

And if "time" is only your only precious measurement O2-vector doping effectiveness, then look at Shobukhova's 2nd fastest ever marathon "time" behind Radcliff's WR where her ABP showed an astronomically high off-score of *153* and Hgb so high that one anti-doping expert described it as indicative of a freaking medical emergency! Oh...but wait a minute - there's nothing to see there because wasn't Russia experimenting with new high-tech aerodynamic bun huggers around that time period? ???

rekrunner wrote:

You are reading it correctly -- but just because something is written, doesn't mean it's true. You are right to say "unbelievable".

A few people misunderstood a long defense of the IAAF's response and established anti-doping science, as an over the top defense of Paula, and some bright bulb assumed only Paula's husband would do that.

Or it was designed to be some kind of distraction or deflection mechanism.

I'm an American in Europe, with no connection to Paula or Gary.

Who cares.

Let's not confuse an "anti-doping" problem with a "doping" problem. Africa has out-of-competition testing today, and has always had it, since, I'll take your word, 1988. Around 2002, the IAAF introduced OOC testing for EPO, also in Africa. These tests are based on urine. There are frequent OOC tests for urine in Africa. In 2009, the IAAF adopted a new kind of testing, the ABP, based not on urine, but on blood. The issue with OOC testing in Africa, is not the 1988 OOC testing, or the 2002 OOC EPO testing. The issue today is the difficult logistics of getting the blood to an approved lab in time, something that only become relevant since 2009. Historically, for two decades, the lack of EPO testing and the ability to beat EPO, was not limited to Africa: - No EPO testing existed for ALL nations, either in-competition, or out, before Sydney 2000. - Then urine based EPO testing was easy to beat, for ALL nations, both IC and OOC, until the ABP 2009. If the "anti-doping = doping" hypothesis were true, shouldn't we see that reflected in performances worldwide for two decades, and then a slowdown in non-African times in 2009? But fair question. One of the top reasons I dismiss the "lack of testing" argument is the long list of success of African athletes who have emigrated to places with regular testing: Wilson Kipketer, Sammy Wanjiru, Khalid Khannouchi, Abdi Abdirahman, Meb Keflezighi, Sam Chelenga, Edward Cheserek, Futsum Zeinasellassie, Mehdi Baala, Mahiédine Mekhissi-Benabbad, Hillary Bor, Paul Chelimo, Shadrick Kipchirchir, Leonard Korir, Stanley Kebenai, Sally Kipyego, Buzunesh Deba, ... That's just 17 (you said I could "expand the list") Africans that I could list without doing the research, that have risen to the top of non-African countries. I excluded Mo Farah, and Bernard Lagat and Alemayehu Bezabeh and athletes running for Qatar. The same question arises about "5 continents": why so few by so little? That would be an interesting analysis, to compare just the only Africans out of Africa with non-Africans, out of Africa, and see who comes out on top.

ALL CHEATERS wrote:

Find 1 - ONE African who approach those times (close or very close to WR) and that he don't LIVE in Africa and that is REGULARLY tested during whole season and live in a decent not a sh!thole country. That SIR "cheater" Mo "sh!thole" "door bell ring" went all the time in Africa so don't count that POS as well.

FYI OOC - OUT OF COMPETITION TESTING is introduced in 1988 - 1988 - 1988 and all nations must comply with that except those above SH!THOLE countries including JAMAICA, BAHAMAS etc.

All those countries should and must be bannied at all international competitions same as Russia did.

All above results and you can expand those list to first 50, 70 results are WORTHLESS

I'm not asking you to "not think", but to "think" -- these threads could be way shorter. I looked for the top 5 athletes per event. In total, I found 36 non-African men across six events (likely some are duplicates across events), and 103 women across five events (also may contain duplicates), that met my pre-1990's cutoff criteria. In both the mens 1500m, and 3000m steeple, I could only find 2 non-African athletes, and in the women's 1500m, 0 non-African and non-Chinese athletes. Despite the completeness of the source of the raw data (assuming "alltime-athletics" completeness), I was still curiously accused of using a small sample set, because I filtered out slower than 1990s performances, leaving me uncertain which data points to add to increase the sample size, without changing the focus of the discussion. See page 1 for a description of what I measured once I found the top-5. Paula made the list. See page 1 for important differences between men and women events. Specifically, for short distances like 1500m (and 800m) the pre-1990 performances were strong, while for longer distances, the performances were weak. You don't need to guess. I did not initially analyze 800m, but then, after some insistence, I repeated the same analysis (see page 2), finding 3 East African men, and 1 East African women.

casual obsever wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

I searched worldwide, over the entire period of 28 years, looking for just 5 non-African athletes that outperformed 1980's era runners.

Oh man. Most of us will be able to name more than 5 without even thinking. Easily. The most obvious one being Paula R. And you need a worldwide search?

...

Let me guess. You will now restrict this to male white 800 m runners or something like that, right?

I guess in field events, we measure performance in distance. In this thread I looked at performances, selected by best time, specifically relative to a top-5 average in 1990. Ramzi initially won the gold, because he had the fastest time in the final, and qualified based on times in the heats. He lost the gold because there are rules, and he got caught breaking the rules. His slow times from Beijing 2008, when he took CERA, rank below 830th best all time. They did not make the cutoff and were not part of my summary analysis. Time is my "precious measurement" of performance. I didn't measure doping O2-vector doping effectiveness. I did wonder about the role of EPO effectiveness for a rather large group that improved very little in time. Shobukhova's time was included in my women's summary. Shobukhova is now the 4th fastest ever, behind Paula Radcliffe, Mary Keitany, and Turinesh Dibaba. We know from Rodchenkov, that the Russians were also taking steroids in addition to O2-vector drugs. Steroids are highly effective on women. Shobukhova's time might measure O2-vector doping effectiveness, or it might not.

rekrunner wrote:

Despite the completeness of the source of the raw data (assuming "alltime-athletics" completeness), I was still curiously accused of using a small sample set, because I filtered out slower than 1990s performances,

It wasn't because of your filtering that you were accused of using a small sample set.

I think I see you problem now.

I'm not quite sure how to put this but: The sample set is small because it's small.

That is to say the number of people who are capable of running at this level, let alone the ones who actually do, is vanishingly small.

There could be any number of reasons why Europeans (in this case a tiny group of elite Europeans) appeared to get slower in the 90s or it could just be random. You can't infer anything about EPO use or effectiveness from such a dataset.

rekrunner wrote:

I'm not asking you to "not think", but to "think" -- these threads could be way shorter.

I looked for the top 5 athletes per event.

Maybe so. But then, you wrote categorically:

rekrunner wrote:

I searched worldwide, over the entire period of 28 years, looking for just 5 non-African athletes that outperformed 1980's era runners.

Not 5 per event, 5 worldwide.

And apparently, you found 139 such runners. Too funny.

Anyway. You wrote:

"these threads could be way shorter"

Hilarious. You remind me of Herman, getting mad because everybody else does it differently.

A senior citizen called her husband during his drive home.

"Herman, I just heard on the news that there's a car going the wrong way on Interstate 90, Please be careful!"

Herman said, "It's not just one car. There’s hundreds of them!"

Keep this up, this is fun!

amateur wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

Despite the completeness of the source of the raw data (assuming "alltime-athletics" completeness), I was still curiously accused of using a small sample set, because I filtered out slower than 1990s performances,

It wasn't because of your filtering that you were accused of using a small sample set.

I think I see you problem now.

I'm not quite sure how to put this but: The sample set is small because it's small.

That is to say the number of people who are capable of running at this level, let alone the ones who actually do, is vanishingly small.

There could be any number of reasons why Europeans (in this case a tiny group of elite Europeans) appeared to get slower in the 90s or it could just be random. You can't infer anything about EPO use or effectiveness from such a dataset.

The miler from Russia still holds the world record set in 1996 with ZERO testing for EPO.

Top 15 female milers of all-time:

1 4:12.56 Svetlana Masterkova RUS 17.01.68 1 Zürich 14.08.1996

2 4:14.30 Genzebe Dibaba ETH 08.02.91 1 Rovereto 06.09.2016

3 4:15.61 Paula Ivan ROU 20.07.63 1 Nice 10.07.1989

4 4:15.8 Natalya Artyomova RUS 05.01.63 1 Leningrad 05.08.1984

5 4:16.05 Genzebe Dibaba ETH 08.02.91 1 Lausanne 06.07.2017

6 4:16.56 Helen Obiri KEN 13.12.89 1 London 09.07.2017

7 4:16.71 Mary Slaney USA 04.08.58 1 Zürich 21.08.1985

7 4:16.71 Faith Kipyegon KEN 10.01.94 1 Bruxelles 11.09.2015

9 4:17.00 Natalya Artyomova RUS 05.01.63 1 Barcelona 20.09.1991

10 4:17.25 Sonia O'Sullivan IRL 28.11.69 1 Oslo 22.07.1994

11 4:17.33 Maricica Puica ROU 29.07.50 2 Zürich 21.08.1985

12 4:17.44 Maricica Puica ROU 29.07.50 1 Rieti 16.09.1982

13 4:17.57 Zola Pieterse GBR 26.05.66 3 Zürich 21.08.1985

14 4:17.75 Maryam Yusuf Jamal BRN 16.09.84 1 Bruxelles 14.09.2007

15 4:18.03 Laura Muir GBR 05.09.93 2 London 09.07.2017

It is just a coincidence.

rekrunner wrote:

I recall East African men, both seniors and juniors, started dominating cross-country in the 1980's before the arrival of Dr. Rosa, and Jos Hermens.

While Italian and Dutch drugs is one popular way to explain East and North African success, this completely sidesteps addressing my observed "anomaly":

- Why didn't the results of these successful drug experiments trickle out of Africa, like we saw in cycling?

I searched worldwide, over the entire period of 28 years, looking for just 5 non-African athletes that outperformed 1980's era runners.

You're being intentionally daft. I know you know at least something about statistical analytical methods, so you're not making the mistakes you're making here in anything resembling good faith.

The fact that Africans were at the top talent heap pre-EPO is not an argument against the efficacy of EPO. That's unforgivably bad reasoning.

You're using a false premise, knowingly so, when you pretend that the doping of Africans by shady European witch doctors was "an experiment" that did not have roots outside Africa. Rosa et al. know what would happen when they doped African

runners -- sociologically as well as physiologically. Not only would they dominate the other dopers from elsewhere in the world owing to their superior innate talent, but the world would resist the notion that East Africans were doping owing to a perverse blend of white guilt and occult racism ("They're happy and smiling and afraid of needles! They wouldn't even know it if their white coaches were juicing them anyway!"). Africa was thus a potential a gold mine for these turds in the athletic punch bowl. Add Hussein Makke to this mess.

The thing about your search for those magical five runners is that it is utterly ill-chosen. You are selecting your conclusion, looking for the exceptions among the exceptions, instead of sorting through the right data, and you're doing this strictly so that you can reject the hypothesis that EPO has been of significant benefit.

There are easy ways to analyze the right data longitudinally, looking at deep lists rather than just at record-holders. It is more instructive, in fact, to look at what's happened since the introduction of the ABP and useful EPO testing than it is to compare the pre-EPO and post-EPO-introduction eras, because one cannot argue that the Africans were not yet fully on the scene circa 2005 as one can do with respect too 1990 or 1991.

To anyone who knows a little about both running and statistics, you appear viciously ignorant.

+1